Population and Migration Estimates, April 2023

Coverage

The reference period for the population estimates is the end of April of each year. The migration flows are in respect of the twelve months to end April, while the births and deaths are for the 12 months ending Q1 of the reference year. The usually resident population classified by age, sex and NUTS 3 region for 2022 are taken from the Census of Population.

Usual residence population concept

For the purpose of this release the population concept of usual residence has been used, i.e. all people usually resident and present in the State on census night plus absent people who are usually resident in Ireland but are temporarily away from home and outside the State on census night. All people are classified according to their region of usual residence.  Up to and including 2005, the de facto population concept was used. It should be noted that those people from households that were fully temporarily absent outside the state on Census night are included in the 2022 data for the first time. As this group has not been included in the Population and Migration Estimates until 2022, the additivity of population change components has been impacted between 2021 and 2022. This will be particularly noticeable in table PEA15. 

Inter-censal Revisions

The pre-revisions population estimate for April 2022 was 5,100,200 which was approximately 35,000 people fewer than the comparable 2022 Census usually resident population (i.e. the Census usually resident population without the fully temporarily absent abroad households mentioned above). The components of population change were examined and analysed as part of the revisions process. 

Natural Increase

The General Registration Office (GRO) supplies registered data for births and deaths and these are typically added to the population file quarterly in arrears (N+1). As part of the revisions process data on the occurrence of the vital event in the correct quarter were applied and taken into account. 

International Migration

After the adjustment to the vital events, the residual provides a measure of the overall net migration for the six year inter-censal period. 

A detailed analysis of the Personal Public Service Numbers (PPSN) allocated to non-Irish citizens in a given year which still had either employment or social welfare activity the following year, combined with information on work permit issuance was utilised to assess and adjust migration flows.

Revisions to the immigration data also took account of the 2022 Census results on one year inflows and the recorded year of arrival of immigrants. Inward migration estimates for 2022 population estimate were adjusted upward to ensure accurate estimation of those who arrived to the end of April. 

Revisions to emigration have taken account the of work permits issued to Irish citizens to a number of destinations including Australia, USA, Canada and New Zealand. In addition, data on National Insurance numbers issued to Irish citizens in the UK were also incorporated in the revisions. 

For further details on the revision process, please contact the Population Estimates and Projections team at demography@cso.ie.

Definitions

De facto population concept - The census figures relate to the de facto population i.e. the population recorded for each area represents the total of all people present within its boundaries on census night, together with all people who arrived in the area the following morning having not been enumerated elsewhere.  The figures, therefore, include visitors present on Census Night as well as those in residence, while usual residents temporarily absent from the area are excluded.

Natural Increase - the natural increase is the difference between the number of births and the number of deaths recorded over a period.

Immigration - means the action by which a person establishes his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months, having previously been usually resident in another Member State or a third country.

Emigration - means the action by which a person, having previously been usually resident in the State, ceases to have his or her usual residence in the State for a period that is, or is expected to be, of at least 12 months.

Net Migration - the difference between immigration into and emigration from the State during the reference period.

Principal source of Migration data 

The principal source of information for the estimation of the gross annual migration flows is the Irish Labour Force Survey (LFS), which also provides the basis for the classification of the flows by sex, age group, origin/destination and citizenship.

In the past, this release also provides estimates of immigration and emigration by educational attainment and principal economic status, based on responses in the LFS. However, there is now a significant number of immigrants living in communal establishments and therefore outside the scope of the LFS sampling frame which samples private households. For the purpose of the Population and Migration Estimates, this group of people are estimated using administrative data. Accurate estimation of educational attainment and principal economic status is difficult for this cohort and the methodologies are currently being investigated to allow the publication of these tables to continue.

Other sources of migration data

The migration estimates are compiled with reference to movements in other migration indicators such as the number of Personal Public Service (PPS) numbers allocated to non-Irish citizens. Typically between 60% - 70% of non-Irish citizens issued with a PPSN in a given year, remain active the year following issue.

PPSN's issued to non-Irish citizens
	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Dec	Total
2018	10,217	9,592	8,743	9,970	10,424	9,851	11,092	11,254	11,387	12,332	10.982	7.203	123,047
2019	10,212	10,210	10,357	9,687	10,557	8,750	11,273	9,858	11,972	12,122	12,339	8,427	125,764
2020	10,050	10,130	6,186	2,887	3,963	3,428	3,294	2,987	3,244	3,815	8,166	10,764	68,914
2021	10,051	9,100	7,070	5,623	5,554	5,546	6,310	6,680	9,676	14,359	15,175	8,459	103,703
2022	8,731	12,187	29,737	24,370	24,277	22,553	20,215	18,378	18,841	20,217	21,941	15,642	237,089
2023	17,789	18,213	18,881	15,740	15,606	15,483	18,191	16,705

Stocks of residence permits issued to 3rd country citizens are also examined for coherence purposes (see table below).  Note that while residence permits are generally required for those aged 15 years and over, the population stock of 3rd country citizens in the estimates applies to all ages.

Total stock of residence permits for 3rd country citizens - required for people aged 15 and over
	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Total Stock	110,927	128,066	142,286	168,297	155,317	169,686

The number of visas issued to Irish citizens to a number of destinations including Australia, USA and Canada are compared with the emigration data collected by the LFS.  In addition, data on National Insurance numbers (equivalent to PPS numbers) issued to Irish citizens in the UK is also examined.

Calculation of annual population estimates

The annual population estimates for April are calculated by trending forwards the previous Census of Population data. For example, the base population data for estimating the April 2023 figure was the number of males and females in each region by single year of age and citizenship as established by the 2022 Census. From this base, each person was aged by one year, births for the period were added and deaths were subtracted. The estimated number of immigrants was then added and the number of emigrants was subtracted. Allowance was also made for estimated inter-regional migration in arriving at the final 2023 figures.

The end result of this overall process provided the population estimate for April 2023 which in turn will provide the base population for the subsequent year and so on. The population estimates are subject to revision once the definitive results of the census become available. This revision to the intercensal period of 2017-2022 took place over the last number of months. 

The population by citizenship estimates are made possible by trending forwards the previous Census of Population and incorporating gross migration flows by citizenship based on responses in the LFS. Allowance is also made for the non-Irish citizens who acquire citizenship certificates over the period in question. The number of births by citizenship estimated using the distribution of the citizenship of births as recorded in the 2016 Census, while deaths by citizenship are also estimated based on recent census results using the citizenship distribution of the population by five year age groups.

Internal migration

By examining a person's usual residence at the time of a census and one year previously it is possible to determine inter-regional migration patterns. Following the Census a new internal migration matrix was produced and used to measure inter-censal internal migration. Internal migration for the year to April 2023 takes account of the Census 2022 results. This internal migration pattern will be utilised going forward. 

Citizenship

The question on nationality in the most recent Census was changed to capture information on the country of citizenship. All people with Irish citizenship are classified under the category "Irish" in PXSTAT table PEA25 (Estimated population classified by sex and nationality).

The Irish Naturalization and Immigration Service provide annual data for people who acquire Irish citizenship. The availability of the citizenship data for year N is N+2 and so estimates for 2018 and subsequent years will be achieved by trending forward the rates noted for the most recent year available.  Therefore, for the purpose of the 2022 release the 2020 distribution of citizenship acquisitions was applied.

Citizenship Certificates issued
	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
UK	55	51	54	98	529	687	665	945
Rest of EU 14	91	149	145	170	169	202	133	113
EU 15 to 27	1,615	2,725	2,921	3,058	3,022	3,024	2,012	1,700
Rest of World	22,482	18,177	10,443	6,712	4,474	4,310	2,981	2,716
Total	24,243	21,102	13,563	10,038	8,196	8,223	5,791	5,474

NUTS2 and NUTS3 Regions

The Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) were created by Eurostat in order to define territorial units for the production of regional statistics across the European Union. In 2003 the NUTS classification was established within a legal framework (Regulation (EC) No 1059/2003).

As the administrative territorial breakdown of EU Member States is the basis of the NUTS classification, changes made under the 2014 Local Government Act prompted a revision to the Irish NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 Regions. These changes included the amalgamation of the local authorities of Tipperary North and South, Limerick City and County Councils and Waterford City and County Councils. In addition three Regional Assemblies were established (Northern & Western, Southern, Eastern & Midland).

The main changes at NUTS 3 level are the transfer of South Tipperary from the South-East into the Mid-West NUTS 3 region and the movement of Louth from the Border to the Mid-East NUTS 3 Region. There are now three NUTS 2 Regions which correspond to the Regional Assemblies established in the 2014 Local Government Act and are groupings of the new NUTS 3 Regions. The revisions made to the NUTS boundaries have been given legal status under Commission Regulation (EU) 2016/2066. The new NUTS 2 and NUTS 3 structure and classification are displayed in the table below:

Northern & Western NUTS2 Region		Southern NUTS2 Region		Eastern & Midland NUTS2 Region
NUTS3	Constituting Counties	NUTS3	Constituting Counties	NUTS3	Constituting Counties
Border	Cavan Donegal Leitrim Monaghan Sligo	Mid-West	Clare Limerick Tipperary	Dublin	Dublin City Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown Fingal South Dublin
		South-East	Carlow Kilkenny Waterford Wexford	Mid-East	Kildare Louth Meath Wicklow
West	Galway Mayo Roscommon	South-West	Cork Kerry	Midland	Laois Longford Offaly Westmeath