Please note that in some cases categories referring to fewer than 50 total persons have not been included in the plots and commentary below, as this can result in volatile percentage shares. Any excluded categories are noted below the affected plot(s) and all counts can nevertheless be inspected in the relevant PxStat table.
This release uses an updated definition of non-progression relative to the previous release on this topic. The updated definition of progression considers transfers from one higher education institution to another to be considered progressed. An individual is only deemed to be non-progressed therefore if no enrolment record is detected in any other institution in the following academic year. This has a fairly small impact overall on the number of non-progressed new entrants, as can be seen in Table 5.1 in the Overview of Non-Progression chapter. For detail on the definition of a ‘new entrant’, please refer to the Background Notes.
It should be emphasised that only the immediately subsequent academic year is examined for an enrolment record and thus it is possible for a non-progressor to have re-enrolled in higher education in the year after this (and therefore be active in higher education one year on). As an example, a new entrant in 2020/21 who was not detected as enrolled in 2021/22 would be classified as a non-progressor in 2021. It is possible that this individual then re-enrols in 2022/23, in which case their outcome in calendar year 2022 would be determined as in education (either with or without substantial employment).
New entrants who did not progress from year one into year two, in accordance with the above definition, are hereafter referred to as ‘non-progressors’.
Non-progression year refers to the year from which an individual was determined to have not progressed and refers to the latter of the two academic years. Thus, if a new entrant in 2020/21 was not re-enrolled in 2021/22, they would represent a non-progressor with a non-progression year of 2021, for whom one year since non-progression would refer to calendar year 2022, two years since non-progression to 2023, and so forth.
The majority of this report focuses on the latest cohort (those who were new entrants in 2022/23 and did not progress to the following academic year), exploring their outcomes one year on (in calendar year 2024). To provide a longitudinal view of changes over time, the 2018 non-progressors (those who were new entrants in academic year 2017/18) are also examined in some detail as for this cohort it is possible to assess their longer-term outcomes after non-progression.
To contextualise the remainder of this release, the numbers of new entrants and whether they progressed with their studies are presented below in Figure 1.1, noting that only those records with a valid PPSN are included, as it is only for this cohort that outcomes analyses are possible. The Overview of Non-Progression chapter of this release further explores the cohorts examined, presenting counts of non-progressors broken down by relevant variables, such as the NFQ level of their original course of study.
This section describes the outcome destinations of new entrants who did not progress (non-progressors) and how these destinations vary across different fields of study and levels of qualification.
There are five mutually exclusive categories to describe activity within each calendar year.
‘Employment only’ refers to those who meet the criteria for substantial employment or substantial self-employment and have no record of enrolment in an education source within the same year.
‘Employment and Education’ corresponds to non-progressors that meet the criteria for substantial employment or self-employment and show evidence of enrolment in education at some point within the same calendar year.
‘Education only’ refers to those that are enrolled in education but are not classified as being in substantial employment.
‘Neither Employment nor Education’ comprises individuals who were neither enrolled in education nor were involved in substantial employment within a given year but have some record in an administrative data source for that year. These individuals may have some record of non-substantial employment, may have claimed some benefit over the year, or may have shown activity in another administrative data source.
The remaining individuals are categorised as ‘Not Captured’, meaning that they could not be found in any of the administrative datasets for the year in question. Most of this group are assumed to have emigrated, but there is no definitive indicator of emigration available in the administrative data sources.
Although these categories are used in other education outcomes-related releases, as noted in the methodology page for the Educational Longitudinal Database, the specific data sources included in each of these categories and therefore their precise definitions can vary by individual publication. Please refer to the Background Notes in this release for further details.
In the most recent data, looking at the activity of 2023 non-progressors one year on, the most common outcome overall was ‘Employment only’, with this being the case for around 49% of the cohort. When including those also enrolled in education, 81% of non-progressors were in substantial employment.
Approximately 40% of non-progressors had enrolled in an education course one year after they had not progressed. This was increased from the 2018 cohort of non-progressors, of whom around 36% were detected as active in education.
As one year after non-progression for the 2019 and 2020 cohorts refers to calendar years 2020 and 2021, outcomes in these years may have been especially impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Comparing male and female non-progressors, male individuals were slightly less likely to be in substantial employment, this being the case for around 81% of males but 82% of females.
Notably, the proportion of non-progressors enrolled in education, regardless of whether they were also substantially employed, was greater for female non-progressors as compared to males, at 44% and 36% respectively.
Amongst the latest cohort, non-progressors from NFQ Level 7 were most likely to be in substantial employment (83%), as compared to those at NFQ Level 8 (81%) and Level 6 (78%).
However, non-progressors originally enrolled on NFQ Level 8 were the most likely to be enrolled in education, regardless of employment status, at 41%. This was greater than for those non-progressors originally studying on courses at NFQ Level 7 and Level 6, at 37% and 32% respectively.
Examining outcomes by the field of study of the original course pursued, around 89% of those who didn’t progress from ‘Services’ courses were in substantial employment one year on. This was the field of study with the highest rate of substantial employment, followed by Engineering, Manufacturing and Construction (85%) and Business, Administration and Law (84%).
Regardless of whether this was accompanied by substantial employment, non-progressors from Education courses were most likely to be subsequently enrolled in some form of education programme (50%). This was followed by those originally enrolled on Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries and Veterinary programmes and Social Sciences, Journalism and Information courses, at 47% and 43%, respectively.
Taking a longitudinal view of the 2017/18 cohort, for whom outcomes can be examined up to six years after they did not progress, individuals six years later were less likely to be in education (27%) compared to one year after (36%). At the same time, non-progressors were less frequently found to be in substantial employment (74%) as compared to the first year after non-progression (79%).
The proportion of the cohort ‘Not Captured’, meaning they showed no activity in the administrative datasets analysed, saw an increase from 4.4% one year after to 11.8% six years after non-progression. As noted, as it reflects a lack of activity in the administrative data analysed, this category may be suggestive of emigration, however there is no definitive indicator of this in the data.
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