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For more information on this release:
E-mail: sts_rap@cso.ie Stephanie Kelleher (+353) 21 453 5123 Alan Finlay (+353) 21 453 5211 Lillian Tobin (+353) 21 453 5585
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 On-line ISSN 2009-5295
CSO statistical release, , 11am

Retail Sales Index

December 2015 (Provisional) November 2015 (Final)

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Index-All Businesses
 (Base Year 2005 = 100)
     Volume IndexValue Index
December 2014101.992.8
November 2015109.296.8
December 2015108.496.0
Monthly % change-0.7-0.8
Annual % change6.33.5

Retail Sales Volume decreased by 0.7% in December 2015

Retail Sales Index - Seasonally Adjusted Volume
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The  volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) decreased by 0.7% in December 2015 when compared with November 2015 and there was an increase of 6.3% in the annual figure. (See Table 1). If Motor Trades are excluded, there was a decrease of 0.7% in the volume of retail sales in December 2015 when compared with November 2015 and there was an increase of 5.9% in the annual figure. (See Table 2).

The sectors with the largest month on month volume increases were Food beverages & Tobacco (+1.0%), Hardware, Paints & Glass (+1.0%) and Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles (+0.7%). The sectors with the largest monthly decreases were Electrical Goods (-12.6%), Department Stores (-5.0%) and Motor Trades (-2.2%). (See Table 3).

There was a decrease of 0.8% in the value of retail sales in December 2015 when compared with November 2015 and there was an annual increase of 3.5% when compared with December 2014. If Motor Trades are excluded, there was a decrease of 0.9% in the value of retail sales and an annual increase of 3.0%.

Business SectorsAnnualMonthly
All Businesses6.3-0.7
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades5.9-0.7
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars5.9-1.2
Motors & Fuel3.1-2
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars6.4-1.6
Food Businesses4.30.1
Non-Food (excl. Motor trades, Fuel & Bars)8-2.8
Household Equipment6-6.1
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods14.20.8
Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales 1
        Base Year: 2005=100
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2011Year 88.5-0.7-0.7 93.1-0.9-0.9
2012Year 87.9-0.7-0.7 92.1-1.1-1.1
2013Year 87.7-0.2-0.2 92.70.70.7
2014Year 91.34.14.1 98.66.46.4
2015Year2 95.95.05.0 106.88.38.3
          
20141st quarter 90.10.45.2 96.20.67.2
 2nd quarter 90.0-0.23.8 96.0-0.25.7
 3rd quarter 92.42.74.6 100.54.76.8
 4th quarter 92.3-0.12.8 100.80.35.4
          
20151st quarter 95.13.15.6 104.94.19.1
 2nd quarter 94.5-0.75.0 103.7-1.28.0
 3rd quarter 97.33.05.3 109.55.69.0
 4th quarter2 96.1-1.24.1 108.2-1.27.3
          
2014July 92.82.95.6 102.47.28.7
 August 92.2-0.74.5 99.4-3.06.3
 September 92.20.03.8 99.80.45.8
 October 92.20.02.9 100.20.45.3
 November 91.8-0.42.4 100.1-0.14.9
 December 92.81.13.0 101.91.86.0
          
2015January 94.72.14.8 104.32.38.2
February 94.3-0.45.4 104.1-0.29.1
March 96.11.86.3 106.12.09.8
 April 96.60.68.4 106.80.611.9
 May 95.6-1.15.6 105.6-1.28.7
 June 91.8-4.01.9 99.7-5.64.3
 July 98.87.76.5 112.913.210.2
 August 96.8-2.05.1 108.0-4.38.7
 September 96.4-0.54.6 107.9-0.18.2
 October 95.4-1.03.6 107.1-0.86.9
 November 96.81.45.5 109.22.09.1
December296.0-0.83.5 108.4-0.76.3
          
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2015    
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
          
Table 2 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales (Excluding Motor Trades)1
        Base Year: 2005=100
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined (Excl Motor Trades)
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2011Year 96.0-1.8-1.8 100.3-2.6-2.6
2012Year 96.40.40.4 100.1-0.2-0.2
2013Year 96.3-0.1-0.1 100.90.80.8
2014Year 97.81.61.6 104.63.73.7
2015Year2 100.52.82.8 111.16.26.2
          
20141st quarter 97.00.60.9 102.30.72.8
 2nd quarter 97.30.32.4 103.51.14.3
 3rd quarter 97.30.01.3 104.00.53.2
 4th quarter 97.90.71.6 106.01.94.3
          
20151st quarter 98.20.31.2 107.51.45.0
 2nd quarter 100.22.13.0 110.02.46.3
 3rd quarter 100.60.33.4 111.41.27.1
 4th quarter2 101.20.63.3 113.11.66.7
          
2014July 97.6-0.31.0 104.0-0.33.2
 August 97.60.01.8 104.20.23.4
 September 96.8-0.91.0 103.9-0.33.1
 October 98.11.42.0 105.51.54.6
 November 97.3-0.81.2 105.0-0.43.7
 December 98.31.01.5 107.32.14.6
        
2015January 98.2-0.10.8 107.20.04.6
February 98.50.31.1 107.90.65.2
March 98.0-0.51.7 107.4-0.55.2
 April 100.62.63.9 110.93.37.7
 May 100.3-0.33.4 109.8-1.06.5
 June 99.9-0.42.1 109.5-0.35.0
 July 100.70.73.1 110.71.16.5
 August100.70.13.2 111.40.66.9
 September100.3-0.43.7 111.80.47.6
 October100.1-0.22.0 111.2-0.55.5
 November102.22.15.0 114.42.88.9
December2101.2-0.93.0 113.6-0.75.9
          
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2015
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 3 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
 (Preliminary Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 December 2015
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  Monthly % changeAnnual % change  Monthly % changeAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades2 79.3-2.43.0 92.0-2.24.8
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 128.30.43.7 128.10.54.9
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 93.2-3.93.0 130.8-5.06.7
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco85.30.9-0.2 84.31.01.0
        
 Fuel98.01.1-9.1 78.40.5-2.3
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles101.2-0.62.6 116.40.76.5
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles86.6-0.92.1 132.3-0.95.8
        
 Furniture & Lighting68.9-0.113.3 116.30.418.9
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass79.50.82.2 87.11.03.4
        
 Electrical Goods81.3-12.70.3 178.1-12.63.9
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery64.50.33.7 55.80.22.1
        
 Other Retail Sales81.40.08.4 117.80.415.6
        
 Bars 79.80.06.2 69.0-0.15.9
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades101.2-0.93.0 113.6-0.75.9
        
 All Businesses 96.0-0.83.5 108.4-0.76.3
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars104.6-0.62.8 119.5-1.25.9
        
 Motors & Fuel81.1-2.4-1.5 87.6-2.03.1
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars104.7-1.03.7 123.0-1.66.4
        
 Food Businesses124.30.13.2 123.90.14.3
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)85.6-2.54.3 121.3-2.88.0
        
 Household Equipment77.9-5.62.9 131.8-6.16.0
        
 Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods79.10.77.8 107.30.814.2
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2015, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes
Table 4 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
   Base Year: 2005=100
 November 2015
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  Monthly % changeAnnual % change  Monthly % changeAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades2 81.3-1.910.8 94.0-1.912.6
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 127.80.84.1 127.41.05.3
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 97.07.711.2 137.67.414.1
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco84.61.71.4 83.51.82.7
        
 Fuel96.90.7-10.2 78.00.3-1.1
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles101.92.35.9 115.62.49.9
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles87.5-1.92.6 133.5-1.55.6
        
 Furniture & Lighting69.00.313.6 115.90.318.7
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass78.81.44.2 86.21.55.6
        
 Electrical Goods93.213.817.6 203.813.821.8
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery64.40.32.4 55.70.31.3
        
 Other Retail Sales81.44.65.3 117.34.413.4
        
 Bars 79.8-0.85.5 69.10.05.2
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades102.22.15.0 114.42.88.9
        
 All Businesses 96.81.45.5 109.22.09.1
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars105.22.54.8 121.03.99.3
        
 Motors & Fuel83.1-0.54.2 89.4-0.510.0
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars105.72.26.0 125.03.89.6
        
 Food Businesses124.21.14.0 123.71.15.2
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)87.83.98.5 124.84.513.2
        
 Household Equipment82.56.011.5 140.47.016.6
        
 Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods78.64.15.3 106.54.812.5
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2015, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes  
Table 5 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses
 (Preliminary Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 October 2015 - December 2015
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  % change on previous periodAnnual % change  % change on previous periodAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades2 81.0-5.08.9 93.8-4.710.8
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 127.71.03.6 127.30.94.8
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 93.44.75.6 132.14.38.8
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco84.41.30.0 83.41.41.3
        
 Fuel97.1-4.8-10.8 78.1-2.3-2.0
        
 Pharmaceuticals Medical & Cosmetic Articles100.91.83.7 115.12.77.4
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles87.7-1.34.1 133.6-0.77.4
        
 Furniture & Lighting68.94.113.2 115.98.018.7
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass78.70.12.6 86.20.34.0
        
 Electrical Goods85.20.56.8 186.31.610.7
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery64.4-0.42.8 55.7-0.81.3
        
 Other Retail Sales80.21.84.0 116.03.512.0
        
 Bars 80.00.56.4 69.01.05.8
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades101.20.63.3 113.11.66.7
        
 All Businesses 96.1-1.24.1 108.2-1.27.3
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars104.20.92.9 119.01.76.7
        
 Motors & Fuel82.5-6.91.8 88.8-8.17.7
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars104.61.14.2 122.81.87.1
        
 Food Businesses123.80.73.3 123.40.84.5
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)85.91.65.3 121.82.49.5
        
 Household Equipment79.31.36.1 134.22.210.1
        
 Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods77.81.73.9 105.33.510.7
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to December 2015, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes  

Background Notes

Retail Sales Index

An updated Retail Sales Index (RSI) was introduced in the February 2009 release. The underlying methodology remains unchanged. The index is primarily intended to measure short-term trends.  For long term analysis allowance must be made for the fact that the series does not reflect changes in retail structures between updates.

Reference Period

The November 2015 period covers the 4 weeks from 01/11/15 to 28/11/15 and the December 2015 period covers the 5 weeks from 29/11/15 to 02/01/16.

Base Year

This set of monthly retail sales indices has been compiled with reference to base year 2005=100. The underlying structural weighting system is mainly based on the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry. Weights are updated from year to year using ratios of average weekly turnover by size class within business type.

Scope and Coverage

The Retail Sales Index covers, on a sample basis, the retail sales of retail businesses, wholesale businesses with sizeable retailing activity and the separate sales establishments of non-distribution enterprises. Excluded from the index coverage are the direct retail sales from non-distribution establishments together with the incidental retail sales of wholesale businesses. Also excluded are sales by hawkers, street stalls and other retailing activities not conducted from permanent business premises. The statistical unit used for reporting sales figures in this inquiry is the enterprise (i.e. complete business covering all branches).

Methodology

The business categories are based mainly on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE Rev. 2). The index system is structured on the retailing enterprises covered in the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry classified by 13 retail business categories and four turnover (excluding VAT) ranges.

The value indices are calculated by updating the aggregate 2005 retail turnover (including VAT) of these enterprises in these cells using the monthly retail sales data provided by the enterprise respondent panel from 2005 onwards.

The compilation of the index for a current month is based on the percentage change in average weekly sales in these cells over the corresponding monthly period of the previous year. The monthly volume indices are calculated by deflating the seasonally unadjusted value indices by specially constructed retail price indices derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A copy of the Retail Sales Index methodology is available on our website (www.cso.ie).

Seasonal Adjustment

All Retail Sales “unadjusted” series are trading day adjusted as they are based on either a standardised four or five week reporting period (see reference period note above). Seasonal adjustment is conducted using the direct seasonal adjustment approach.  Under this approach each individual series is independently adjusted, e.g. aggregate series are adjusted without reference to the component series. Each individual seasonally adjusted series is calculated based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2000 to the current period.

The adjustments are completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to the unadjusted data. This methodology estimates seasonal factors while also taking into consideration factors that impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment such as:

  • Calendar effects, e.g. the timing of Easter,
  • The phase shift effect, i.e. the fact the reporting period of the RSI does not coincide with the calendar month and
  • Outliers, temporary changes and level shifts in the series.
     
    Note: Athough each series is independently adjusted, no changes were made to the Motor Trade series Seasonal Adjustment model to take account of the introduction of the new car registration system in Ireland in 2013.  This is due to a lack of historical data or comparable models that would be required to inform the Seasonal Adjustment model. Once a seasonal pattern has been established we will be in a position to review the Motor Trade Seasonal Ajustment model.
     
    Also to note, the Motor Trade group comprises all retail motor trade activities, of which new car sales accounts for approximately 45% of turnover.

For additional information on the use of X-12-ARIMA see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.) and  www.census.gov/srd/www/x12a/

Reference

A detailed description of the Retail Sales Index is available on the CSO website  http://www.cso.ie/en/surveysandmethodology/services/retailsalesindexsurveys/retailsalesindex/ Retrospective details for the current and previous series are also available on the CSO website.

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