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For more information on this release:
E-mail: sts_rap@cso.ie Alan Finlay (+353)21 453 5211 Sinéad Leyden (+353)21 453 5523 Sandra Tobin (+353)21 453 5912
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 Visit StatCentral.ie, the portal to Ireland's official statistics On-line ISSN 2009-5074
CSO statistical release, 04 October 2017, 11am

Monthly Services Index

August 2017 (Provisional) July 2017 (Final)

 Monthly Services Index
 (Base Year 2010 = 100)
     Value Index        Monthly % changeAnnual % change
August 2016126.03.56.6
July 2017131.95.38.4
August 2017123.7-6.3-1.9

Monthly Services decreased by 6.3% in August 2017

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The seasonally adjusted monthly services value index decreased by 6.3% in August 2017 when compared with July 2017 while in the year to August 2017, there was a decrease of 1.9%.

On a monthly basis, the sectors showing increases in August 2017 were Administrative and Support Service Activities (+2.9%), Other Services Activities (+1.5%) and Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (+0.1%). Information and Communication (-18.0%), Wholesale and Retail Trade (-3.1%), Transportation and Storage (-2.5%) and Accommodation and Food Service Activities (-0.2%) recorded decreases in the month to end August 2017.

On an annual basis, the sectors showing increases since August 2016 were Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (+11.6%), Wholesale and Retail Trade (+8.9%), Other Service Activities (+8.3%), Accommodation and Food Service Activities (+4.7%) and Administrative and Support Service Activities (+1.7%). Information and Communication (-18.6%) and Transportation and Storage (-10.3%)  recorded decreases in the year to August 2017.

                                                                          

                                                                                                                             

Business SectorsMonth on MonthYear on Year
Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities0.014251.12484
Administration and Support Service Activities0.180050.11338
Accommodation and Food Service Activities-0.013060.29725
Information and Communication-5.21721-5.68864
Other Service Activities0.061710.32673
Transportation and Storage-0.21157-0.99847
Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles-1.094372.94791
Table 1 Seasonally adjusted indices for the non-financial traded services sector1
Base Year: 2010=100
Period        Total Non-Financial Traded Services
  NACE 45-63, 68-96
  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
2012 106.0  
2013 107.3 1.2
2014 111.7 4.1
2015 118.1 5.7
2016 124.5 5.5
     
20161st quarter123.74.54.7
 2nd quarter124.00.27.3
 3rd quarter124.50.43.6
 4th quarter125.91.26.3
     
20171st quarter129.02.44.3
 2nd quarter126.3-2.11.9
     
2016February124.00.58.0
 March123.6-0.35.3
 April123.70.06.7
 May123.80.18.5
 June124.40.56.7
 July121.8-2.1-0.7
 August126.03.56.6
 September125.6-0.45.0
 October126.00.35.1
 November127.51.26.5
 December124.3-2.57.4
     
2017January130.75.15.9
 February128.6-1.63.7
 March127.6-0.83.2
 April125.8-1.51.7
 May127.81.63.2
 June125.3-2.00.7
 July131.95.38.4
 August2123.7-6.3-1.9
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to August 2017
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(a) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
       Base Year: 2010=100
  Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles2 Wholesale Trade4
  NACE 45 - 47 NACE 46
Period Index % change on previous period Annual % change  Index % change on previous period Annual % change
2012 109.8   118.9  
2013 105.5 -3.8 112.7 -5.2
2014 108.9 3.2 117.6 4.4
2015 120.6 10.7 133.8 13.8
2016 127.2 5.5 140.0 4.6
         
20161st quarter124.34.04.4 131.30.00.1
 2nd quarter126.21.52.8 137.95.0-1.0
 3rd quarter129.12.36.6 141.72.76.1
 4th quarter129.40.28.3 148.95.113.4
         
20171st quarter140.48.513.0 136.6-8.34.0
 2nd quarter131.3-6.54.0 131.5-3.7-4.6
         
2016February124.2-1.64.3 130.3-1.4-2.2
 March122.4-1.50.8 131.40.8-0.6
 April127.23.94.1 136.63.90.7
 May123.6-2.80.0 133.4-2.4-6.0
 June127.73.34.5 143.87.82.5
 July133.74.78.5 146.82.16.9
 August126.2-5.66.7 137.5-6.47.0
 September127.30.84.7 140.82.44.4
 October129.41.77.4 144.22.48.5
 November133.02.712.1 155.47.718.4
 December125.8-5.45.6 147.2-5.313.4
         
2017January146.816.616.3 137.7-6.44.1
 February137.0-6.610.3 130.4-5.30.0
 March137.50.412.4 141.88.87.9
 April132.1-3.93.9 133.8-5.6-2.1
 May134.11.58.5 132.8-0.7-0.4
 June127.5-4.9-0.1 128.1-3.6-11.0
 July141.811.26.0 123.6-3.5-15.8
 August3137.4-3.18.9 136.410.3-0.8
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to August 2017
2 Retail Sales and Motor figures are published in detail in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
4 Wholesale Trade is a sub-component of Wholesale and Retail Trade; repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles
Table 2(b) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
          Base Year: 2010=100
  Accommodation and Food Service Activities Accommodation Food and Beverage Service Activities2
  NACE 55-56 NACE 55 NACE 561, 562
Period Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
2012 109.9   107.2   109.9  
2013 112.0 1.9 106.3 -0.8 112.0 1.9
2014 124.7 11.3 114.6 7.8 124.7 11.3
2015 134.4 7.8 130.5 13.9 134.4 7.8
2016 141.7 5.4 138.5 6.2 141.7 5.4
             
20161st quarter133.94.715.4 140.57.416.7 147.52.710.1
 2nd quarter132.0-1.411.8 134.3-4.40.2 147.1-0.317.9
 3rd quarter129.6-1.94.1 137.92.60.9 134.6-8.5-0.6
 4th quarter133.02.64.0 141.42.58.1 137.52.2-4.2
             
20171st quarter133.60.4-0.2 141.50.10.7 145.35.7-1.5
 2nd quarter133.3-0.20.9 140.9-0.44.9 150.73.72.4
             
2016February134.70.416.8 139.1-1.413.8 152.84.215.7
 March132.7-1.613.2 141.41.615.3 143.2-6.36.3
 April132.1-0.411.7 136.2-3.63.9 148.73.815.6
 May131.3-0.69.0 131.0-3.9-4.6 145.5-2.216.2
 June132.71.114.8 135.83.61.5 147.21.222.1
 July132.1-0.55.5 144.66.52.6 136.8-7.11.0
 August123.6-6.4-1.3 129.7-10.3-4.1 128.4-6.1-6.4
 September133.07.68.1 139.37.44.1 138.57.93.8
 October133.70.65.0 140.20.63.5 137.6-0.7-4.0
 November133.70.05.4 142.51.68.8 139.71.61.4
 December131.5-1.61.7 141.4-0.712.3 135.1-3.3-9.7
             
2017January133.21.3-0.8 145.63.03.2 145.17.4-1.0
 February133.0-0.2-1.3 138.6-4.8-0.4 142.3-2.0-6.8
 March134.41.01.3 140.41.3-0.7 148.64.43.8
 April135.91.12.9 147.24.88.0 146.7-1.3-1.3
 May131.9-3.00.5 136.1-7.53.9 150.42.53.4
 June132.00.1-0.5 139.52.52.8 155.03.15.3
 July129.7-1.7-1.8 137.1-1.7-5.2 142.4-8.14.1
 August3129.5-0.24.7 137.90.66.4 140.2-1.69.2
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to August 2017
2 NACE 563 relates to Bars, and is published separately in the Retail Sales Index
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(c) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
      Base Year: 2010=100
  Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities Administrative and Support Service Activities2
  NACE 69-75 NACE 77-83
Period Index % change on previous period Annual % change  Index % change on previous period Annual % change
2012 90.4   99.3  
2013 85.2 -5.7 121.5 22.3
2014 84.7 -0.5 121.6 0.1
2015 92.0 8.6 123.2 1.3
2016 93.8 2.0 108.1 -12.3
         
20161st quarter92.2-2.30.6 114.8-6.4-5.4
 2nd quarter96.14.210.6 106.5-7.2-15.6
 3rd quarter91.8-4.5-3.5 106.2-0.3-13.4
 4th quarter95.23.70.9 104.7-1.4-14.6
         
20171st quarter100.25.28.7 106.71.9-7.1
 2nd quarter103.83.68.0 102.5-3.9-3.8
         
2016February93.7-0.86.3 113.6-3.1-7.5
 March88.5-5.5-2.2 113.70.1-6.2
 April93.45.511.8 110.0-3.2-5.1
 May97.14.014.6 107.0-2.7-19.9
 June97.80.75.7 102.6-4.1-20.5
 July83.4-14.8-13.0 103.10.4-21.4
 August93.311.8-3.5 104.91.8-13.4
 September98.85.96.4 110.75.5-4.2
 October94.9-4.06.4 105.1-5.1-12.1
 November96.41.64.1 107.62.4-15.9
 December94.4-2.0-6.8 101.4-5.7-15.8
         
2017January96.11.71.8 107.05.5-8.7
 February102.87.09.7 106.7-0.3-6.1
 March101.8-1.014.9 106.3-0.3-6.5
 April100.6-1.17.7 101.2-4.8-8.0
 May112.011.215.3 103.11.8-3.7
 June98.9-11.71.0 103.10.10.5
 July104.05.224.7 103.70.60.7
 August3104.10.111.6 106.72.91.7
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to August 2017
2 NACE 7735 is excluded
3 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents
Table 2(d) Seasonally adjusted indices by sector1
          Base Year: 2010=100
  Transportation and Storage Information and Communication Other Service Activities
  NACE 49-53 NACE 58-63 NACE 68, 92-93, 95-96
Period Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change  Index % change on previous periodAnnual % change
2012 109.4 5.4 112.8 9.1 96.9 -3.7
2013 111.0 1.5 119.7 6.2 93.2 -3.8
2014 116.7 5.1 127.9 6.8 99.7 7.0
2015 116.2 -0.4 130.7 2.2 102.2 2.5
2016 109.2 -6.1 154.0 17.9 97.2 -4.9
             
20161st quarter109.9-2.0-10.9 152.213.115.5 98.85.3-6.1
 2nd quarter110.10.1-3.2 151.9-0.226.9 97.8-1.0-8.8
 3rd quarter111.71.5-3.4 153.00.712.1 94.6-3.3-7.7
 4th quarter105.0-6.0-6.4 158.83.818.0 97.73.34.1
             
20171st quarter106.31.2-3.3 152.4-4.00.2 96.0-1.8-2.8
 2nd quarter111.34.71.1 151.6-0.5-0.2 94.0-2.0-3.9
             
2016February111.02.6-10.7 153.73.629.1 93.92.6-10.1
 March110.5-0.5-7.3 154.40.420.3 110.918.09.1
 April107.9-2.4-1.2 149.8-3.016.1 101.6-8.4-6.3
 May111.73.5-1.7 153.62.639.7 97.8-3.7-10.7
 June110.6-0.9-6.5 152.4-0.826.8 94.1-3.8-9.4
 July111.60.9-7.0 140.3-8.03.4 94.0-0.1-18.3
 August117.45.23.1 162.816.021.2 93.1-1.0-1.9
 September106.1-9.6-6.2 156.0-4.111.8 96.73.9-0.9
 October105.5-0.6-8.4 158.71.713.6 98.01.4-5.9
 November105.80.3-5.5 158.80.112.0 95.4-2.77.8
 December103.7-2.0-5.3 159.00.130.1 99.84.612.1
             
2017January106.42.6-1.7 153.3-3.63.2 94.6-5.13.3
 February104.7-1.5-5.7 154.60.90.6 98.54.14.9
 March107.72.8-2.6 149.4-3.4-3.2 94.8-3.8-14.5
 April111.33.43.2 149.90.30.1 93.0-1.9-8.4
 May108.2-2.8-3.1 151.51.1-1.4 92.0-1.1-5.9
 June114.25.63.2 153.51.30.7 97.15.53.1
 July108.0-5.5-3.3 161.65.215.2 99.32.35.6
 August2105.3-2.5-10.3 132.4-18.0-18.6 100.81.58.3
1 Based on Seasonal Patterns up to August 2017
2 Provisional Value Indices based on early returns from respondents

Background Notes

Introduction  

The monthly services value index (MSI) monitors trends in output at current prices of enterprises in the non-financial traded services sector. This is the first step in the development of a Services Production Index that measures gross value added changes at constant prices, i.e. a volume index.

Sample covered

The sample size is approximately 2,100 enterprises. The sample comprises a census of all enterprises with an annual turnover value of more than €20m or enterprises with more than 100 persons engaged. The remainder of the target population is stratified using 2-digit Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community, i.e. NACE Rev. 2 classifications. Each of these 2-digit NACE sectors are further subdivided into strata based on turnover. A simple random sample is then drawn from each stratum. Retail and Motor Trade figures are taken from the separate Retail Sales Index sample of approximately 1,400 enterprises.

The response rates for the provisional results are typically 49% in terms of the enterprises surveyed which represents 70% of the value of total turnover. The corresponding figures for the final results are 59% and 88% respectively. These response rates are based on averages for the 6 month period ending March 2012.

Methodology

The business activity classifications used in this statistical release are based on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community i.e. NACE Rev. 2. For further information on the NACE Rev. 2 classification of services activity, visit the CSO website:

http://www.cso.ie/px/u/NACECoder/NACEItems/searchnace.asp 

The index system is structured on the non-financial traded services sector covered in the 2010 Annual Services Inquiry (ASI). This non-financial traded services sector is further broken down as follows: 

  • Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles (NACE 45-47)
  • Wholesale Trade (NACE 46)
  • Motors (NACE 45) and Retail Trade (NACE 47) are published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Transport and Storage (NACE 49-53)
  • Accommodation and Food Activities (NACE 55, 56)
  • Accommodation (NACE 55)
  • Food Services Activities (NACE 561, 562)
  • Bars (NACE 563) is currently published separately in the Retail Sales release
  • Information and Communication (NACE 58-63)
  • Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities (NACE 69-75)
  • Administrative and Support Service Activities (NACE 77-82)
  • NACE 7735 – Aircraft leasing is excluded
  • Other Business Services
  • NACE 68 Real estate activities
  • NACE 92 Gambling and betting activities
  • NACE 93 Sports activities and amusements and recreation activities
  • NACE 95 Repair of computers and personal and household goods
  • NACE 96 Other personal service activities

To compile the MSI, each of the above published NACE sectors is separated into three distinct cells based on the constituent enterprises’ reported gross value added (GVA) for 2010. Using data taken from the 2010 ASI, GVA baseweights are then calculated for each of these cells and the baseweights are updated each month using a matched sample approach.  

An enterprise’s monthly GVA value is calculated as follows: respondents report their monthly turnover figures which are transformed into estimated GVA figures by applying a firm specific factor based on an individual respondent’s 2010 ASI return.  The factor is calculated for each firm by simply dividing their estimated GVA by reported turnover.  If an enterprise was not on the ASI sample then the relevant cell mean GVA/turnover ratio, calculated from the 2010 ASI, is applied. The reason for this change in methodology is to reduce the disproportionate impact that some enterprises (which report large turnover figures but have a relatively small GVA) can have on the overall series.

Seasonal Adjustment

Seasonal adjustment for each of the sectors is conducted using a direct seasonal adjustment approach. However, the overall MSI is estimated using the indirect approach, i.e. the MSI is derived by adding the weighted seasonally adjusted sub-components. The main reason for adopting the indirect approach for the MSI is to attribute the monthly and annual changes in the MSI to each of its sub-components. Seasonal adjustment models are developed for each series based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2009 to the current period. These models are reviewed on an annual basis; however seasonal factors are updated each month.

The seasonal adjustment of the MSI is conducted using the X-13ARIMA-SEATS software produced, distributed and maintained by the U.S. Census Bureau. The seasonal estimates take into account other factors that may impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment, i.e. outliers, temporary changes and level shifts.

For additional information on the use of X-13ARIMA-SEATS see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and http://www.census.gov/srd/www/x13as/.

Rebase 2010 – Changes

The main reasons for differences in the new rebased and updated MSI series in comparison with the MSI (base year 2009 =100) are as follows:

  • New cell baseweights were taken from the ASI 2010.
  • A new cell structure/breakdown has been adopted for each sector.  Each enterprise is placed in a particular cell based on the following criteria:
  • Cell 3 If annual GVA is greater than €80,000,000
  • Cell 2 If annual GVA is between €2,500,000 and €80,000,000
  • Cell 1 If annual GVA is less than €2,500,000
  • The new baseweights are now updated each month using changes to respondents’ monthly estimated GVA as opposed to changes in respondents’ reported turnover.
  • To keep with the classifications adopted by ASI 2010 a number of NACE sectors have been excluded from the updated MSI - i.e.
  • NACE 66 – Activities auxiliary to financial services and insurance activities
  • NACE 90 – Creative, arts and entertainment activities
  • NACE 91 – Libraries, archives, museums and other cultural activities
  • NACE 77 - Rental and leasing activities are no longer in Other Business Activities. NACE 77 is now included in Administrative and Support Service Activities.
  • The inclusion of new and revised micro data.
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