Recorded Crime Detection 2022

This chapter presents crime detection rates as follows:

1. ‘Initial’ crime detection rates for 2021 and 2022 which are those measured eight months after the end of each year. These shall be referred to as ‘Initial’.
2. ‘Updated’ crime detection rates for 2021 are those which are measured 19 months after the end of 2021. This shall be referred to as ‘Updated’.

Crime detection rates are presented in this format to allow time for crime investigations by AGS to progress before settling.

The chapter compares initial crime detection rates for 2021 and 2022 and charts how the detection rates for 2021 have changed a year on from the initial measure.

Overall, the initial crime detection rates for 2022 were at or just below the initial 2021 rates for most crime categories. However, when the initial detection rates for crimes reported in 2021 were updated a year later, there were more notable increases in detection rates for some offence groups such as Sexual offences, Homicide & Related offences and Controlled Drugs offences.

Crime detection rates for 2022 equal to or just below 2021 levels for most crime categories

The data shows that:

• The initial crime detection rate for 7 out of the 14 crime categories in 2022 were mostly between two and three percentage points below 2021 levels. This included among others, Homicides (-2% points), Assaults & Related offences (-2% points) and Sexual offences (-3% points).
• The initial crime detection rate in 2022 was the same as in 2021 for a further four crime categories which included for example, Robbery, Burglary and Weapons crimes.
• The initial crime detection rate for the remaining three crime categories was higher in 2022 than in 2021 which included for example, Fraud and Controlled Drug crimes. See Figure 2.1 and Table 2.1.

Nearly a fifth of Sexual offence crimes reported in 2021 were detected by September 2023

The data shows that for crimes reported in 2021 and 2022:

• The detection rate for Sexual offences reported in 2021 has increased from 12% to 19% over the year to September 2023. Meanwhile, the initial detection rate for those offences reported in 2022 currently stands at 9%.
• The detection rate for Homicide & Related offences reported in 2021 has increased from 76% to 87% over the year driven mainly by an increase in the detection rate for Murder, Manslaughter and Infanticide. The initial detection rate for these offences reported in 2022 currently stands at 74%.
• The rate of detection for Controlled Drugs offences reported in 2021 increased over the year from 82% to 89%. The initial detection for those offences reported in 2022 is 83%.
• The rate of detection for Weapons & Explosives offences reported in 2021 increased to 75% from 71%. The rate of detection for these offences reported in 2022 is currently 71%. See Table 2.2.

Earlier reporting periods generally tended to have higher detection rates for most crime

Crime incident detection rates for a reference period tend to increase for a time, as more investigations are completed, before settling.

This was the case for nearly all offence groups with the exception of Fraud, Deception & Related offences where the detection rate was much lower from Q2 2021 onwards. This reflected the much more elevated levels of this crime in 2021 and 2022 compared with earlier years.

Figure 2.2 and Table 2.3 below compares the measured detection rate for incidents reported on a quarterly basis in 2021 and 2022, based on data extracted on 01 September 2023.

In particular:

• Homicide & Related offences – 93% detection rate for such crimes reported in Q2 2021 compared with a 69% detection rate for crimes reported in Q2 2022.
• Sexual offences – 25% detection rate for crimes reported in Q1 2021 compared with a 12% detection rate for crimes reported in Q1 2022.
• Kidnapping & Related offences – 26% detection rate in Q1 2022 compared with 54% for those reported in Q1 2021.

The detection rate for Fraud, Deception & Related offences was 14% for crimes reported in Q1 2021 but shows a significant fall over the remainder of 2021 ending with a rate of 5% for those reported in Q4 2021. The detection rates for crimes reported in 2022 were slightly higher for Q2 to Q4 when compared with the same periods in 2021. See Figure 2.2 and Table 2.3.

This period had seen the volume of reported Fraud crime increase from 7,851 in 2020 to 17,091 in 2021 before falling back to 11,646 in 2022. Further information is available on PxStat table CJA01.