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For more information on this release:
E-mail: STS_RAP@Cso.ie Marion McCann (+353) 21 453 5611 Lillian Tobin (+353) 21 453 5585 Alan Finlay (+353) 21 453 5211
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 Visit StatCentral.ie, the portal to Ireland's official statistics On-line ISSN 2009-5295
CSO statistical release, 28 June 2013, 11am

Retail Sales Index

May 2013 (Provisional) April 2013 (Final)

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Index-All Businesses
 (Base Year 2005 = 100)
     Volume IndexValue Index
May 201291.187.3
April 201390.486.1
May 201390.585.8
Monthly % change0.1%-0.4%
Annual % change-0.7%-1.7%

Retail Sales Volume remained steady in May 2013 (+0.1%)

Retail Sales Index - Seasonally Adjusted Volume
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The volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) increased by 0.1% in May 2013 when compared with April 2013 and there was a decrease of 0.7% in the annual figure. (See Table 1). If Motor Trades are excluded, the volume of retail sales increased by 1.4% in May 2013 when compared with April 2013 and there was no change in the annual figure. (See Table 2).

 

The sectors with the largest month on month volume increases are Hardware Paints & Glass (+14.0%), Food, Beverages & Tobacco- specialised stores (+5.2%) and Clothing, Footwear and Textiles (+3.8%).The sectors with the largest monthly decreases were Motor Trade (-5.5%) and Books, Newspapers & Stationery (-3.9%). (See Table 3).

There was a decrease in the value of retail sales in May 2013 when compared with April 2013 of 0.4% and there was an annual decrease of 1.7% when compared with May 2012. If Motor Trades are excluded, there was a monthly increase of 1.1% in the value of retail sales and an annual decrease of 1.0%.  

Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales1
        BaseYear: 2005=100
          
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined
          
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2008Year 110.8-4.5-4.5 107.4-6.0-6.0
2009Year 90.9-18.0-18.0 92.6-13.8-13.8
2010Year 89.1-2.0-2.0 93.91.41.4
2011Year 88.5-0.7-0.7 93.1-0.9-0.9
2012Year 87.9-0.7-0.7 92.1-1.1-1.1
          
          
20121st quarter 87.5-0.8-0.8 91.6-1.2-1.1
 2nd quarter 86.6-1.0-2.9 90.6-1.1-3.5
 3rd quarter 87.81.40.6 91.81.30.0
 4th quarter 88.71.00.6 93.11.40.4
          
20131st quarter 86.4-2.6-1.3 90.6-2.7-1.1
          
2011December 88.90.52.6 93.30.52.5
          
2012January 87.4-1.6-0.3 91.7-1.7-0.8
 February 86.6-1.0-2.0 90.9-0.9-2.1
 March 88.21.9-0.3 92.01.2-0.8
 April 87.2-1.1-1.3 90.7-1.4-2.0
 May 87.30.1-1.3 91.10.5-1.8
 June 85.6-2.0-5.2 90.1-1.2-5.9
 July 87.21.9-1.2 91.21.3-1.2
 August 87.70.50.4 91.60.4-0.6
 September 88.40.92.3 92.40.91.5
 October 90.01.83.5 94.62.33.1
 November 88.3-1.9-0.1 92.5-2.2-0.4
 December 88.0-0.3-0.9 92.3-0.2-1.1
          
2013January 86.7-1.5-0.8 90.9-1.5-0.9
 February 86.80.10.2 91.10.20.2
 March 85.8-1.2-2.8 90.0-1.2-2.2
 April 86.10.4-1.3 90.40.4-0.4
 May2 85.8-0.4-1.7 90.50.1-0.7
          
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to May 2013
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 2 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales (Excluding Motor Trades)1
        Base Year: 2005=100
          
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined (Excl Motor Trades)
          
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2008Year 114.9-0.8-0.8 111.5-2.5-2.5
2009Year 102.1-11.1-11.1 104.1-6.6-6.6
2010Year 97.8-4.2-4.2 103.0-1.1-1.1
2011Year 96.0-1.8-1.8 100.3-2.6-2.6
2012Year 96.40.40.4 100.1-0.2-0.2
          
          
20121st quarter 95.40.1-1.4 98.8-0.6-2.1
 2nd quarter 95.3-0.1-0.2 98.90.1-1.0
 3rd quarter 96.20.91.3 99.70.80.6
 4th quarter 97.00.81.8 100.91.21.5
          
20131st quarter 95.8-1.20.4 99.3-1.60.5
          
          
2011December 95.6-0.50.8 100.0-0.10.6
         
2012January 95.5-0.1-2.1 99.0-0.9-2.9
 February 94.8-0.8-1.7 98.4-0.6-2.0
 March 95.81.0-0.6 99.00.6-1.4
 April 95.7-0.1-0.8 98.8-0.2-1.9
 May 96.50.81.8 99.70.91.1
 June 93.9-2.7-1.5 98.4-1.4-1.9
 July 95.71.9-0.1 99.51.1-0.2
 August 96.20.51.5 99.50.00.4
 September 96.70.52.3 100.10.71.5
 October 97.91.23.9 101.41.33.4
 November 96.6-1.40.5 100.4-1.00.3
 December 96.70.21.2 100.90.61.0
          
2013January 96.3-0.50.8 99.7-1.20.7
 February 96.2-0.11.5 99.6-0.11.3
 March 95.2-1.0-0.6 98.7-0.9-0.3
 April 94.5-0.8-1.3 98.3-0.4-0.5
 May2 95.51.1-1.0 99.71.40.0
          
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to May 2013    
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers  
Table 3 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
 (Preliminary Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 May 2013
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  % change on previous monthAnnual % change  % change on previous monthAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades 54.4-5.7-5.0 60.3-5.5-3.5
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 118.50.0-0.3 115.50.4-0.7
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 82.61.70.5 109.43.52.4
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco89.64.9-1.9 86.45.2-3.5
        
 Fuel110.40.6-2.6 78.13.21.5
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles100.0-0.7-5.0 108.50.7-6.3
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles79.63.3-3.6 112.53.8-1.0
        
 Furniture & Lighting51.63.3-2.3 75.43.73.6
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass76.212.94.4 81.414.07.6
        
 Electrical Goods74.9-4.1-1.1 144.9-2.85.5
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery64.0-2.3-4.6 57.1-3.9-5.9
        
 Other Retail Sales74.90.2-3.6 93.52.82.3
        
 Bars 70.7-0.20.8 63.10.7-1.6
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades95.51.1-1.0 99.71.40.0
        
 All Businesses 85.8-0.4-1.7 90.50.1-0.7
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars98.91.4-1.2 105.12.50.2
        
 Motors & Fuel66.2-3.2-4.2 64.2-3.3-2.2
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars97.81.4-1.0 107.72.10.0
        
 Food Businesses116.10.1-0.4 113.20.6-0.9
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)79.32.0-2.0 101.92.11.0
        
 Household Equipment72.15.91.1 107.75.16.0
        
 Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods72.70.5-4.1 86.91.71.2
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to May 2013, individual series are independently adjusted  
Table 4 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
   Base Year: 2005=100
 April 2013
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  % change on previous monthAnnual % change  % change on previous monthAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades 57.73.0-0.6 63.83.00.7
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 118.5-1.50.4 115.0-1.5-0.2
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 81.2-3.20.4 105.7-3.61.6
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco85.5-2.8-0.5 82.1-3.3-2.5
        
 Fuel109.71.3-2.9 75.70.8-0.6
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles100.73.6-0.9 107.83.5-2.5
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles77.1-1.2-5.4 108.3-0.9-3.5
        
 Furniture & Lighting49.9-2.9-6.6 72.7-2.4-0.5
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass67.51.1-3.3 71.41.7-0.6
        
 Electrical Goods78.11.42.0 149.12.18.3
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery65.57.9-3.8 59.410.3-4.1
        
 Other Retail Sales74.8-0.5-5.2 91.0-0.8-0.2
        
 Bars 70.8-0.8-2.5 62.6-0.9-5.1
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades94.5-0.8-1.3 98.3-0.4-0.5
        
 All Businesses 86.10.4-1.3 90.40.4-0.4
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars97.6-0.7-1.0 102.6-0.8-0.4
        
 Motors & Fuel68.32.7-1.5 66.43.30.3
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars96.4-0.9-0.9 105.5-0.7-0.3
        
 Food Businesses116.0-1.10.1 112.5-1.0-0.7
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)77.8-0.2-2.9 99.80.20.0
        
 Household Equipment68.1-0.2-0.2 102.5-0.15.5
        
 Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods72.4-0.6-5.1 85.51.2-0.5
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to May 2013, individual series are independently adjusted
Table 5 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
 (Preliminary Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 March 2013 - May 2013
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  % change on previous periodAnnual % change  % change on previous periodAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades 56.1-2.6-5.9 62.0-2.2-4.6
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 119.2-1.00.7 115.8-0.9-0.1
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 82.7-5.21.7 108.3-4.22.8
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco87.70.80.5 84.50.7-1.3
        
 Fuel109.4-1.4-2.7 76.20.9-0.4
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles99.1-2.2-3.7 106.6-4.0-5.2
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles78.2-3.0-5.2 110.0-2.0-3.3
        
 Furniture & Lighting51.01.6-3.8 74.23.52.1
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass69.9-4.0-4.4 74.0-2.8-1.7
        
 Electrical Goods76.7-1.03.1 146.70.79.4
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery63.2-4.1-7.7 56.5-5.8-8.7
        
 Other Retail Sales74.91.9-3.1 92.13.72.2
        
 Bars 71.0-3.4-1.3 63.0-4.1-3.8
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades95.1-1.3-0.9 98.9-1.2-0.3
        
 All Businesses 85.9-1.5-1.9 90.3-1.3-1.1
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars98.3-1.0-0.8 103.7-0.90.0
        
 Motors & Fuel67.0-2.5-4.7 64.9-1.1-3.4
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars97.2-0.9-0.6 106.5-0.7-0.1
        
 Food Businesses116.5-0.90.5 113.2-0.5-0.3
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)78.3-1.3-2.2 100.4-0.30.7
        
 Household Equipment69.4-2.00.1 104.1-1.35.7
        
 Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods72.70.8-3.7 85.52.80.7
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to May 2013, individual series are independently adjusted

Background Notes

Retail Sales Index

An updated Retail Sales Index (RSI) was introduced in the February 2009 release. The underlying methodology remains unchanged. The index is primarily intended to measure short-term trends.  For long term analysis allowance must be made for the fact that the series does not reflect changes in retail structures between updates.

Reference Period

The April period covers the 4 weeks from 31/03/13 to 27/04/13 and the May 2013 period covers the 4 weeks from 28/04/13 to 25/05/13.

New Base Year

The set of new monthly retail sales indices has been compiled with reference to base year 2005=100. The underlying structural weighting system is mainly based on the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry. Weights are updated from year to year using ratios of average weekly turnover by size class within business type.

Scope and Coverage

The Retail Sales Index covers, on a sample basis, the retail sales of retail businesses, wholesale businesses with sizeable retailing activity and the separate sales establishments of non-distribution enterprises. Excluded from the index coverage are the direct retail sales from non-distribution establishments together with the incidental retail sales of wholesale businesses. Also excluded are sales by hawkers, street stalls and other retailing activities not conducted from permanent business premises. The statistical unit used for reporting sales figures in this inquiry is the enterprise (i.e. complete business covering all branches).

Methodology

The business categories are based mainly on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE Rev. 2). The index system is structured on the retailing enterprises covered in the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry classified by 13 retail business categories and four turnover (excluding VAT) ranges.

The value indices are calculated by updating the aggregate 2005 retail turnover (including VAT) of these enterprises in these cells using the monthly retail sales data provided by the enterprise respondent panel from 2005 onwards.

The compilation of the index for a current month is based on the percentage change in average weekly sales in these cells over the corresponding monthly period of the previous year. The monthly volume indices are calculated by deflating the seasonally unadjusted value indices by specially constructed retail price indices derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A copy of the Retail Sales Index methodology is available on our website (www.cso.ie).

Seasonal Adjustment

All Retail Sales “unadjusted” series are trading day adjusted as they are based on either a standardised four or five week reporting period (see reference period note above). Seasonal adjustment is conducted using the direct seasonal adjustment approach.  Under this approach each individual series is independently adjusted, e.g. aggregate series are adjusted without reference to the component series. Each individual seasonally adjusted series is calculated based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2000 to the current period.

The adjustments are completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to the unadjusted data. This methodology estimates seasonal factors while also taking into consideration factors that impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment such as:

  • Calendar effects, e.g. the timing of Easter,
  • The phase shift effect, i.e. the fact the reporting period of the RSI does not coincide with the calendar month and
  • Outliers, temporary changes and level shifts in the series.

For additional information on the use of X-12-ARIMA see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and  www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/

Reference

A detailed description of the Retail Sales Index is available on the CSO website  www.cso.ie

Retrospective details for the current and previous series are also available on the CSO website.

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