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For more information on this release:
E-mail: sts_rap@cso.ie Stephanie Kelleher (+353)21 453 5123 Alan Finlay (+353)21 453 5211 Sinéad Leyden (+353)21 453 5523
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 Visit StatCentral.ie, the portal to Ireland's official statistics On-line ISSN 2009-5074
CSO statistical release, 04 September 2014, 11am

Monthly Services Index

July 2014 (Provisional) June 2014 (Final)

 Monthly Services Index
 (Base Year 2010 = 100)
     Value Index        Monthly % changeAnnual % change
July 2013107.5-1.22.7
June 2014111.71.42.7
July 2014113.21.45.3

Monthly Services increased by 1.4% in July 2014

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The seasonally adjusted monthly services value index increased by 1.4% in July 2014 when compared with June 2014 while, in the year to July 2014, there was an increase of 5.3%.

On a monthly basis, Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (+4.1%), Information and Communication (+3.5%), Administrative and Support Service Activities (+1.7%) and Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+0.6%) increased when compared with June 2014. Other Service Activities (-0.9%) and Wholesale and Retail Trade (-0.3%) decreased in the month to July 2014, while there was no change in Transportation and Storage. 

On an annual basis, Information and Communication (+16.4%), Other Service Activities (+8.7%), Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (+5.9%), Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+2.1%)  Transportation and Storage (+0.3%) and Wholesale and Retail Trade (+0.1%) increased when compared with July 2013. Administrative and Support Service Activities (-0.1%) showed a decrease in the same period. 

Business SectorsMonth on MonthYear on Year
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities0.390410.57823
Administration and Support Service Activities0.15161-0.01265
Accommodation and Food Service Activities0.038680.12854
Information and Communication0.959914.19573
Other Service Activities-0.04340.3918
Transportation and Storage0.002670.02996
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles-0.099530.02965
Table 1 Seasonally adjusted indices for the non-financial traded services sector1
   Base Year: 2010=100
Period        Total Non-Financial Traded Services
  NACE 45-63, 68-96
  IndexMonthly % change Annual % change
     
2009 102.4  
2010 99.9 -2.4
2011 103.3 3.4
2012 106.0 2.6
2013 107.3 1.2
     
20132nd quarter108.10.62.7
 3rd quarter107.4-0.62.0
 4th quarter106.1-1.2-1.7
     
20141st quarter109.63.32.0
 2nd quarter111.41.63.1
     
2013January106.8-0.33.0
 February106.2-0.5-0.5
 March109.32.93.5
 April107.3-1.83.0
 May108.30.91.1
 June108.80.54.0
 July107.5-1.22.7
 August106.8-0.7-0.2
 September108.01.13.7
 October105.1-2.7-3.0
 November105.00.0-3.1
 December108.33.11.1
     
2014January111.53.04.4
 February108.0-3.11.6
 March109.51.50.2
 April112.52.74.8
 May110.1-2.11.7
 June111.71.42.7
 July2113.21.45.3
     
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to July 2014 
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents 
Table 2(a) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
        Base Year: 2010=100
   Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles2 Wholesale Trade4
   NACE 45 - 47 NACE 46
Period  IndexMonthly % change Annual % change  IndexMonthly % change Annual % change
          
2009  95.5   90.3  
2010  100.0 4.6 99.9 10.6
2011  107.2 7.3 114.2 14.3
2012  109.6 2.3 118.9 4.1
2013  105.4 -3.8 112.7 -5.2
          
20132nd quarter 106.31.6-3.4 113.31.4-4.8
 3rd quarter 108.01.6-0.2 112.5-0.8-4.4
 4th quarter 102.8-4.8-6.3 113.40.8-2.9
          
20141st quarter 109.86.95.0 114.71.22.6
 2nd quarter 109.5-0.33.0 119.84.55.8
          
2013January 106.1-1.8-1.3 117.02.6-1.9
 February 105.2-0.8-5.6 111.8-4.4-10.0
 March 102.5-2.6-9.0 106.6-4.6-13.7
 April 105.83.2-3.7 113.46.3-4.4
 May 107.31.4-3.4 114.30.8-4.8
 June 105.7-1.5-3.1 112.3-1.8-5.1
 July 109.13.20.2 116.03.3-2.7
 August 107.7-1.3-1.1 110.8-4.4-6.7
 September 107.2-0.50.4 110.6-0.3-3.8
 October 102.9-4.0-7.2 112.11.4-4.6
 November 100.8-2.0-8.6 109.3-2.5-7.8
 December 104.63.8-3.2 118.78.64.1
          
2014January 113.18.16.5 117.9-0.60.8
 February 107.2-5.21.9 112.3-4.80.4
 March 109.21.96.6 113.91.56.8
 April 109.70.43.7 119.14.55.0
 May 109.2-0.41.8 119.40.24.4
 June 109.50.33.6 121.11.57.9
 July3 109.2-0.30.1 112.5-7.1-3.0
          
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to July 2014
2 Retail sales and Motor figures are published in detail in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
4 Wholesale trade is a sub-component of Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles
Table 2(b) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1   
           Base Year: 2010=100
   Accommodation and Food Service Activities Accommodation Food and Beverage Service Activities2
   NACE 55-56 NACE 55 NACE 561, 562
Period  IndexMonthly % change Annual % change  IndexMonthly % change Annual % change  IndexMonthly % change Annual % change
              
2009  111.8   113.0   108.4  
2010  100.1 -10.5 100.0 -11.5 100.0 -7.8
2011  101.3 1.2 105.0 5.1 102.8 2.8
2012  103.5 2.2 107.1 2.0 109.9 6.9
2013  103.6 0.1 106.3 -0.8 112.0 2.0
              
20132nd quarter 103.50.00.0 104.1-3.3-3.7 111.40.61.9
 3rd quarter 101.9-1.5-3.6 103.6-0.5-6.9 110.6-0.8-1.0
 4th quarter 105.43.41.3 109.96.00.7 115.44.45.1
              
20141st quarter 105.70.22.1 112.82.74.8 115.50.14.2
 2nd quarter 107.31.63.7 114.61.610.1 117.11.45.1
              
2013January 103.70.02.5 105.4-4.58.3 112.84.32.8
 February 100.9-2.71.2 104.0-1.36.5 107.5-4.7-1.6
 March 105.84.84.4 113.59.28.1 112.04.24.5
 April 101.8-3.70.8 102.2-10.0-1.3 110.3-1.65.4
 May 102.80.90.2 104.32.1-4.3 110.70.41.2
 June 105.93.1-0.9 105.81.5-5.3 113.22.2-0.6
 July 103.0-2.7-0.2 102.4-3.3-6.1 111.0-2.01.0
 August 103.40.4-2.7 105.12.6-6.5 115.13.73.3
 September 99.4-3.9-7.9 103.5-1.5-8.0 105.7-8.2-7.1
 October 102.73.3-1.5 106.12.5-2.5 111.85.90.8
 November 107.74.93.2 111.45.03.1 117.44.96.5
 December 105.9-1.72.1 112.10.61.6 116.9-0.48.1
              
2014January 104.7-1.11.0 112.10.06.4 113.9-2.60.9
 February 105.70.94.7 113.00.88.7 115.31.27.2
 March 106.50.80.7 113.30.2-0.2 117.31.74.7
 April 108.31.66.3 114.10.711.6 118.41.07.4
 May 109.10.86.2 118.33.713.4 119.10.67.6
 June 104.5-4.2-1.3 111.5-5.85.3 113.6-4.70.3
 July3 105.20.62.1 110.9-0.68.3 117.53.45.8
              
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to July 2014
2 NACE 563 relates to Bars, and is published separately in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(c) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
       Base Year: 2010=100
   Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities Administrative and Support Service Activities2
   NACE 64-75 NACE 77-82
Period  IndexMonthly % change Annual % change  IndexMonthly % change Annual % change
          
2009  119.1   97.2  
2010  100.1 -15.9 99.9 2.7
2011  101.2 1.0 92.7 -7.2
2012  90.4 -10.7 99.4 7.2
2013  85.2 -5.7 121.5 22.3
          
20132nd quarter 87.8-2.9-4.8 123.68.725.8
 3rd quarter 82.5-6.1-5.1 124.30.621.6
 4th quarter 80.0-3.0-13.0 124.60.220.6
          
20141st quarter 84.55.6-6.6 119.1-4.44.8
 2nd quarter 81.8-3.1-6.9 120.41.1-2.6
          
2013January 88.9-1.9-0.7 109.210.026.5
 February 92.13.63.0 112.63.116.5
 March 90.3-1.9-1.9 119.36.021.9
 April 90.3-0.1-0.7 121.51.823.5
 May 86.1-4.6-9.1 122.30.719.9
 June 87.21.3-4.4 127.13.934.4
 July 80.4-7.8-9.2 124.3-2.217.9
 August 82.83.0-4.2 125.71.123.9
 September 84.31.8-1.8 123.0-2.223.1
 October 80.4-4.6-12.6 122.1-0.714.7
 November 78.9-1.8-15.2 125.42.720.4
 December 80.62.2-11.0 126.20.627.0
          
2014January 88.69.9-0.4 121.0-4.110.8
 February 80.9-8.7-12.1 118.7-1.95.5
 March 83.93.7-7.1 117.6-1.0-1.4
 April 82.4-1.8-8.8 118.60.9-2.3
 May 81.3-1.3-5.6 120.61.7-1.4
 June 81.80.6-6.2 122.01.2-4.0
 July3 85.14.15.9 124.21.7-0.1
          
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to July 2014
2 NACE 7735 is excluded
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(d) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1 
           Base Year: 2010=100
   Transportation and Storage Information and Communication Other Service Activities
   NACE 49-53 NACE 58-63 NACE 68, 92-93, 95-96
Period  IndexMonthly % change Annual % change  IndexMonthly % change Annual % change  IndexMonthly % change Annual % change
              
2009  112.2   93.5   121.1  
2010  100.3 -10.6 99.6 6.5 99.9 -17.6
2011  103.9 3.6 103.4 3.8 100.6 0.7
2012  109.4 5.3 112.8 9.1 96.9 -3.7
2013  111.0 1.4 119.8 6.2 93.2 -3.8
              
 2nd quarter 112.71.03.5 118.9-1.98.6 94.71.50.5
 3rd quarter 113.00.31.2 116.9-1.74.2 93.5-1.20.5
 4th quarter 106.7-5.6-5.5 122.34.64.3 91.5-2.2-5.6
              
20141st quarter 108.92.0-2.4 125.72.83.7 91.0-0.5-2.4
 2nd quarter 115.76.32.7 129.93.39.2 97.47.02.9
              
2013January 110.0-4.87.3 118.30.64.0 97.83.4-2.8
 February 111.01.05.6 115.1-2.7-0.2 95.3-2.6-12.2
 March 113.72.47.8 130.213.120.6 86.6-9.2-14.4
 April 112.0-1.51.7 116.4-10.69.8 94.28.81.5
 May 114.72.47.7 118.01.43.2 98.34.43.3
 June 111.5-2.81.3 122.33.613.2 91.4-7.0-3.4
 July 115.13.34.3 116.1-5.17.1 91.40.0-0.6
 August 112.9-1.91.1 113.3-2.4-4.6 95.34.21.8
 September 111.1-1.6-1.5 121.57.310.9 94.0-1.40.4
 October 108.1-2.7-2.8 118.7-2.31.8 90.0-4.2-8.3
 November 107.9-0.3-3.6 119.20.41.3 93.23.6-4.8
 December 104.1-3.5-9.9 129.08.29.7 91.1-2.3-3.6
              
2014January 114.610.14.2 123.6-4.14.5 90.9-0.3-7.1
 February 107.5-6.2-3.2 125.31.48.9 89.2-1.8-6.4
 March 104.4-2.9-8.2 128.22.3-1.5 93.04.27.4
 April 118.213.25.6 133.13.814.3 96.74.12.7
 May 113.5-4.0-1.0 125.9-5.46.6 95.1-1.7-3.3
 June 115.41.73.5 130.63.86.8 100.25.39.6
 July2 115.40.00.3 135.23.516.4 99.3-0.98.7
              
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to July 2014
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents

Background Notes

Introduction  

The monthly services value index (MSI) monitors trends in output at current prices of enterprises in the non-financial traded services sector. This is the first step in the development of a Services Production Index that measures gross value added changes at constant prices, i.e. a volume index.

 

Sample covered

The sample size is approximately 2,100 enterprises. The sample comprises a census of all enterprises with an annual turnover value of more than €20m or enterprises with more than 100 persons engaged. The remainder of the target population is stratified using 2-digit Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, i.e. NACE Rev. 2 classifications. Each of these 2-digit NACE sectors are further subdivided into strata based on turnover. A simple random sample is then drawn from each stratum. Retail and Motor Trade figures are taken from the separate Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,400 enterprises.

 

The response rates for the provisional results are typically 49% in terms of the enterprises surveyed which represents 70% of the value of total turnover. The corresponding figures for the final results are 59% and 88% respectively. These response rates are based on averages for the 6 month period ending March 2012.

 

Methodology

The business activity classifications used in this statistical release are based on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community i.e. NACE Rev. 2. For further information on the NACE Rev. 2 classification of services activity, visit the CSO website:

http://www.cso.ie/px/u/NACECoder/NACEItems/searchnace.asp

 

The index system is structured on the non-financial traded services sector covered in the 2010 Annual Services Inquiry (ASI). This non-financial traded services sector is further broken down as follows: 

  • Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (NACE 45-47)
  • Wholesale Trade (NACE 46)
  • Motors (NACE 45) and Retail Trade (NACE 47) are published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Transport and Storage (NACE 49-53)
  • Accommodation and Food Activities (NACE 55, 56)
  • Accommodation (NACE 55)
  • Food Services Activities (NACE 561, 562)
  • Bars (NACE 563) is currently published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Information and Communication (NACE 58-63)
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (NACE 69-75)
  • Administrative and Support Service Activities (NACE 77-83)
  • NACE 7735 – Aircraft leasing is excluded
  • Other Business Services
  • NACE 68 Real estate activities
  • NACE 92 Gambling and betting activities
  • NACE 93 Sports activities and amusements and recreation activities
  • NACE 95 Repair of computers and personal and household goods
  • NACE 96 Other personal service activities

 

To compile the MSI, each of the above published NACE sectors is separated into three distinct cells based on the constituent enterprises’ reported gross value added (GVA) for 2010. Using data taken from the 2010 ASI, GVA baseweights are then calculated for each of these cells and the baseweights are updated each month using a matched sample approach. 

 

An enterprise’s monthly GVA value is calculated as follows; respondents report their monthly turnover figures which are transformed into estimated GVA figures by applying a firm specific factor based on an individual respondent’s 2010 ASI return.  The factor is calculated for each firm by simply dividing their estimated GVA by reported turnover.  If an enterprise was not on the ASI sample then the relevant cell mean GVA/turnover ratio, calculated from the 2010 ASI, is applied. The reason for this change in methodology is to reduce the disproportionate impact that some enterprises (which report large turnover figures but have a relatively small GVA) can have on the overall series.

 

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustment for each of the sectors is conducted using a direct seasonal adjustment approach. However, the overall MSI is estimated using the indirect approach, i.e. the MSI is derived by adding the weighted seasonally adjusted sub-components. The main reason for adopting the indirect approach for the MSI is to attribute the monthly and annual changes in the MSI to each of its sub-components. Seasonal adjustment models are developed for each series based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2009 to the current period. These models are reviewed on an annual basis; however seasonal factors are updated each month.

 

The seasonal adjustment of the MSI is conducted using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software produced, distributed and maintained by the U.S. Census Bureau.  The ARIMA option in X-13ARIMA-SEATS is used to forecast and backcast the series in order to have sufficient data to run the seasonal adjustment, as currently we have less than five years of data. Due to the lack of a sufficiently long series the series are not adjusted for Easter and Trading effects.  The seasonal estimates do, however, take into account other factors that may impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment, i.e. outliers, temporary changes and level shifts.

 

For additional information on the use of X-13ARIMA-SEATS see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/.

 

Rebase 2010 – Changes

The main reasons for differences in the new rebased and updated MSI series in comparison with the MSI (base year 2009 =100) are as follows:

  • New cell baseweights were taken from the ASI 2010.
  • A new cell structure/breakdown has been adopted for each sector.  Each enterprise is placed in a particular cell based on the following criteria:
  • Cell 3 If annual GVA is greater than €80,000,000
  • Cell 2 If annual GVA is between €2,500,000  and €80,000,000
  • Cell 1 If annual GVA  is less than €2,500,000
  • The new baseweights are now updated each month using changes to respondents’ monthly estimated GVA as opposed to changes in respondents’ reported turnover.
  • To keep with the classifications adopted by ASI 2010 a number of NACE sectors have been excluded from the updated MSI, i.e.
  • NACE 66 – Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities
  • NACE 90 – Creative, arts and entertainment activities
  • NACE 91 – Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities
  • NACE 77 - Rental and leasing activities are no longer in Other Business Activities. NACE 77 is now included Administrative and Support Service Activities.
  • The inclusion of new and revised micro data.
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