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For more information on this release:
E-mail: sts_rap@cso.ie Stephanie Kelleher (+353) 21 453 5123 Alan Finlay (+353) 21 453 5211 Lillian Tobin (+353) 21 453 5585
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 Visit StatCentral.ie, the portal to Ireland's official statistics On-line ISSN 2009-5295
CSO statistical release, 28 August 2017, 11am

Retail Sales Index

July 2017 (Provisional) June 2017 (Final)

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Index - All Businesses
 (Base Year 2010 = 100)
     Volume IndexValue Index
July 2016134.0122.1
June 2017122.2111.8
July 2017136.8121.8
Monthly % change11.98.9
Annual % change2.1-0.3

Retail Sales Volume increased by 11.9% in July 2017

Figure 1 Retail Sales Index - Seasonally Adjusted Volume
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Seasonally adjusted, the volume of retail sales increased by 11.9% in the month of July, with an annual increase of 2.1%. See Table 1. If Motor Trades are excluded, there was a decrease of 0.2% in the volume of retail sales in July 2017 when compared with June 2017 and there was an increase of 7.0% in the annual figure. See Table 2.

The sectors with the largest monthly volume increases were Motor Trades (7.0%), Clothing, Footwear & Textiles (3.2%) and Bars (2.6%). See Table 3.  The sectors with the largest month on month volume decreases were  Non-Specialised Stores (-2.2%), Books, Newspapers and Stationery (-1.7%) and Furniture and Lighting (-1.0%).

There was an increase of 8.9% in the value of retail sales in July 2017 when compared with June 2017 and there was an annual decrease of 0.3% when compared with July 2016. If Motor Trades are excluded there was a decrease of 0.4% and an increase of 3.3% in the annual figure.

Unadjusted indices are available on CSO Statbank.

notepa
Business SectorsAnnual % changeMonthly % change
All Businesses2.111.9
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades7-0.2
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars7.3-0.4
Motors & Fuel-5.316.7
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars7.5-0.9
Food Businesses2.5-1.8
Non-Food (excl. Motor trades, Fuel & Bars)11.81
Household Equipment13.30.1
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods15.33
Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales 1
        Base Year: 2010=100
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
   Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
2013Year 96.80.20.2 98.31.31.3
2014Year 102.76.16.1 106.48.28.2
2015Year 109.86.96.9 116.59.59.5
2016Year 114.54.34.3 124.36.76.7
          
20153rd quarter 111.93.97.3 119.95.810.3
 4th quarter 111.90.06.5 119.7-0.29.1
        
20161st quarter 115.33.06.2 123.43.18.3
 2nd quarter 112.7-2.34.6 121.0-2.06.7
 3rd quarter 116.43.34.0 127.25.26.1
 4th quarter 114.3-1.82.1 125.7-1.25.0
          
20171st quarter 116.01.40.6 126.91.02.9
 2nd quarter 113.6-2.00.9 124.9-1.63.3
          
2016February 116.41.19.5 124.91.311.5
 March 114.5-1.62.1 122.3-2.04.2
 April 115.10.54.0 123.91.36.2
 May 114.0-1.05.8 123.0-0.88.1
 June 109.7-3.74.2 117.1-4.86.1
 July 122.111.47.5 134.014.49.3
 August 114.4-6.32.9 124.6-7.05.1
 September 113.5-0.92.1 123.9-0.54.3
 October 113.4-0.12.0 124.30.34.4
 November 115.21.63.1 126.61.96.0
 December 114.5-0.61.6 126.1-0.34.6
          
2017January 116.82.01.5 127.81.43.7
February 115.7-1.0-0.6 126.8-0.91.5
 March 115.5-0.20.8 126.3-0.33.3
 April 113.9-1.4-1.0 125.5-0.61.3
 May 115.61.51.4 127.71.73.9
 June111.8-3.32.0 122.2-4.34.4
 July2121.88.9-0.3 136.811.92.1
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to July 2017
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 2 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales (Excluding Motor Trades)1
        Base Year: 2010=100
  Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined (Excl Motor Trades)
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
   Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
2013Year 96.10.10.1 97.51.21.2
2014Year 98.92.92.9 102.75.35.3
2015Year 102.83.93.9 110.37.47.4
2016Year 105.32.42.4 116.15.35.3
         
20153rd quarter 103.11.55.1 110.92.68.7
4th quarter 104.11.05.0 112.91.88.1
       
20161st quarter 104.10.04.4 113.30.37.1
2nd quarter 104.60.52.9 114.40.95.8
3rd quarter 104.80.11.6 115.51.04.2
4th quarter 105.40.61.2 118.12.24.6
         
20171st quarter 107.62.03.3 120.11.76.0
2nd quarter 108.40.83.6 122.21.86.9
         
2016February 104.41.05.3 113.51.27.8
March 104.40.03.9 114.00.46.8
April 104.30.01.7 113.8-0.24.6
May 104.90.54.5 114.50.77.3
June 104.7-0.22.7 114.70.25.6
July 104.5-0.21.6 114.5-0.24.1
August 104.80.31.6 115.50.84.3
September 104.90.11.5 116.40.84.3
October 105.20.31.4 117.00.54.4
November 106.81.52.4 119.42.16.0
December 104.4-2.30.2 117.9-1.33.6
         
2017January 107.02.53.5 119.21.16.2
February 107.30.32.8 119.70.45.4
 March 108.20.83.7 121.11.26.3
 April 107.9-0.33.4 121.10.06.5
 May 109.11.14.0 122.81.47.2
 June 108.4-0.73.5 122.7-0.17.0
 July2107.9-0.43.3 122.5-0.27.0
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to July 2017
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 3 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - Provisional Results July 2017
   Base Year: 2010=100
 July 2017
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
 IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change
Motor Trades3151.97.1-6.5 159.37.0-6.4
Non-Specialised Stores (excluding Department Stores) 112.1-1.91.1 114.7-2.22.6
Department Stores 97.8-0.31.9 119.6-0.46.6
Food beverages & Tobacco94.21.5-0.1 98.41.11.2
Fuel100.0-2.83.9 101.70.12.5
Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles95.7-0.23.8 104.90.26.5
Clothing, Footwear & Textiles111.52.45.4 135.53.211.6
Furniture and Lighting152.5-1.411.8 207.8-1.018.1
Hardware, Paints & Glass106.91.86.6 122.01.99.9
Electrical Goods112.1-1.82.9 179.2-0.99.5
Books, Newspapers and Stationery81.0-1.82.2 76.0-1.71.6
Other Retail Sales91.50.45.9 143.02.517.9
Bars 107.13.33.8 95.72.61.5
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades107.9-0.43.3 122.5-0.27.0
All Businesses 121.88.9-0.3 136.811.92.1
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
All Businesses excl Motor Trades & Bars108.1-0.63.3 123.9-0.47.3
Motors & Fuel142.45.8-5.8 161.616.7-5.3
All Bus. Excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars108.6-0.53.3 125.5-0.97.5
Food Businesses110.2-1.71.0 112.8-1.82.5
Non-Food (Excl Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)106.6-0.25.5 137.81.011.8
Household Equipment124.0-3.47.4 176.10.113.3
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods89.70.45.3 129.03.015.3
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to July 2017, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Background Notes for further detail
3See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes
Table 4 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - Final Results June 2017
   Base Year: 2010=100
 June 2017
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
 IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change IndexMonthly % changeAnnual % change
Motor Trades3141.90.9-2.5 148.90.8-2.1
Non-Specialised Stores (excluding Department Stores) 114.30.34.2 117.30.56.4
Department Stores 98.0-0.61.2 120.00.06.0
Food beverages & Tobacco92.8-0.2-3.2 97.30.4-1.0
Fuel102.9-3.33.5 101.6-1.52.2
Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles95.9-0.13.3 104.7-1.85.3
Clothing, Footwear & Textiles108.8-1.40.9 131.4-0.65.0
Furniture and Lighting154.61.012.6 209.81.418.9
Hardware, Paints & Glass105.0-5.83.3 119.7-5.46.6
Electrical Goods114.11.73.6 180.92.110.3
Books, Newspapers and Stationery82.54.60.3 77.34.0-0.1
Other Retail Sales91.1-1.72.4 139.5-0.913.2
Bars 103.6-0.41.8 93.3-0.2-0.0
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades108.4-0.73.5 122.7-0.17.0
All Businesses 111.8-3.32.0 122.2-4.34.4
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
All Businesses excl Motor Trades & Bars108.7-0.53.8 124.50.17.2
 Motors & Fuel134.60.3-1.1 138.50.5-1.5
All Bus. Excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars109.2-0.33.7 126.60.17.8
Food Businesses112.10.03.5 114.90.35.5
Non-Food (Excl Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)106.8-0.53.6 136.4-0.39.1
Household Equipment128.4-0.37.8 175.90.413.5
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods89.3-0.82.0 125.3-3.210.6
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to July 2017, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Background Notes for further detail
3See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes
Table 5 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses2 - 3 Monthly Provisional Estimates
 (Provisional Estimates)  Base Year: 2010=100
 May 2017 - July 2017
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
 Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change Index% change on previous periodAnnual % change
Motor Trades3144.53.7-3.9 151.73.3-3.6
Non-Specialised Stores (excluding Department Stores) 113.5-0.03.2 116.30.45.0
Department Stores 98.10.31.6 119.92.06.3
Food beverages & Tobacco93.3-0.4-1.8 97.5-0.9-0.2
Fuel103.1-2.25.2 102.12.12.2
Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles95.92.43.7 105.43.56.4
Clothing, Footwear & Textiles110.10.92.3 132.92.67.6
Furniture and Lighting153.51.411.9 208.32.418.2
Hardware, Paints & Glass107.60.94.7 122.51.48.1
Electrical Goods112.92.63.7 179.34.610.6
Books, Newspapers and Stationery80.94.5-0.3 76.05.8-0.4
Other Retail Sales91.70.63.4 141.03.414.5
Bars 104.8-0.72.0 94.1-2.20.2
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades108.40.63.6 122.61.67.0
All Businesses 116.10.91.1 128.41.73.5
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
All Businesses excl Motor Trades & Bars108.70.73.7 124.31.77.4
Motors & Fuel136.92.6-2.7 145.46.2-2.9
All Bus. Excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars109.11.03.6 126.21.67.8
Food Businesses111.50.32.8 114.10.54.5
Non-Food (Excl Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)106.91.34.3 136.92.910.2
Household Equipment127.21.07.6 175.73.413.4
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods89.61.82.8 127.71.712.2
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to July 2017, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Background Notes for further detail
3See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes

Background Notes

Retail Sales Index

An updated Retail Sales Index (RSI) has been introduced in the January 2017 release. The underlying methodology remains unchanged. The index is primarily intended to measure short-term trends.  For long term analysis, allowance must be made for the fact that the series does not reflect changes in retail structures between updates.

Reference Period

The June 2017 period covers the 5 weeks from 28/05/17 to 01/07/17 and the July 2017 period covers the 4 weeks from 02/07/17 to 29/07/17.

Base Year

This set of monthly retail sales indices has been compiled with reference to base year 2010=100. The underlying structural weighting system is mainly based on the 2010 Annual Services Inquiry. Weights are updated from year to year using ratios of average weekly turnover by size class within business type.

Scope and Coverage

The Retail Sales Index covers, on a matched sample basis, the retail sales of retail businesses, wholesale businesses with sizeable retailing activity, and the separate sales establishments of non-distribution enterprises. Excluded from the index coverage are the direct retail sales from non-distribution establishments together with the incidental retail sales of wholesale businesses. Also excluded are sales by exclusively online retailers, hawkers, street stalls, and other retailing activities not conducted from permanent business premises. The RSI does include internet/online sales of enterprises which have a presence in Ireland but these sales are included under the primary activity of the enterprise, e.g. online grocery sales are included in Non Specialised Stores.The statistical unit used for reporting sales figures in this inquiry is the enterprise (i.e. complete business covering all branches).

Methodology

The business categories are based mainly on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE Rev. 2). The index system is structured on the retailing enterprises covered in the 2010 Annual Services Inquiry classified by 13 retail business categories and four turnover (excluding VAT) ranges. The following NACE Rev.2 categories apply:

  • Motor Trades - Sale, maintenance and repair of new and second-hand vehicles and motorcycles (NACE 45)
  • Non-Specialised Stores - Retail sale in non-specialised stores with food, beverages or tobacco predominating - mainly supermarkets (NACE 47.11)
  • Department Stores -  Retail sale of a large variety of goods of which food products, beverages or tobacco are not predominant activities of the department stores. Retail sale of a general line of merchandise, including wearing apparel, furniture, appliances, hardware, cosmetics, jewellery, toys, sports goods, etc. (NACE 47.19)
  • Food, Beverages & Tobacco -  Retail sale of fruit and vegetables, meat and meat products, fish, crustaceans and molluscs, bread, cakes, flour and sugar confectionery, and beverages in specialised stores (NACE 47.2)
  • Fuel - Retail sale of fuel and lubricating products and cooling products for motor vehicles and motorcycles. Excludes wholesale of fuels (NACE 47.3)
  • Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles - Retail sale of pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopaedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles in specialised stores (NACE 47.73 - 75)
  • Clothing, Footwear & Textiles – Retail sale of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods in specialised stores (NACE 47.51, 47.71 – 72)
  • Furniture & Lighting - Retail sale of furniture, lighting equipment and other household articles in specialised stores (NACE 47.59)
  • Hardware, Paints & Glass - Retail sale of hardware, paints and glass in specialised stores (NACE 47.52)
  • Electrical Goods – Retail sale of information and communication equipment, computers, peripheral units and software, telecommunications equipment, audio and video equipment and electrical household appliances in specialised stores (NACE 47.41-43, 47.54)
  • Books, Newspapers & Stationery – Retail sale of books excluding second-hand or antique books, retail sale of office supplies such as pens, pencils, paper, etc. (NACE 47.61 -.62)
  • Other Retail Sales – Retail sale of carpets, rugs, wall and floor coverings, music and video recordings, games and toys, flowers, plants, seeds, fertilisers, pet animals and pet food, jewellery, and other new goods in specialised stores (NACE 47.53, 47.63-65, 47.76-8)
  • Bars – Preparation and serving of beverages for immediate consumption on the premises (NACE 56.3)

 For a full NACE Rev2 breakdown of the above categories see attached link:

http://www.cso.ie/en/methods/services/retailsalesindex/

The value indices are calculated by updating the aggregate 2010 retail turnover (including VAT) of these enterprises in these cells using the monthly retail sales data provided by the enterprise respondent panel from 2010 onwards.

The compilation of the index for a current month is based on the percentage change in average weekly sales in these cells over the corresponding monthly period of the previous year. The monthly volume indices are calculated by deflating the seasonally unadjusted value indices by specially constructed retail price indices derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A copy of the Retail Sales Index methodology is available on our website (www.cso.ie).

Seasonal Adjustment

All Retail Sales “unadjusted” series are trading day adjusted as they are based on either a standardised four or five week reporting period (see reference period note above). Seasonal adjustment is conducted using the direct seasonal adjustment approach.  Under this approach each individual series is independently adjusted, e.g. aggregate series are adjusted without reference to the component series. Each individual seasonally adjusted series is calculated based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2010 to the current period.

The adjustments are completed by applying the X-13-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau, to the unadjusted data. This methodology estimates seasonal factors while also taking into consideration factors that impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment, such as:

  • Calendar effects e.g. the timing of Easter
  • The phase shift effect i.e. the fact the reporting period of the RSI does not coincide with the calendar month
  • Outliers, temporary changes, and level shifts in the series
     
    Note: Though each series is independently adjusted, no changes were made to the Motor Trade series Seasonal Adjustment model to take account of the introduction of the new car registration system in Ireland in 2013.  This is due to a lack of historical data or comparable models that would be required to inform the Seasonal Adjustment model. Once a seasonal pattern has been established we will be in a position to review the Motor Trade Seasonal Adjustment model.
     
    Note: The Motor Trade group comprises all retail motor trade activities, of which new car sales accounts for approximately 70% of turnover.

Reference

A detailed description of the Retail Sales Index is available on the CSO website  http://www.cso.ie/en/methods/services/retailsalesindex/ Retrospective details for the current and previous series are also available on the CSO website.

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