Probation Re-Offending Statistics 2018

Young adults are most likely to re-offend

Although the number of individuals aged less than 18 that received probation orders in 2018 was just 170 out of the total 4,999 issued (3%), it remained the most likely age category where re-offending took place. Over four in ten (41%) persons aged less than 18 re-offended within one year of receiving their probation order. In general, re-offending tends to reduce with age. The 2018 estimates indicate that just over a quarter (26%) of the 25-44 age category re-offended, with just 15% of the 45-64 age category re-offending within a year of receiving their probation order. See Figure 2.1 and Table 2.1.

Individuals issued with probation for offences linked to Theft or Public Order in 2018 tended to re-offend the most

In 2018, individuals that received probation orders relating to Theft (38%) or Public Order (38%) had the highest likelihood of re-offending, with almost four in ten of them doing so. While the 2018 re-offending rate for Public Order related probation was the same as 2017 (38%), there was a three percentage points rise in the 2018 re-offending rate for Theft (38%) when compared to the same category for 2017 (35%). See Table 2.1 and Figure 2.2.

Individuals who received Post Release Supervision Orders were the least likely to re-offend

The Probation Re-Offending Statistics includes individuals who received three broad types of court sanctions, Post Release Supervision Orders, Probation Orders or Community Service Orders depending on the circumstances of their cases. Out of the three types, individuals linked with a Post Release Supervision Order (16%) in 2018 were the least likely to re-offend. Post Release Supervision means that an offender is monitored when they are released from prison in order to comply with the conditions set out by their court outcome. Individuals who received a Probation Order (33%) in 2018 were most likely to re-offend within a year. See Table 2.1 and Figure 2.3.

Mayo and Roscommon had the lowest one-year re-offending rates

Mayo (10%) and Roscommon (12%) were the two counties with the lowest one-year re-offending rates and at NUTS 3 level. The Mid-East (21%) which consists of counties Kildare, Louth, Meath, and Wicklow had the lowest regional levels of re-offending. The Mid-West consisting of the counties Clare, Limerick, and Tipperary and the South-West consisting of counties Cork and Kerry had the highest level (34%) of one-year re-offending from probationers who received probation in 2018. See Map 2.1 and Table 2.2.

Most re-offending takes place in the 6 months following the probation order

Just over two-thirds (68%) of individuals who received a probation order in 2018 and who re-offended within one year did so in the first six months. Earlier re-offending was slightly higher for females (71%) than males (67%) although in 2018 the number of males (1,161) linked to probation orders remained significantly more than females (194). See Figure 2.4 and Table 2.3.

Most re-offending linked to Public Order Related offences

Individuals that re-offended within a year of receiving their probation orders in 2018 were most likely to carry out a re-offence related to Public Order & Other Social Codes, with almost a quarter (24%) of re-offending occurring for Public Order offences. This offence category includes threatening or abusive behaviour, disorderly conduct or failing to comply with the direction of An Garda Síochána. In contrast, no re-offending was linked to re-offences linked with Homicide, Sexual or Kidnapping related offence categories. See Figure 2.5 and Table 2.4.

Re-offenders linked with Fraud, Robbery or Property Damage were most likely to receive a custodial sanction for their re-offence

Overall, just under one-third (30%) of re-offences that took place within a year of probation resulted in a custodial sanction being issued by the courts. Re-offences related to Fraud (67%), Robbery (64%) and Damage to Property (58%) were the most likely to result in a custodial sanction while re-offences related to Public Order (11%) were less likely to result in a custodial sanction. See Figure 2.6 and Table 2.5.

Younger adults most likely to commit Public Order Related re-offences

Just over one-fifth (22%) of the re-offending that takes place within a year of probation by adults under 25 takes place in offences related to Public Order & Other Social Codes. Theft (17%) and Road & Traffic offences (17%) are the next most frequent re-offending offence types in young adults who re-offended within a year of receiving a probation order. See Table 2.6.