Information note on the implications of COVID - 19 on the Retail Sales Index November 2021

Retail Sales Index

Data for the Retail Sales Index (RSI) is collected monthly from a sample of 1,600 retail enterprises. Despite difficult circumstances, many retailers have continued to supply us with information each month and we wish to thank all survey respondents for their ongoing support. 

November 2021 

When comparing November 2021 with November of previous year (2020), it should be noted that the country was under Level 5 COVID-19 restrictions for the whole of November 2020 with only essential retail open. As a result, the volume of retail sales fell in November 2020 by 12.0% compared to the previous month. In November 2021 there were no such restrictions and therefore some sectors are showing significant annual increases compared to November of last year.

Black Friday

In 2019 "Black Friday" occurred in the December reporting period while it fell in the November reporting period in 2020 and 2021.  The November 2019 reference period covered the 4 weeks from 27/10/19 to 23/11/19 which excluded 'Black Friday' which fell on 29th November 2019.  

Imputation

The Retail Sales Index is based on a matched sample of enterprises in consecutive months. Imputation is not normally carried out for smaller enterprises which have not returned data. In each sector several key companies are identified based on their significance to the sector (turnover). If key company data is not received on time for the Provisional results, then an estimate is made using trends shown by other similar companies and from other available data sources.

Auxiliary data sources have also been used to validate the results for November 2021 at retail business sector level. The CSO is satisfied that this range of information supports the trends estimated in the Retail Sales Index for November. The auxiliary sources used for imputation and validation purposes included:

• Published media and research reports on the retail sector 
• Government guidelines and announcements on restrictions and essential retail/services under Ireland’s Plan for Living with COVID-19
• Retailers’ websites, for information issued by non-responding companies about closure, continuation of trade, online trade, etc
• Published data on credit card and debit card spending compared to other periods
• Data from other CSO outputs

Seasonal Adjustment

The spending patterns since March 2020 have been an exception to the existing seasonal patterns. Seasonally adjusting the Retail Sales Index will be challenging until the scale and shape of the impact COVID-19 has on the time series is better understood. The seasonal adjustment models have been reviewed each month since March 2020 and have been changed as appropriate. Users should be aware that further observations, as data becomes available in the months ahead, and revisions to the seasonal adjustment models may result in revisions to the seasonally adjusted series. 

Thanking Respondents

The CSO wishes to thank all those enterprises who supplied their retail sales data for November 2021 and urge them to continue to do so for December and future months. Even if turnover is nil or very low, such information is still required to measure the trend in sales in each retail sector. The CSO will continue to monitor the range of supplementary information to derive the best estimate for retail sales in December. The December Retail Sales Index is planned for publication on 28th January 2022.

CSO publication, 07th January 2022, 11am