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For more information on this release:
E-mail: sts_rap@cso.ie Stephanie Kelleher (+353) 21 453 5123 Alan Finlay (+353) 21 453 5211 Lillian Tobin (+353) 21 453 5585
For general information on CSO statistics:
information@cso.ie (+353) 21 453 5000 Visit StatCentral.ie, the portal to Ireland's official statistics On-line ISSN 2009-5295
CSO statistical release, 28 September 2016, 11am

Retail Sales Index

August 2016 (Provisional) July 2016 (Final)

Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Index - All Businesses
 (Base Year 2005 = 100)
     Volume IndexValue Index
August 2015108.797.0
July 2016119.9103.7
August 2016114.399.8
Monthly % change-4.7-3.7
Annual % change5.22.9

Retail Sales Volume decreased by 4.7% in August 2016

Retail Sales Index - Seasonally Adjusted Volume
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The  volume of retail sales (i.e. excluding price effects) decreased by 4.7% in August 2016 when compared with July 2016 and there was an increase of 5.2% in the annual figure. (See Table 1). If Motor Trades are excluded, there was an increase of 0.9% in the volume of retail sales in August 2016 when compared with July 2016 and there was an increase of 4.1% in the annual figure. (See Table 2).

The sectors with the largest month on month volume decreases were Motor Trades (-11.1%), Bars, (-2.7%) and Department Stores (-1.1%). The sectors with the largest monthly increases were Furniture and Lighting (+8.8%), Other Retail Sales (+5.1%) and Hardware, Paints & Glass (+4.6%). (See Table 3).

There was a decrease of 3.7% in the value of retail sales in August 2016 when compared with July 2016 and there was an annual increase of 2.9% when compared with August 2015. If Motor Trades are excluded, there was no change in the value of retail sales and an annual increase of 1.8%.

 

notepa
Business SectorsAnnualMonthly
All Businesses5.2-4.7
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades4.10.9
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars4.61.5
Motors & Fuel8.9-12.8
All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars4.51.3
Food Businesses2.6-1.5
Non-Food (excl. Motor trades, Fuel & Bars)5.82.8
Household Equipment72.8
Books, Newspapers Stationery & Other Goods6.53.9
Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales 1
        Base Year: 2005=100
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2012Year 87.9-0.7-0.7 92.1-1.1-1.1
2013Year 87.7-0.2-0.2 92.70.70.7
2014Year 91.34.14.1 98.66.46.4
2015Year 95.84.94.9 106.78.28.2
          
          
20143rd quarter 92.12.04.4 100.34.26.9
 4th quarter 92.70.73.1 101.41.15.8
          
20151st quarter 94.62.05.3 104.53.08.7
 2nd quarter 94.90.35.1 103.9-0.58.0
 3rd quarter 97.22.55.3 109.35.29.0
 4th quarter 96.7-0.54.3 109.0-0.37.5
          
20161st quarter 100.64.06.4 113.23.88.3
 2nd quarter 98.3-2.33.6 110.2-2.76.0
          
          
2015March 96.33.26.4 106.83.310.1
 April 96.70.58.4 107.20.412.1
May 95.0-1.85.2 105.4-1.88.4
 June 93.2-1.92.5 100.1-4.94.5
 July 98.25.36.4 111.211.110.2
 August 97.0-1.25.1 108.7-2.38.8
 September 96.6-0.44.6 108.4-0.28.3
 October 95.7-0.93.7 107.6-0.77.0
 November 97.41.85.8 110.02.29.5
 December 97.0-0.53.7 109.3-0.66.3
        
2016January 102.65.89.4 113.74.010.7
February 101.1-1.48.4 114.40.710.7
 March 98.7-2.42.5 111.8-2.34.7
 April 99.20.52.5 112.80.95.2
 May 99.80.75.0 113.60.77.8
 June 96.4-3.53.4 105.4-7.25.2
 July 103.77.55.6 119.913.87.8
 August2 99.8-3.72.9 114.3-4.75.2
   
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to August 2016    
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 2 Seasonally Adjusted Indices of Total Retail Sales (Excluding Motor Trades)1
        Base Year: 2005=100
   Total Retail Sales for all Businesses Combined (Excl Motor Trades)
Period  Value of Sales Volume of Sales
          
    % change on previous period   % change on previous period 
    Annual % change  Annual % change
   Index Index
          
2012Year 96.40.40.4 100.1-0.2-0.2
2013Year 96.3-0.1-0.1 100.90.80.8
2014Year 97.81.61.6 104.63.73.7
2015Year 100.42.72.7 111.06.16.1
          
          
20143rd quarter 97.3-0.11.2 104.10.63.2
 4th quarter 98.00.81.6 106.11.94.3
        
20151st quarter 98.00.01.1 107.41.24.9
 2nd quarter 100.32.43.1 110.12.56.3
 3rd quarter 100.50.23.3 111.51.37.1
 4th quarter 101.10.63.2 112.81.26.4
          
20161st quarter 102.10.94.1 114.21.26.4
 2nd quarter 102.70.62.4 115.41.04.8
          
          
2015March 98.50.71.8 107.70.55.3
 April 101.32.84.1 111.23.27.8
May 100.0-1.23.4 109.4-1.66.4
 June 99.9-0.12.1 109.70.35.1
 July 100.91.03.2 111.11.36.6
 August 100.4-0.43.0 111.20.16.8
 September 100.3-0.23.6 112.00.77.7
 October 100.0-0.22.0 111.2-0.75.4
 November 102.12.15.0 114.32.98.9
 December 101.2-0.92.7 113.0-1.25.2
        
2016January 102.21.04.6 113.90.86.5
 February 102.20.04.5 114.40.46.7
 March 101.9-0.33.5 114.3-0.16.1
 April 102.10.20.8 114.70.43.1
 May 103.71.63.7 116.31.46.2
 June 102.4-1.32.5 115.2-0.95.0
July 102.3-0.21.4 114.7-0.43.2
August 2 102.30.01.8 115.70.94.1
          
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to August 2016
2Provisional value and volume of sales indices based on early returns from sample retailers
Table 3 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses - Provisional Results August 2016
 (Provisional Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 August 2016
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  Monthly % changeAnnual % change  Monthly % changeAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades2 94.7-4.79.1 109.6-11.110.2
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 129.2-1.02.2 129.6-0.92.9
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 88.6-1.4-1.7 126.6-1.1-1.4
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco85.30.80.6 84.60.61.2
        
 Fuel99.43.0-1.5 83.22.76.6
        
 Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles101.61.81.4 114.81.81.9
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles96.34.39.0 147.54.49.9
        
 Furniture & Lighting71.76.16.6 124.68.812.3
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass83.04.34.8 92.44.66.8
        
 Electrical Goods84.10.5-0.3 192.81.25.5
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery64.6-0.3-0.7 55.5-0.7-2.0
        
 Other Retail Sales78.73.21.0 119.75.18.0
        
 Bars 80.8-2.0-0.9 68.7-2.7-1.5
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades102.30.01.8 115.70.94.1
        
 All Businesses 99.8-3.72.9 114.3-4.75.2
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars105.30.22.2 122.01.54.6
        
 Motors & Fuel95.3-2.85.7 103.5-12.88.9
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars105.8-0.12.5 125.71.34.5
        
 Food Businesses124.8-1.61.9 125.2-1.52.6
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)86.82.32.9 125.52.85.8
        
 Household Equipment81.13.93.0 140.62.87.0
        
 Books, Newspapers, Stationery & Other Goods76.22.50.7 107.23.96.5
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to August 2016, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes
Table 4 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses - Final Results July 2016
   Base Year: 2005=100
 July 2016
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  Monthly % changeAnnual % change  Monthly % changeAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades2 99.417.117.4 123.226.421.8
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 130.50.63.3 130.80.93.8
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 89.90.21.1 128.0-0.11.6
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco84.6-1.61.3 84.1-1.62.1
        
 Fuel96.5-2.2-7.4 81.1-0.01.1
        
 Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles99.8-0.21.0 112.8-0.60.8
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles92.4-1.54.0 141.3-1.95.2
        
 Furniture & Lighting67.613.23.9 114.611.210.5
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass79.60.03.0 88.30.34.9
        
 Electrical Goods83.7-0.9-0.9 190.5-0.34.8
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery64.8-2.8-1.1 55.9-3.8-2.2
        
 Other Retail Sales76.2-2.4-5.2 113.9-2.70.7
        
 Bars 82.4-0.73.5 70.60.02.7
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades102.3-0.21.4 114.7-0.43.2
        
 All Businesses 103.77.55.6 119.913.87.8
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars105.10.01.5 120.2-0.43.1
        
 Motors & Fuel98.011.311.1 118.625.418.9
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars105.90.12.4 124.1-0.53.4
        
 Food Businesses126.80.53.2 127.00.73.9
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)84.8-1.10.6 122.1-0.93.4
        
 Household Equipment78.0-0.51.5 136.80.85.7
        
 Books, Newspapers, Stationery & Other Goods74.4-2.3-4.4 103.1-2.70.4
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to August 2016, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes  
Table 5 Seasonally Adjusted1 Value and Volume Indices of Retail Sales for 13 Retail Businesses - 3 Monthly Provisional Estimates
 (Provisional Estimates)  Base Year: 2005=100
 June 2016 - August 2016
Retail Business - NACE REV 2Value of Sales Volume of Sales
        
  % change on previous periodAnnual % change  % change on previous periodAnnual % change
 Index Index
        
 Motor Trades2 92.44.712.5 109.16.914.8
        
 Non-Specialised Stores 129.80.32.9 130.00.23.4
 (excluding Department Stores)        
        
 Department Stores 89.4-0.80.5 127.7-1.01.5
        
 Food, Beverages & Tobacco85.30.42.0 84.70.32.8
        
 Fuel98.21.0-5.6 81.70.42.4
        
 Pharmaceuticals, Medical & Cosmetic Articles100.4-0.12.0 113.7-0.92.0
        
 Clothing, Footwear & Textiles94.11.46.9 144.31.38.5
        
 Furniture & Lighting65.8-5.55.1 113.2-3.911.2
        
 Hardware, Paints & Glass80.6-2.62.2 89.5-1.94.1
        
 Electrical Goods84.12.30.9 191.54.16.6
        
 Books, Newspapers & Stationery65.4-0.3-0.5 56.60.4-1.1
        
 Other Retail Sales77.7-4.6-2.8 116.9-3.13.6
        
 Bars 82.11.44.3 70.00.73.6
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades102.3-0.22.0 115.20.24.2
        
 All Businesses 99.70.53.9 112.60.06.1
        
Of which:-       
    Combined Groups       
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades & Bars105.2-0.11.9 120.90.04.1
        
 Motors & Fuel93.33.17.2 104.77.412.5
        
 All Businesses excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars105.9-0.12.7 124.90.04.3
        
 Food Businesses126.00.02.8 126.10.23.5
        
 Non-Food (excl. Motor Trades, Fuel & Bars)85.8-1.52.0 123.6-0.55.1
        
 Household Equipment79.1-1.42.2 137.51.46.7
        
 Books, Newspapers, Stationery & Other Goods75.6-3.5-2.4 105.5-3.92.9
        
1Based on Seasonal Patterns up to August 2016, individual series are independently adjusted
2See Seasonal Adjustment in Background Notes  

Background Notes

Retail Sales Index

An updated Retail Sales Index (RSI) was introduced in the February 2009 release. The underlying methodology remains unchanged. The index is primarily intended to measure short-term trends.  For long term analysis allowance must be made for the fact that the series does not reflect changes in retail structures between updates.

Reference Period

The July 2016 period covers the 4 weeks from 03/07/16 to 30/07/16 and the August 2016 period covers the 4 weeks from 31/07/16 to 27/08/16.

Base Year

This set of monthly retail sales indices has been compiled with reference to base year 2005=100. The underlying structural weighting system is mainly based on the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry. Weights are updated from year to year using ratios of average weekly turnover by size class within business type.

Scope and Coverage

The Retail Sales Index covers, on a sample basis, the retail sales of retail businesses, wholesale businesses with sizeable retailing activity and the separate sales establishments of non-distribution enterprises. Excluded from the index coverage are the direct retail sales from non-distribution establishments together with the incidental retail sales of wholesale businesses. Also excluded are sales by hawkers, street stalls and other retailing activities not conducted from permanent business premises. The statistical unit used for reporting sales figures in this inquiry is the enterprise (i.e. complete business covering all branches).

Methodology

The business categories are based mainly on the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE Rev. 2). The index system is structured on the retailing enterprises covered in the 2005 Annual Services Inquiry classified by 13 retail business categories and four turnover (excluding VAT) ranges.

The value indices are calculated by updating the aggregate 2005 retail turnover (including VAT) of these enterprises in these cells using the monthly retail sales data provided by the enterprise respondent panel from 2005 onwards.

The compilation of the index for a current month is based on the percentage change in average weekly sales in these cells over the corresponding monthly period of the previous year. The monthly volume indices are calculated by deflating the seasonally unadjusted value indices by specially constructed retail price indices derived from the Consumer Price Index (CPI). A copy of the Retail Sales Index methodology is available on our website (www.cso.ie).

Seasonal Adjustment

All Retail Sales “unadjusted” series are trading day adjusted as they are based on either a standardised four or five week reporting period (see reference period note above). Seasonal adjustment is conducted using the direct seasonal adjustment approach.  Under this approach each individual series is independently adjusted, e.g. aggregate series are adjusted without reference to the component series. Each individual seasonally adjusted series is calculated based on unadjusted data spanning from January 2000 to the current period.

The adjustments are completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to the unadjusted data. This methodology estimates seasonal factors while also taking into consideration factors that impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment such as:

  • Calendar effects, e.g. the timing of Easter
  • The phase shift effect, i.e. the fact the reporting period of the RSI does not coincide with the calendar month
  • Outliers, temporary changes and level shifts in the series
     
    Note: Athough each series is independently adjusted, no changes were made to the Motor Trade series Seasonal Adjustment model to take account of the introduction of the new car registration system in Ireland in 2013.  This is due to a lack of historical data or comparable models that would be required to inform the Seasonal Adjustment model. Once a seasonal pattern has been established we will be in a position to review the Motor Trade Seasonal Ajustment model.
     
    Also to note, the Motor Trade group comprises all retail motor trade activities, of which new car sales accounts for approximately 45% of turnover.

For additional information on the use of X-12-ARIMA see (Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-Arima Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp. 127-177.)

Reference

A detailed description of the Retail Sales Index is available on the CSO website  http://www.cso.ie/en/surveysandmethodology/services/retailsalesindexsurveys/retailsalesindex/ Retrospective details for the current and previous series are also available on the CSO website.

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