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Headline Economic Results

Headline Economic Results

Decreases of 1.9% in GDP and 1.1% in GNP in Quarter 3, Modified Domestic Demand flat

Online ISSN: 2009-5775
CSO statistical publication, , 11am
Table 1.1 GDP and GNP at constant 2021 prices, Q3 20231
 Amount €mQuarterly % change
Gross Domestic Product115,160-1.9
Gross National Product89,565-1.1
Modified Final Domestic Demand55,339-0.0
1Constant Market Prices, chain linked annually and referenced to year 2021, seasonally adjusted

Estimates for the third quarter of 2023 indicate that there was a decrease of 1.9% in GDP in real terms in Q3 2023 compared to the previous quarter while GNP fell by 1.1%. Modified Domestic Demand, a broad measure of underlying domestic activity that covers personal, government and investment spending was broadly flat in Q3. Looking at the first nine months of 2023, the economy contracted by 1.3% in GDP terms while in terms of GNP it expanded by 6.0% compared with the equivalent nine-month period in 2022. Compared with January to September 2021, GDP and GNP have both increased, by 7.7% and 10.0% respectively. In comparison with January to September 2020, GDP has increased by 24.3% and 24.9% in GNP terms. Compared with January to September 2019, a pre-COVID period, GDP has increased by 33.4% and 29.2% in GNP terms.

GDPGNP
Q1 202110.96566416942385.27160286724884
Q2 20212.676922455456633.07885813234619
Q3 20213.258139196868442.80755022557424
Q4 2021-2.914863741122153.17490133129292
Q1 20226.13183701125128-2.91171817860401
Q2 20222.437835187865423.93671363063512
Q3 20223.48772116146061-5.50838125414326
Q4 2022-1.578879895800289.96764319184038
Q1 2023-1.87823493738943-7.17217684484222
Q2 2023-0.36448620314856210.2735735808654
Q3 2023-1.91111709035228-1.0679782925745

Get the data: NAQ03

Industry (excl. Construction)Information & CommunicationProfessional, Admin & Support ServicesPublic Admin, Education & HealthDistribution, Transport, Hotels & RestaurantsReal Estate ActivitiesFinancial & Insurance ActivitiesConstructionAgriculture, Forestry & FishingArts, Entertainment & Other Services
Q2 202344.15513314821.81062369611.09530258910.80850602210.1983517656.3621837284.8180750312.3540469181.2408574831.022116845
Q3 202342.61152935422.48129731811.05710943311.01016707810.0806295526.4443492744.4101514132.3260245861.0500677381.003012319

Get the data: NAQ02

The MNE dominated sectors of the economy decreased by 3.8% overall in the third quarter of 2023. The MNE dominated Information & Communication sector recorded an increase of 3.1% in Q3 compared with the previous quarter, while in contrast the Industry (excluding Construction) sector fell by 3.5% in the quarter. The domestically facing Distribution, Transport, Hotels & Restaurants sector and the Construction sector both decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter while the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing sector posted a significant fall of 15.4% over the period compared with Q2 2023. Finance & Insurance contracted by 8.5% in Q3 while Professional & Administrative services declined by 0.3% in the quarter. The domestically dominated Public Administration, Education & Health sector posted an increase of 1.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2023 while the Real Estate sector expanded by 1.3%. The Arts & Entertainment sector recorded a decline of 1.9% over the same period. (See Tables 2.5 and 6.3). Looking at the first nine months results for 2023 compared with the equivalent period in 2022, the MNE dominated sectors contracted by 2.7% over the nine-month period while the Domestic-facing sectors grew by 4.0%. (See Table 6.2)

Personal Consumption ExpenditureGovernment ExpenditureGross Fixed Capital FormationValue of Physical Changes in StocksNet ExportsModified Final Domestic DemandGDP
Q1 202125.22071478211.22495477618.5736142962.12384960948.85298380746.441743581105.35824877
Q2 202128.8681113411.15996100519.9225815160.05747956349.26430402450.439003007108.17860739
Q3 202129.73904760710.84892575819.4598466633.13579461748.850797650.858828845111.703217
Q4 202129.93029289111.18518639338.839872582-0.10956058827.2290664452.492767379108.44722043
Q1 202230.08124463811.28568025121.4498987941.56717703450.6808695552.82386141115.09702723
Q2 202231.30817568411.47282866425.4121421583.86921801347.2980537256.040205637117.90290306
Q3 202231.47191971211.6351256727.9249197024.19840775346.0366579755.500846532122.01502756
Q4 202231.79925825211.59455156127.2216834-0.01113184746.8883546155.311352915120.08855682
Q1 202331.86001830411.17628793422.4568679762.54289760750.6409087255.166061999117.83301159
Q2 202332.10404370311.52363882923.2865674015.16133894242.7822709655.347198963117.40352652
Q3 202332.32034175211.72165653722.4279722973.92108406541.452135155.339034941115.15980766

Get the data: NAQ03, NAQ04NAQ05

On the expenditure side of the accounts (Table 3.5), Exports decreased by 2.1% in Q3 2023 compared with Q2 2023 while Imports fell by 1.7% which meant that overall net exports for the quarter contracted by 3.1% in Q3 compared with Q2 2023 or €1.3 billion lower in money terms quarter-on-quarter. Capital Investment fell by €2.1 billion during the quarter (a 7.4% decrease quarter-on-quarter) with the Capital Formation element falling by 3.7% reflecting lower levels of investment in Machinery & Equipment and Intangible Assets compared with the previous quarter. Capital Investment accounted for 37.4% of total domestic demand in Q3 2023. Government Expenditure on Current Goods and Services rose by 1.7% quarter-on-quarter with Personal Consumption Expenditure increasing by 0.7% in Q3 compared with the previous quarter. These impacts when combined resulted in an overall decline in Real GDP in Q3 2023 of 1.9%. Final Domestic Demand fell by 0.7% in Q3 compared with Q2 while Modified Domestic Demand was broadly unchanged over the same period.

Turning to the results for the first nine months of 2023, Exports fell by 2.9% over the period compared with the first nine months of 2022 or €14.0 billion in money terms. Imports decreased by 1.6% nine-months-over-nine months or by €5.3 billion in money terms. Overall Net Exports fell by 5.9% over the nine-month period compared with the equivalent period in 2022 or €8.6 billion in money terms. Personal Consumption Expenditure rose by 3.6% in the first nine months of 2023 compared with the same period of the previous year, Capital Investment contracted by 5.5% while Government Expenditure on Current Goods and Services was broadly unchanged over the same period.

GDPNet Factor Income from Rest of WorldGNP
Q1 2021105.35824877-28.2167214677.14152731
Q2 2021108.17860739-28.6620018979.516605497
Q3 2021111.703217-29.9541428681.749074134
Q4 2021108.44722043-24.1026938684.344526577
Q1 2022115.09702723-33.2083755781.888651664
Q2 2022117.90290306-32.7905296985.112373376
Q3 2022122.01502756-41.5909682180.424059356
Q4 2022120.08855682-31.6481141988.440442633
Q1 2023117.83301159-35.735673982.097337685
Q2 2023117.40352652-26.8718584490.53166808
Q3 2023115.15980766-25.5949981489.564809517

Get the data: NAQ03

Factor income outflows fell by 4.8% in the quarter, a decline of €1.3 billion in money terms compared with the previous quarter, leading to a fall in GNP of 1.1% for the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. For the first nine months of 2023 compared with the equivalent period of 2022, Factor income outflows fell by 17.8% or almost €19.4 billion in money terms.

The calculation methods for quarterly accounts are similar to those used in the Annual National Accounts. As some of the available sources are of lesser reliability than those used for the annual national accounts, the quarterly estimates are subject to a greater margin of error than the annual figures. These preliminary estimates will therefore be revised when the next detailed annual results are published.