This report provides projections of both the total population classified by age and sex for the period 2023 - 2057 and of the total labour force classified by age and sex for the years 2027, 2032 and 2037. The usual resident population estimate based on Census 2022 (5,183,966 persons) provides the base for both the population and labour force projections.
Figure 1.1 shows how the population has evolved over the period 1841 – 2022 while table 1.1 shows the components of population change, expressed in the form of annual averages, for each inter-censal period since 1926.
In order to assist the user in assessing the impact of different levels of migration, fertility and mortality on population change, three population projection variants have been produced. These national population projections provide statistics on potential future population levels. This report is not an attempt to predict the future but rather presents how the population could evolve under different scenarios.
The model used for these projections is similar to that used in previous exercises, namely the demographic component method (see Background Notes) which projects the 2022 usually resident population forward under the chosen assumptions relating to future trends in fertility, mortality, migration and labour force participation. One set of assumptions was chosen for fertility, one for mortality and three for migration up to the year 2057, giving three sets of results altogether. For the labour force projections a single set of assumptions relating to future labour force participation rates to the year 2037 was chosen.
The most up-to-date information available was used in preparing the projections including the results of Census 2022, information on births up to Q2 2022 and results of the Q2 2022 Labour Force Survey (LFS). Population and migration estimates for 2023 were also examined.
The assumptions were agreed by an Expert Group (see membership in Background Notes) which met during the period February 2024 to May 2024. The Central Statistics Office is grateful to the members of the Group for their input and advice during the discussions leading to the adoption of these assumptions.
The following two chapters of this report describe the population and labour force projections results. The assumptions underpinning these results are outlined in the subsequent chapters, and a summary of these assumptions is outlined below.
The assumptions agreed by the Expert Group to project the population forward from 2022 to 2057 and to project the labour force forward from 2022 to 2037 are summarised below:
Total fertility rate to decrease from 1.55 to 1.3 by 2037 and to remain constant thereafter to 2057.
Mortality rates for males and females are both assumed to improve at 2.5% per annum in the short-term to 2047.
The long-term rate of improvement is assumed to be 1.5% per annum (unchanged since the last report). The short-term rate declines linearly over a 25 year period to the long-term rate.
These rates are assumed to apply to all ages up to age 90.
These assumptions will result in gains in life expectancy from:
Three migration scenarios were taken into consideration by the expert group:
M1: Net migration starting at +75,000 in 2022 and decreasing incrementally to +45,000 per annum by 2027 and remaining at this level to 2057.
M2: Net migration starting at +75,000 in 2022 and decreasing incrementally to +30,000 per annum by 2032 and remaining at this level to 2057.
M3: Net migration starting at +75,000 in 2022 and decreasing incrementally to +10,000 per annum by 2032 and remaining at this level to 2057.
Persons aged 15 - 24:
Persons aged 25 – 74+:
While this report contains a number of summary tables, detailed results of the population projections classified by sex and single year of age for each year from 2023 to 2057 are available on the CSO Statistics Database.
The detailed projections are provided for the three different migration assumptions distinguished in the publication i.e. M1, M2 and M3. Data on births, deaths and net migration classified by sex are also available for each year from 2023 to 2057.
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