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These statistics are categorised as Under Reservation. This categorisation indicates that the quality of these statistics do not meet the standards required of official statistics published by the CSO. For further information please refer to the Statistics Under Reservation FAQs page.
The one-year probation re-offending rate for 2018 (28%) was marginally less than the same measure for 2017 (29%) and 2016 (31%).
Some 48% of individuals who received a probation order in 2016 committed at least one offence within three years for which they received a conviction.
More than one-third (36%) of young male adults (aged under 25 years) who received probation orders in 2018 re-offended within a year of receiving probation. In comparison, 27% of females also under the age of 25 re-offended within the same period.
There was a reduction between 2017 and 2018 in the re-offending rate of individuals serving probation for offences related to Assault or Harassment. In 2018, 17% were linked to a re-offence within one year of receiving probation compared to 23% in 2017.
Regionally, the highest level of re-offending (34%) involved probationers from the Mid-West (Clare, Limerick, and Tipperary) and South-West (Cork and Kerry) regions. In the Dublin region, where the highest number of probationers lived (1,535 of 4,999), 28% of probationers re-offended within a year.
The highest number of probation orders were issued in 2018 to individuals who committed offences related to Theft & Related offences (936 persons). This category also contained the joint highest one-year re-offending rate (including Public Order Related offences), with 38% of these individuals re-offending.
The Probation Re-offending Statistics publication provides information on the level of recorded re-offending by individuals placed under the management of the Probation Service. The information in this publication primarily relates to individuals who entered Probation Service supervision in 20181.
The probation re-offending rate is the percentage of individuals issued with a probation order during a reference year who were convicted of any crime incident that occurred within one, two or three years of the date of their probation sentence. The resulting conviction relating to the incident must then be obtained within two years of the date when the incident was recorded.
For example, if an offender was sentenced to probation on December 31st, 2015 and they committed an offence on December 31st, 2018 for which a conviction was obtained on or before December 31st, 2020 they would be classed as a re-offender.
| Within 12 months | Within 24 months | Within 36 months | |
| 2008 | 36 | 47 | 55 |
| 2009 | 34 | 46 | 53 |
| 2010 | 33 | 42 | 48 |
| 2011 | 30 | 41 | 47 |
| 2012 | 30 | 40 | 47 |
| 2013 | 28 | 39 | 45 |
| 2014 | 29 | 41 | 47 |
| 2015 | 30 | 40 | 49 |
| 2016 | 31 | 43 | 48 |
| 2017 | 29 | 41 | |
| 2018 | 28 |
1 To provide the timeliest measures of re-offending, statistics relating to one year measures of re-offending for individuals who received probation orders in 2018 are mainly focused on in this publication, allowing the analysis to come forward to cover the most recent data available (one year for re-offence from 2018 and a further two years allowed for any resulting court conviction).
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Statistician's Comment
Commenting, Felix Coleman, Statistician in the Crime and Criminal Justice Division, said: "Today’s publication provides annual estimates of the re-offending rates for probationers who received probation orders up to and including 2018. Additional insights are also provided in relation to the re-offenders age, sex, offence, and re-offence types. The most recent reference year included in this publication is 2018 because a minimum of three years is needed to establish a re-offending rate: one year for potential re-offences to take place, and two years for re-conviction.
Re-offending rates
Overall, probation re-offending estimates indicate a decline in re-offending by probationers between 2016 and 2018. In addition, the re-offending rate for 2018 (28%) was the joint lowest one-year re-offending rate measured since 2008 when the first estimates of probation re-offending were calculated. The overall reduction in re-offending has been mainly due to a reduction in the re-offending of individuals who received probation for offences relating to Assault or Harassment. In this group 17% of probationers re-offended in 2018 compared with 23% in 2017. What the analysis also shows is that the re-offence types that probationers were linked to were now less likely to be Road or Traffic (RTIs)-related. Around 18% of individuals that re-offended in 2018 did so in offences related to RTIs compared with 23% in 2017. Please see Probation Re-Offending 2017 Statistics for further information.
Re-offending within one year
The highest levels of re-offending from individuals who received probation in 2018 was among young adults. A little more than one-third (36%) of males and just over a quarter (27%) of females under the age of 25 re-offended within a year. In contrast, 14% of males and 21% of females aged over 45 re-offended in the same period after receiving probation although this age group accounted for just 607 people (12%) of the total 4,999 individuals who received probation during 2018.
Re-offending within three years
The three-year probation re-offending estimates provide a more comprehensive estimate of the levels of re-offending. To calculate this rate, three years for a re-offending incident and a further two years to allow for the associated court conviction need to elapse. In 2016, just under half (48%) of probationers re-offended within three years of receiving their probation order. This was one percentage point less than 2015 (49%) and seven percentage points less than 2008 levels when the three-year re-offending rate was well more than half (55%).
Regional differences
There was a significant difference in the re-offending rates regionally ranging from just over a fifth (21%) in the Mid-East, consisting of Kildare, Louth, Meath, and Wicklow to just over a third (34%) in both the Mid-West and South-West regions (consisting of Clare, Limerick, Tipperary, Cork, and Kerry). At county level Mayo (10%) and Roscommon (12%) had the lowest one-year re-offending rate while Tipperary (39%) had the highest re-offending levels from individuals issued with probation in 2018."