Commentary

Introduction

A Census of Population was taken on the night of Sunday, 28 April 2002 (1), in accordance with the Statistics (Census of Population) Order 2001 (S.I. No. 491 of 2001) (2). This Report contains provisional results which are based on summaries returned by each of the 4,000 census enumerators. As these results are subject to revision they should not be regarded as having statutory force.

Coverage of the Census

The census figures relate to the de facto population i.e. the population recorded for each area represents the total of all persons present within its boundaries on the night of Sunday, 28 April 2002, together with all persons who arrived in that area on the morning of Monday, 29 April 2002, not having been enumerated elsewhere. Persons on board ships in port are included with the population of adjacent areas. The figures, therefore, include visitors present on census night as well as those in residence, while usual residents temporarily absent from the area are excluded.

The date of the census was chosen to coincide with a period when passenger movements were at a minimum and, consequently, the figures closely approximate to those for the normally resident population. Members of the Defence Forces who on census night were serving abroad with the United Nations were excluded from the enumeration.

Conduct of the Census

A temporary field force consisting of 5 Census Liaison Officers, 35 Regional Supervisors, 350 Field Supervisors and some 4,000 part-time enumerators carried out the census enumeration. Blank census questionnaires were distributed to every household and communal establishment in the State during the four weeks immediately preceding census night. Collection of completed questionnaires commenced on Monday, 29 April. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) wishes to record its appreciation of the public-spirited co-operation received from households and the work of the specially appointed field force.

Each enumerator was required to prepare a summary for his/her enumeration area. These summaries were returned to the CSO in advance of the main body of the census field records and it is from these summaries that this Preliminary Report has been prepared. Dissemination of the definitive population figures, analysing the population by such factors as age, marital status, occupation, etc., will commence in mid-2003.

Areas distinguished in report

The smallest geographical units distinguished in the present report are Electoral Divisions (previously called District Electoral Divisions or Wards). In order to facilitate analysis of the results, Table 2 contains groupings of Electoral Divisions (EDs) into urban and rural areas. These areas which correspond to the former municipal boroughs, urban districts and rural districts have no statutory underpinning.

The changes in the designation and composition of administrative areas introduced by the Local Government Act, 2001 will be fully reflected in the reports containing the definitive census results.

Population exceeds 3.9 million

The preliminary total for the population enumerated on census night 28 April 2002 was 3,917,336 persons, compared with 3,626,087 persons in April 1996, representing an increase of 291,249 persons or 8 per cent in six years. The rate of population growth was the highest experienced since the 1970s. The average annual rate of population increase between 1996 and 2002 was 1.3 per cent compared with 0.6 per cent for the 1991-1996 period and 1.5 per cent between 1971 and 1979.

Table A gives the population classified by Province for each census undertaken since 1926. It shows that the population of all four provinces increased between 1996 and 2002. The increase was most marked in Leinster (+180,747 or 9.4 per cent) and least pronounced for Ulster (part of) (+12,320 or 5.3 per cent). The 2002 census was the first in which the population of Leinster exceeded two million persons. Its share of the overall population of the State has increased in every census since 1926 while the shares of each of the other three provinces have declined during the same period.

Table A: Population in each Province, 1926-2002

Dublin increase less than national average

Table B gives population figures for each of the Counties and Cities for 1996 and 2002, together with the actual and percentage changes for the six-year period 1996-2002. From this table it can be seen that the population of all counties, apart from Cork City, increased between 1996 and 2002.

Population growth in the Dublin region varied from +0.7 per cent in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown to +17 per cent in Fingal over the six year period. The population of Dublin City (formerly Dublin County Borough) grew by 2.7 per cent. Overall, the increase in the population of the Dublin region (+6.1 per cent) was lower than that for the State as a whole (+8 per cent).

In the rest of Leinster, the populations of Kildare (+29,003) and Meath (+24,204) both increased by over a fifth between 1996 and 2002. Increases in the populations of Westmeath (+13.8 per cent), Wexford (+11.7 per cent), Laoighis (+10.9 per cent), Louth (+10.5 per cent) and Carlow (+10.2 per cent) reflect to some extent a widening of the Dublin commuter belt beyond Meath, Kildare and Wicklow.

The population of Cork City fell by 3 per cent between 1996 and 2002, but that of the county increased by 10.7 per cent, giving an overall increase of 6.6 per cent for the combined area. Of the remaining Munster counties, Clare (+9,327) and Limerick (+10,487) had the most pronounced increases.

In Connacht, the population of Galway City increased by 14.9 per cent in the six-year period to 2002, representing an annual average increase of 2.3 per cent - similar to the 2.4 per cent annual increase observed during 1991 to 1996. The 2002 census is the first one to record an increase in the population of Leitrim - up 3 per cent compared with 1996.

The population of Cavan (+6.6 per cent) showed the greatest percentage increase in Ulster (part of) while that of Donegal (+7,389) showed the greatest absolute increase.

Lucan fastest growing area

Table 2 of the detailed tables in this report provides figures for the population in 2002 of each Electoral Division (ED) ordered by county, together with the changes which have occurred since 1996. The percentage changes are illustrated graphically in Figure 1 while Figure 2 focuses on the Dublin region.

The largest increase in the State at ED level occurred in Lucan-Esker in South Dublin where the population almost trebled in six years to reach a figure of 21,785 in 2002. Elsewhere in Dublin the population of Blanchardstown-Blakestown increased by 9,371 (+61.9 per cent) between 1996 and 2002, while the following EDs increased by more than 2,000 persons in the same period: Castleknock-Knockmaroon, Swords-Lissenhall, Tallaght-Jobstown, Glencullen and Firhouse village.

In the remainder of Leinster there were significant increases in the following EDs:

Most of these areas are within the Dublin commuter belt.

In Cork the ED of Lehanagh increased by 2,381 persons since 1996 while Carrigaline grew by 2,320. The Limerick EDs of Ballycummin and Ballysimon increased by 3,885 and 2,015, respectively. Elsewhere in Munster the ED of Ennis Rural experienced an increase of 3,325 persons since the last census.

The main growth areas at Electoral Division level in Connacht were Barna (+3,810) in Galway and Castlebar Rural (+2,465) in Mayo.

Table B: Population of each Province, County and City and actual and percentage change, 1996-2002

Ratio of males to females remains unchanged

The sex ratio (number of males per thousand females) in the State and in each Province is shown in Table C for each census since 1926.

At State level, the ratio remained unchanged at 986 between 1996 and 2002, reflecting an increase in Leinster and a continued decline in the other provinces. Females outnumbered males in Munster in 2002 for the first time in the history of the State.

Table C: Males per 1,000 females in each Province, 1926-2002

Net immigration of 150,000 since 1996

The census total is a count of the number of persons actually in the State on census night. The change in population reflects the effect of vital events (births and deaths) and of all movement of persons into and out of the State between successive censuses. Since the number of births and deaths is known from the regular vital statistics, a residual measure of net movement of persons can be obtained. In the absence of direct measures of inward and outward migratory flows, this residual is used as an estimate of "net migration", i.e. the difference between the inward and outward flows. This residual figure however also reflects, implicitly, the net effect of non-migratory movements (i.e. change between successive censuses in the level of visitors in the State, or in the level of Irish residents temporarily abroad on census night) and of any other factors such as marginal variations in census coverage achieved.

In the six-year period between the 1996 and 2002 Censuses, births (324,103) exceeded deaths (185,921) by 138,182. The actual increase in population in the same period was 291,249. The difference of 153,067 is taken as an estimate of the extent to which inward migration in 1996-2002 was greater than outward migration, i.e. an estimate of net migration. Table D sets out the relevant figures for the six-year period 1996-2002, with separate estimates for males and females. Net inward migration accounted for 51.6 per cent of the increase in the male population and 53.5 per cent of the increase in the female population between 1996 and 2002.

Table D: Births, Deaths and estimated net migration

* The data for births and deaths relate to events registered in the six year period ended 31 March 2002. The figures for the first quarter of 2002 are provisional.

Net immigration now higher than natural increase

Table E gives the changes in the population, natural increase and estimated net migration for each intercensal period since 1926 expressed in the form of annual averages and rates per 1,000 of average population. The annual average figures are shown graphically in Figure 3.

The average annual natural increase rose fairly consistently up to 1981 to reach a peak of just over 40,000 in the 1979-1981 period. The fall in the number of births was mainly responsible for the sharp decline which took place between 1981 and 1996. However, the pick-up in births observed since the mid 1990s has resulted in an upward shift in the natural increase in the most recent intercensal period.

Net migration has been negative in all intercensal periods apart from 1971-1979, 1991-1996 and 1996-2002. On an annual average basis, net inward migration of 25,500 for the most recent period was almost twice the average recorded during the 1970s. While the natural increase in the population has been positive in each intercensal period since 1926, the most recent period is the first in which net immigration has had a greater impact on population growth (i.e. 6.8 per thousand compared with 6.1 per thousand)

Table E: Components of population changes, average annual and rates per 1,000 of average population, 1926-2002

Figure 3: Components of population changes (average annual), 1926-2002

All counties experience inward migration

Estimated net migration for an intercensal period can also be derived for Counties and Cities in a similar fashion by comparing the figures for the change in population with the natural increase to obtain net migration and reflect all movements into and out of each county not only to or from abroad, but also to or from another part of the State. The calculations for the period 1996-2002 are set out in Table 4 of the detailed tabulations.

Derived annual rates of net migration per thousand of the average population for each county are shown in Table F following, along with corresponding rates of each intercensal period since 1951. All counties benefited from the combined effect of inward and internal migration flows during 1996 to 2002. The counties which gained most were Meath (+24.4 per thousand), Kildare (+ 20 per thousand), Westmeath (+14.9 per thousand), Wexford (+12.1 per thousand) and Laoighis (+11.6 per thousand)

Table F: Average annual rate of estimated net migration (inward less outward) per 1,000 of average population in each intercensal period, 1951-2002

Footnotes:

(1)The census originally planned for 29 April 2001 was postponed because of the Foot and Mouth disease situation pertaining at the time.

(2)The Statistics (Census of Population) Order, 2001 was made by the Minister of State at the Department of the Taoiseach in pursuance of powers conferred on him by section 25 (1) of the Statistics Act, 1993 (No. 21 of 1993) and the Statistics (Delegation of Ministerial Functions) Order, 1997 (S.I. No. 327 of 1997).