Circumstances of People Linked to Justice Sanctions 2017-2023

Introduction

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) has developed indicators to provide a comparison of the employment levels of those who have received two types of justice sanctions (former prisoners and former probationers) to the wider employee population. Not all persons linked to sanctions such as probation or prison, like the wider population, are actively working. This chapter provides a comparison of persons who either received a probation order or who were released from prison in 2020, and who are active in the labour market, with employment estimates of the wider population.

In this analysis, the characteristics of persons who received either a probation order or who were released from prison in 2020 have been matched to data of their employment as employees provided to the CSO by the Revenue Commissioners from the years 2019 until 2023. The matching years were selected to provide comparisons with existing employment indices that have also been created from administrative data. This allows the statistical analysis to chart the employment dynamics of those who have received justice sanctions over time. See Background Notes for more information.

The linkage and analysis were undertaken by the CSO for statistical purposes in line with the Statistics Act, 1993 and the CSO Data Protocol.

Employee index calculation

The employment indexes in this publication covering former probationers or former prisoners has been calculated using the CSO’s existing methodology and publication of the Monthly Estimates of Payroll Employees using Administrative Data Sources. Using Administrative Data this publication calculates the estimated indexed number of employees, using Revenue’s PAYE Modernisation as the data source. The series provides estimates of the number of employees by sex and NACE economic sector. The sectors of economic activity included were determined in accordance with the NACE Rev. 2 classification scheme. Persons are counted if they are estimated to have worked for greater than zero pay during the reference month.

Further details of the methodology can be found in the Background Notes of this publication and in the CSO’s current publication using equivalent employment estimates.

Methodological overview

The Monthly Estimates of Payroll Employees using Administrative Data calculates the estimated number of employees, both indexed and absolute values using Revenue’s PAYE Modernisation as the data source. The series provides estimates of the number of employees by Age, Sex and NACE sector. The sectors of economic activity included were determined in accordance with the NACE Rev. 2 classification scheme, which is the European Commission’s classification system for economic activity. Persons are counted if they are estimated to have worked for greater than zero pay during the reference month. This differs to the criteria used to derive International Labour Organisation (ILO) and Principal Economic Status (PES) employment.

Probationer employee index rose by 3% between January 2019 and December 2023

Overall, the probationer employee index increased by 3% from January 2019 to December 2023. In contrast, the employee index for all persons increased by 17% during the same period. However, within this period the index, which measures the levels of employment participation shows that probationer employment followed a similar trend to the overall index from January 2019 until May 2022 with both populations affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in an equivalent way. From May 2022 until November 2023 the probationer index displayed a different trend and declined by 5% while the whole employee index rose by 4% over the same period. See Figure 3.1, Table 3.1, and PxStat Table CPLJS22.

Prisoner employee index rose by 6% between January 2019 and December 2023

Overall, the prisoner employee index increased by 6% from January 2019 to December 2023 while the employee index for all persons increased by 16% during the same period. COVID-19 had a greater impact on the employment of former prisoners when compared with all employees. In April 2020, the index representing the number of employed former prisoners released in 2020 fell by 21% annually compared with 11% for all employees. See Figure 3.2, Table 3.2, and PxStat Table CPLJS22.

Female former probationers links to earnings increased more than males after 2023

Both the female and male probation employee indices displayed similar increases and declines in employment up until September 2022. However, as COVID-19 restrictions were progressively lifted the female indices (25% growth from 1st January 2021 until November 2023) showed a greater extent of employment engagement than the male equivalent measure over the same period (15%). See Figure 3.3, Table 3.3, and PxStat Table CPLJS23.

Female former prisoners working in 2020 were more impacted by COVID-19 than males

The highest level of employment participation for females linked to custodial release in 2020 took place in 2022. In July 2022, the employment participation index rose to 129, 59% higher than its lowest point in May 2020 (during the COVID-19 pandemic). Employment participation amongst former male prisoners also increased over this period but by slightly less (38%). See Figure 3.4, Table 3.4, and PxStat Table CPLJS23.

Former prisoners and probationers tend to be employed more in the Wholesale & Retail, Industry, and Construction sectors

The highest proportion of former prisoners (17%) and probationers (17%) were employed in the Wholesale & Retail sector of the economy in 2023, three years after their prison release or probation supervision. The Information & Communication (ICT) sector was the least likely sector of the economy to employ former prisoners (2%) or probationers (2%). The greatest difference in employment at sectorial level between persons linked to justice sanctions and all employees was in Human Health & Social Work where 14% of the population of all employees received employment while just 9% of persons with a history of prison or probation were employed. See Figure 3.5, Tables 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, and PxStat Tables CPLJS19, CPLJS20, & CPLJS21.