Prison Re-offending Statistics 2011 - 2018

To provide more timely estimates of re-offending, this chapter provides estimates that relate to custodial releases that took place in 2018. To provide these estimates it is necessary to only include offences that took place a year after release and where the offender has secured a court conviction resulting in reconviction within a further year. Although this method loses coverage of a proportion of re-offending incidents and resulting convictions (as we only look at one year rather than three years) it allows the analysis to come forward to reference year 2018, capturing as it does individuals released in 2018 who re-offend and secure a court conviction to end.

The 1-year re-offending indicator for 2018 (47.5 %) had an increase of less than half a percentage point when compared to the 1-year re-offending estimate for 2017 (47.2%) and a decrease of 6.5 percentage points when compared to the 1-year rate for 2011 (54.0%). See Table 4.1 and Figure 4.1.

The highest percentage rate of re-offending was in the under 21-year age category where 70.4% of individuals released from custody in 2018 re-offended within a year of release. Over 50’s was the least likely age group to re-offend (25.5%) a year after release. See table 4.2 and Figure 4.2.

The largest percentage of 1-year re-offending took place by individuals who were released from custody having committed offences relating to “Damage to property and the environment” with nearly two thirds (63.3%) re-offending within 1 year of release. Examples of offences in this category include criminal damage and arson. In contrast, 8.5% of individuals serving custodial sentences relating to Sexual offences re-offended within 12 months of release. See Table 4.3 and Figure 4.3.

The highest number of releases that occurred in 2018 related to individuals placed in custody for offences related to theft (605). Over half (58%) of this group re-offended within a year of being released. In contrast, the lowest number of releases in 2018 related to individuals serving custodial sentences related to Kidnapping and related offences (15), of which two out of five (40%) re-offended within a year of release See Table 4.3.

Out of the 1,323 persons who re-offended within a year of release in 2018, over a half (50.6%) re-offended in just 2 offence groups - Theft (331) or Public order related offences (339). See Table 4.4.

Data indicates that individuals released in 2018 who served a period in custody for 3 to 6 months prior to release were most likely to re-offend (60.8% of this group). In contrast, just over a third (35.3%) of individuals who served more than 12 months in custody re-offended within a year of release. See Table 4.5 and Figure 4.4.

Re-offences that result in a court conviction can be broadly categorised into whether they result in a custodial sanction or non-custodial sanction as part of the sentencing process for the re-offence. Using this method of measuring the significance of the re-offence, estimates indicate that overall two thirds of re-offenders (66.4%) who re-offended within a year of release received a further custodial sanction for their re-offence. See Table 4.6.

A more detailed breakdown showing which types of court outcomes are classified as custodial or non-custodial can be found in the Background Notes.

A further breakdown indicates that individuals convicted of re-offending in relation to Attempts/threats to murder, assaults, harassments and related offences had the highest likelihood of receiving a custodial sanction for their re-offence (80%), while individuals convicted of re-offences in relation to Robbery and related offences had the least likelihood of receiving a custodial sentence for their re-offence (25%). See Table 4.6 and Figure 4.6.