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For more information on this release:
E-mail: business_stats@cso.ie Stephanie Kelleher (+353) 21 453 5123
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 On-line ISSN 2009-5295

This release has been compiled during the COVID-19 crisis. The results contained in this release reflect some of the economic impacts of the COVID-19 situation. For further information see Information Note Retail Sales Index September 2020 Information note on the Implications of COVID - 19 on the Retail Sales Index September 2020

 

CSO statistical release, , 11am

Retail Sales Index

September 2020 (Provisional) August 2020 (Final)

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Index - All Businesses
 (Base Year 2015 = 100)
     Volume IndexValue Index
September 2019119.9112.0
August 2020129.6118.0
September 2020131.5120.0
Monthly % change1.51.7
Annual % change9.77.2

Volume of Retail Sales increased by 1.5% in September 2020

Figure 1 Retail Sales Index - Seasonally Adjusted Volume
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The volume of retail sales increased by 1.5% in September 2020 when compared to August 2020 on a seasonally adjusted basis. On an annual basis, retail volumes were 9.7% higher in September 2020 compared with September 2019. See Table 1.

When Motor Trades are excluded, the volume of retail sales increased by 1.0% in September 2020 over the previous month and increased by 7.4% when compared with September 2019. See Table 2. 

The largest monthly volume increases were in Motor Trades (+5.7%), Hardware, Paints & Glass (+4.2%), Clothing, Footwear & Textiles (+3.1%). The monthly volume of sales fell in Bars (-16.0%) and Furniture & Lighting (-1.6%).

Compared with September 2019, the volume of retail sales is still lower in Bars (-49.3%), Books, Newspapers and Stationery (-11.6%), Fuel (-10.2%) and Department Stores (-0.6%). The volume of retail sales was higher in September 2020 compared to the same period of last year in Hardware, Paint & Glass (+31.3%), Electrical Goods (+29.6%), Other Retail Sales (+23.9%), Motor Trades (+17.6%), Furniture & Lighting (+17.0%), Food, Beverages & Tobacco (+12.4%), Non-Specialised Stores (incl. Supermarkets) (+8.9%), Pharmaceuticals, Medical and Cosmetic Articles (+6.0%) and Clothing, Footwear & Textiles (+3.9%). See Table 3.

As the volume of in-person shopping increased with shops reopening, the proportion of total retail sales transacted online has fallen from the high of 15.3% recorded in April to 4.3% in September. See Tables 6 and 7.

The value of retail sales was 1.7% higher in September 2020 than in August. The annual change in the value of retail sales was an increase of 7.2%. Excluding Motor Trades, the value of retail sales increased by 0.4% in the month and grew by 2.2% on an annual basis.

Unadjusted indices are available on CSO Statbank.

Business SectorsAnnual changeMonthly change
All Businesses9.71.5
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades7.41
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars10.81.1
Motors & Fuel14.25
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars12.21.7
Food Businesses9.30.1
Non-Food (excl. Motor trades, Fuel & Bars)15.25.4
Household Equipment26.92.2
Books, Newspapers, Stationery & Other Goods18.41.8
Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales1
        Base Year: 2015=100
  Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
   Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
2015Year 100.2   100.3  
2016Year 104.95.05.0 107.87.97.9
2017Year 106.51.51.5 112.03.93.9
2018Year 109.42.72.7 116.23.83.8
2019Year110.51.01.0 118.62.12.1
         
20184th quarter 109.9-1.33.1 116.9-1.03.6
         
20191st quarter108.8-0.92.7116.5-0.33.3
 2nd quarter110.31.40.1118.21.51.4
 3rd quarter110.70.4-0.5118.70.40.6
 4th quarter 112.11.32.1120.81.73.4
         
20201st quarter105.8-5.6-2.8114.1-5.5-2.1
 2nd quarter 83.6-21.0-24.292.6-18.9-21.7
 3rd quarter2 118.541.77.0129.740.19.3
         
2019April110.81.31.6118.61.13.5
 May110.1-0.60.2117.9-0.70.9
 June 110.10.0-1.4118.20.3-0.2
 July 109.4-0.6-4.4117.2-0.9-2.8
 August110.91.41.0119.21.72.2
 September 112.01.01.9119.90.62.4
 October 112.60.51.8121.31.23.3
 November 111.2-1.20.7119.8-1.21.9
December 112.61.23.8121.31.24.9
         
2020January 111.1-1.35.3119.7-1.35.4
 February  110.8-0.3-0.7118.8-0.80.0
 March 95.5-13.8-12.6104.0-12.5-11.4
 April 60.8-36.3-45.166.8-35.8-43.7
May 79.731.0-27.688.432.4-25.0
 June 110.338.40.2122.638.73.7
 July 117.66.67.5128.14.59.3
August118.00.36.4129.61.18.7
September2120.01.77.2131.51.59.7
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2020    
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 2 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales (Excluding Motor Trades)1
        Base Year: 2015=100
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined (Excl Motor Trades)
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
   Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
2015Year 100.2   100.3  
2016Year 101.21.81.8 104.44.94.9
2017Year 104.73.53.5 110.55.85.8
2018Year 107.22.42.4 114.63.73.7
2019Year 109.72.32.3 119.64.44.4
          
20184th quarter 108.1-0.11.9 116.00.63.1
          
20191st quarter 109.20.93.9 118.42.05.7
 2nd quarter 109.90.72.6 119.40.94.2
 3rd quarter 110.10.21.7 119.90.43.9
 4th quarter 109.6-0.41.4 120.30.33.7
          
20201st quarter 108.7-0.9-0.5 119.8-0.41.2
 2nd quarter 93.0-14.4-15.3 105.3-12.1-11.9
 3rd quarter2 112.520.92.2 127.721.36.5
          
2019April 111.01.06.1 120.31.37.2
 May 109.5-1.41.7 119.1-1.03.2
 June 109.2-0.20.2 119.0-0.12.1
 July 109.80.51.9 119.80.74.3
 August 109.90.11.8 119.70.03.9
 September 110.60.61.5 120.10.33.5
 October 109.8-0.71.1 120.20.13.6
 November 109.1-0.70.0 119.5-0.62.3
 December 110.10.93.1 121.21.45.1
          
2020January 109.9-0.22.0 120.9-0.23.1
 February 109.1-0.7-0.7 120.1-0.70.8
 March 107.0-1.9-2.6 118.4-1.4-0.2
 April 81.5-23.8-26.6 90.3-23.8-24.9
 May 90.010.5-17.7 102.413.4-14.1
 June 107.619.5-1.5 123.220.43.6
 July 112.04.12.0 126.42.55.5
 August 112.50.52.4 127.71.16.7
 September2 113.00.42.2 129.01.07.4
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2020    
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 3 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - Provisional Results September 2020
   Base Year: 2015=100
 September 2020
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
 IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change
Motor Trades136.74.718.6 141.05.717.6
Non-Specialised Stores (incl. Supermarkets) 124.1-0.27.3 132.10.28.9
Department Stores 84.81.0-5.5 104.11.8-0.6
Food, Beverages & Tobacco112.00.510.0 125.41.012.4
Fuel97.5-2.5-13.6 97.61.9-10.2
Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles115.50.45.2 131.30.66.0
Clothing, Footwear & Textiles104.52.9-1.2 120.53.13.9
Furniture & Lighting148.6-1.711.9 191.0-1.617.0
Hardware, Paints & Glass156.74.227.6 176.14.231.3
Electrical Goods139.82.721.1 225.32.829.6
Books, Newspapers & Stationery92.73.2-11.6 90.12.5-11.6
Other Retail Sales107.01.35.7 136.42.423.9
Bars 56.1-13.3-48.3 51.5-16.0-49.3
All Businesses 120.01.77.2 131.51.59.7
    Combined Groups       
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades113.00.42.2 129.01.07.4
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars116.80.75.8 134.51.110.8
Motors & Fuel131.23.614.9 134.45.014.2
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars118.11.06.9 137.51.712.2
Food Businesses123.4-0.37.7 131.40.19.3
Non-Food excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars114.01.66.5 144.55.415.2
Household Equipment145.41.220.7 203.12.226.9
Books, Newspapers, Stationery & Other Goods104.91.73.0 129.51.818.4
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2020, individual series are independently adjusted    
2See Background Notes for further detail       
Table 4 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - Final Results August 2020
   Base Year: 2015=100
 August 2020
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
 IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change
Motor Trades130.63.415.9 133.44.713.8
Non-Specialised Stores (incl. Supermarkets) 124.30.28.3 131.90.39.7
Department Stores 84.011.2-7.9 102.313.8-3.8
Food, Beverages & Tobacco111.4-1.310.2 124.1-1.411.8
Fuel99.94.3-8.1 95.80.3-5.8
Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles115.10.36.6 130.51.38.0
Clothing, Footwear & Textiles101.6-4.7-5.6 116.9-1.6-2.0
Furniture & Lighting151.21.218.3 194.11.722.9
Hardware, Paints & Glass150.4-0.524.0 169.00.926.8
Electrical Goods136.1-0.418.7 219.11.426.9
Books, Newspapers & Stationery89.821.8-13.9 87.922.5-13.9
Other Retail Sales105.70.45.1 133.10.720.3
Bars 64.717.4-39.7 61.223.5-39.8
All Businesses 118.00.36.4 129.61.18.7
    Combined Groups       
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades112.50.52.4 127.71.16.7
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars116.00.55.6 133.00.99.8
Motors & Fuel126.62.713.0 128.04.212.1
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars116.90.46.3 135.20.910.5
Food Businesses123.8-0.88.8 131.30.49.9
Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)112.20.44.3 137.01.710.6
Household Equipment143.81.519.9 198.82.025.4
Books, Newspapers, Stationery & Other Goods103.22.61.9 127.22.314.6
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2020, individual series are independently adjusted   
2See Background Notes for further detail       
Table 5 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - 3 Monthly Provisional Estimates
 (Provisional Estimates)  Base Year: 2015=100
 July 2020 - September 2020
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
 Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
Motor Trades131.687.317.0 134.587.715.6
Non-Specialised Stores (incl. supermarkets) 124.2-5.28.0 131.9-4.99.2
Department Stores 81.771.5-9.7 99.172.2-6.0
Food, Beverages & Tobacco112.1-0.811.2 125.1-0.313.0
Fuel97.739.9-12.0 96.437.5-9.1
Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles115.212.44.9 130.313.05.4
Clothing, Footwear & Textiles104.3133.1-1.8 118.9129.91.4
Furniture & Lighting149.7100.815.8 191.9100.020.5
Hardware, Paints & Glass153.129.622.9 171.233.925.6
Electrical Goods137.744.919.6 220.646.327.6
Books, Newspapers & Stationery86.0124.2-17.6 83.8122.3-17.5
Other Retail Sales106.122.45.9 134.122.122.6
Bars 58.5338.7-45.4 53.9336.0-46.0
All Businesses 118.541.77.0 129.740.19.3
    Combined Groups       
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades112.519.52.2 127.819.86.6
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars116.116.35.5 133.217.89.8
Motors & Fuel127.475.214.1 128.978.112.9
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars117.215.66.6 135.717.510.9
Food Businesses124.0-2.98.5 131.2-4.09.7
Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)112.844.65.2 139.244.111.9
Household Equipment143.846.819.5 199.248.125.1
Books, Newspapers, Stationery & Other Goods103.125.72.2 127.224.816.6
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to September 2020, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Background Notes for further detail
Table 6 Percentage of Turnover generated by Online Sales1 for Total Retail Sales
  Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined
Period  % sales online
2019Year 3.3
    
20191st quarter2.9
 2nd quarter3.1
 3rd quarter3.3
 4th quarter3.8
    
20201st quarter3.7
 2nd quarter11.7
 3rd quarter24.9
    
2019January 2.8
 February 3.0
 March 3.0
 April3.0
 May2.9
 June3.4
 July3.4
 August3.2
September3.2
October 3.4
November 4.0
December4.1
    
2020January3.2
 February 3.5
 March4.5
 April15.3
 May13.2
 June6.7
 July 4.6
 August 4.5
 September2 4.3
1Only enterprises registered in Ireland are included
2Provisional subject to revision
Table 7 Percentage of Turnover generated by Online Sales for 13 Retail Businesses1 - Provisional Results September 20202
 September 2019 August 2020 September 2020
Retail Business - NACE REV 2% Sales Online % Sales Online % Sales Online
Motor Trades1.6 2.2 2.1
Non-Specialised Stores (incl. Supermarkets) 1.8 2.1 2.1
Department Stores 3.8 7.0 7.2
Food, Beverages & Tobacco1.1 3.7 3.5
Fuel* * *
Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles* * *
Clothing, Footwear & Textiles5.2 7.7 9.7
Furniture & Lighting *  * *
Hardware, Paints & Glass* * *
Electrical Goods9.9 14.7 13.9
Books, Newspapers & Stationery* * *
Other Retail Sales3.2 7.4 6.5
Online or Mail Order83.2 87.4 79.0
Bars * * *
All Businesses 3.2 4.5 4.3
    Combined Groups     
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades5.0 5.5 5.2
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars5.6 6.2 5.9
Food Businesses1.7 2.2 2.3
Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)8.9 9.4 8.9
Household Equipment6.3 9.3 8.2
Books, Newspapers, Stationery, Other Goods and Online21.4 18.2 15.6
1See Background Notes for further detail
2Provisional based on early returns from sample retailers
*Data supressed for confidentiality reasons

Background Notes

Retail Sales Index

An updated Retail Sales Index (RSI) has been introduced in the January 2018 release. The underlying methodology remains unchanged. The index is primarily intended to measure short-term trends.  For long term analysis, allowance must be made for the fact that the series does not reflect changes in retail structures between updates.

Reference Period

The August period covers the 4 weeks from 02/08/20 to 28/08/20 and the September 2020 period covers the 5 weeks from 29/08/20 to 02/10/20.

Base Year

This set of monthly retail sales indices has been compiled with reference to base year 2015=100. The underlying structural weighting system is mainly based on the 2015 Annual Services Inquiry. Weights are updated from year to year using ratios of average weekly turnover by size class within business type.

Scope and Coverage

The Retail Sales Index covers, on a matched sample basis, the retail sales of retail businesses, wholesale businesses with sizeable retailing activity, and the separate sales establishments of non-distribution enterprises. Excluded from the index coverage are the direct retail sales from non-distribution establishments together with the incidental retail sales of wholesale businesses. Also excluded are sales by hawkers, street stalls, and other retailing activities not conducted from permanent business premises. The RSI does include internet/online sales of enterprises which have a presence in Ireland but these sales are included under the primary activity of the enterprise, e.g. online grocery sales are included in Non Specialised Stores. The statistical unit used for reporting sales figures in this inquiry is the enterprise (i.e. complete business covering all branches).  Online retailers not registered in Ireland but selling to Irish Residents are not within the scope of the Irish RSI. 

Methodology

The business categories are based mainly on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE Rev. 2). The index system is structured on the retailing enterprises covered in the 2015 Annual Services Inquiry classified by 13 retail business categories and four turnover (excluding VAT) ranges. The following NACE Rev.2 categories apply:

  • Motor Trades - Sale, maintenance and repair of new and second-hand vehicles and motorcycles (NACE 45)
  • Non-Specialised Stores - Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating - mainly supermarkets (NACE 47.11)
  • Department Stores -  Retail sale of a large variety of goods of which food products, beverages or tobacco are not predominant activities of the department stores. Retail sale of a general line of merchandise, including wearing apparel, furniture, appliances, hardware, cosmetics, jewellery, toys, sports goods, etc. (NACE 47.19)
  • Food, Beverages & Tobacco -  Retail sale of fruit and vegetables, meat and meat products, fish, crustaceans and molluscs, bread, cakes, flour and sugar confectionery, and beverages in specialised stores (NACE 47.2)
  • Fuel - Retail sale of fuel and lubricating products and cooling products for motor vehicles and motorcycles. Excludes wholesale of fuels (NACE 47.3)
  • Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles - Retail sale of pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopaedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles in specialised stores (NACE 47.73 - 75)
  • Clothing, Footwear & Textiles – Retail sale of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods in specialised stores (NACE 47.51, 47.71 – 72)
  • Furniture & Lighting - Retail sale of furniture, lighting equipment and other household articles in specialised stores (NACE 47.59)
  • Hardware, Paints & Glass - Retail sale of hardware, paints and glass in specialised stores (NACE 47.52)
  • Electrical Goods – Retail sale of information and communication equipment, computers, peripheral units and software, telecommunications equipment, audio and video equipment and electrical household appliances in specialised stores (NACE 47.41-43, 47.54)
  • Books, Newspapers & Stationery – Retail sale of books excluding second-hand or antique books, retail sale of office supplies such as pens, pencils, paper, etc. (NACE 47.61 -.62)
  • Other Retail Sales – Retail sale of carpets, rugs, wall and floor coverings, music and video recordings, games and toys, flowers, plants, seeds, fertilisers, pet animals and pet food, jewellery, and other new goods in specialised stores. The retail sale activities via mail order or via Internet (NACE 47.53, 47.63-65, 47.76-8, 47.91)
  • Bars – Preparation and serving of beverages for immediate consumption on the premises (NACE 56.3)

 For a full NACE Rev2 breakdown of the above categories see attached link to the Retail Sales Index Methodological Documents.

The value indices are calculated by updating the aggregate 2015 retail turnover (including VAT) of these enterprises in these cells using the monthly retail sales data provided by the enterprise respondent panel from 2015 onwards.

The compilation of the index for a current month is based on the percentage change in average weekly sales in these cells over the corresponding monthly period of the previous year. The monthly volume indices are calculated by deflating the seasonally unadjusted value indices by specially constructed retail price indices derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A copy of the Retail Sales Index methodology is available on our website (www.cso.ie).

Seasonal Adjustment

All Retail Sales “unadjusted” series are trading day adjusted as they are based on either a standardised four or five week reporting period (see reference period note above). Seasonal adjustment is conducted using the direct seasonal adjustment approach.  Under this approach each individual series is independently adjusted, e.g. aggregate series are adjusted without reference to the component series. Each individual seasonally adjusted series is calculated based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2010 to the current period.

The adjustments are completed by applying the X-13-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau, to the unadjusted data. For additional information on the use of X-13ARIMA-SEATS see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/.

This methodology estimates seasonal factors while also taking into consideration factors that impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment, such as:

  • Calendar effects e.g. the timing of Easter
  • The phase shift effect i.e. the fact the reporting period of the RSI does not coincide with the calendar month
  • Outliers, temporary changes, and level shifts in the series
  • Seasonal breaks e.g. the introduction of the new number plate system in the Motor Trade sector which occurred in July 2013.  
Note: The Motor Trade group comprises all retail motor trade activities, of which new car sales accounts for approximately 70% of turnover.
 
COVID-19 note
Seasonally adjusting the Retail Sales Index will be challenging until the scale and shape of the impact of COVID-19 on the time series is better understood.  Each month the outliers are reviewed and updated as required. Users should be aware that further observations, as data becomes available in the months ahead, and revisions to the seasonal adjustment models may result in revisions to the seasonal adjusted series.
 
 Rebase 2015

The rebasing of the series is in line with EU recommendations to update the base reference periods at regular five-year intervals. This new series replaces the existing series to base year 2010 as 100.

The difference in the new rebased RSI series is the use of new cell and sector baseweights taken from the ASI 2015. The existing cell structure/breakdown was maintained in this series.

The new baseweights are updated each month using changes to respondents’ monthly turnover. The rebase also includes the reclassification of enterprises based on their current product profile.

Detail of the methodology used in the RSI are available on  Methodological Documents page.

 Online Sales 

The collection of data for online turnover began in November 2018. Enterprises in the sample provide the value of their online turnover for the reporting period. As for all of the survey only Enterprises registered in Ireland are included. From the Annual Services Inquiry (2017) the Online and Mail Order Sector (G4791) registered in Ireland is estimated at 1.0% of all Retail Businesses. A fixed base weight is used from the Annual Services Inquiry (2017).

 Reference 

A detailed description of the Retail Sales Index is available on the Retail Sales Index page.  Retrospective details for the current and previous series are also available on the CSO website.

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