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E-mail: nat_acc@cso.ie Gordon Cavanagh (+353) 1 498 4307 Andrew McManus (+353) 1 498 4368
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CSO statistical release, 10 March 2016, 11am

Quarterly National Accounts

Quarter 4 2015 and Year 2015 (Preliminary)

  GDP and GNP at constant 2013 prices 
    
           Jan-Dec 2015 
    Amount €mAnnual % change 
GDP203,5247.8 
GNP171,8675.7 
    

Annual increase of 7.8 per cent in Real GDP in 2015

Figure 1 Seasonally Adjusted growth rates (% change on previous quarter)

Preliminary estimates indicate that GDP in volume terms increased by 7.8 per cent for the year 2015.  GNP showed an increase of 5.7 per cent in 2015 over 2014.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, constant price GDP for the fourth quarter of 2015 increased by 2.7 per cent compared with the previous quarter while GNP increased by 3.4 per cent over the same period.

Value added for all business sectors increased in 2015

Value added of industry rose by 13.7 per cent in volume terms in 2015 compared to 2014, with manufacturing recording a 14.2 per cent increase in real terms and building and construction recording an 8.8 per cent increase, see Table 1. The distribution, transport, software and communications sector increased by 8.7 per cent while the agriculture sector increased by 6.4 per cent, and other services by 4.3 per cent. Public administration and defence recorded an annual decline of 2.6 per cent.

Capital Investment and Personal Consumption increase, Net Exports decline

On the expenditure side of the accounts (Table 3), capital formation rose strongly by 28.2 per cent during 2015.  Personal consumption, which accounts for 55 per cent of domestic demand, rose by 3.5 per cent, while government expenditure exhibited a slight decline over the same period (0.8 per cent). Total domestic demand increased by 9.3 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014.

Import growth during the year of 16.4 per cent outpaced that of exports at 13.8 per cent. Overall net exports for the year was little changed, increasing by €250m and when combined with the 9.3 per cent increase in domestic demand, resulted in an overall increase in real GDP in 2015 of 7.8 per cent. 

 

Note that the Nace Rev. 2 classification system is now being used in tables 1 and 4. This replaces the national classification used in previous releases. See the Background Notes for further details.

The calculation methods for quarterly accounts are similar to those used in the annual National Income and Expenditure. As some of the available sources are of lesser reliability than those used for the annual national accounts, the quarterly estimates are subject to a greater margin of error than the annual figures. These preliminary estimates will therefore be revised when the next detailed annual results are published.

 

Increase of 3.4 per cent in GNP (seasonally adjusted) in Quarter 4

Initial estimates for the fourth quarter of 2015 indicate that there was an increase of 2.7 per cent in GDP in real terms in Q4 2015 compared to the previous quarter. Industry made the most positive contribution to the Q4 result, rising by 6.4 per cent (within which manufacturing recorded a 7.2 per cent increase with building and construction recording a 1.0 per cent increase). Increases were also recorded in other services (1.1 per cent) and public administration and defence (0.7 per cent). Distribution, transport, software and communication declined marginally by 0.2 per cent over the period compared with Q3 2015, while agriculture decreased by 1.1 per cent.

On the expenditure side there was an increase in net exports of €772m (9.7 per cent) during the quarter, largely driven by higher exports (3.4 per cent).  Capital investment exhibited an increase of 2.9 per cent while personal consumption expenditure increased by 1.0 per cent in Q4 compared to Q3.

Factor income outflows were 4.8 per cent lower than in the previous quarter leading to an overall increase in GNP of 3.4 per cent for the fourth quarter compared with the previous quarter.

 

Click here to see a a copy of the Q4 2015 Quarterly National Accounts & Balance of Payments Press Briefing Slides (PDF 1,778KB)

 

GDP %GNP %
2014 Q11.71.9
2014 Q21.51.6
2014 Q32.13
2014 Q40.62.1
2015 Q12.70.3
2015 Q22.11.6
2015 Q31.5-0.5
2015 Q42.73.4
Table 1 Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin and Gross National Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2013)*
(Note the sectors here are based on Nace rev 2. For further details see the methodology notes at the back)€million
PeriodAgric. Forestry and fishingIndustryof which Building and constructionDist. Transport software and comms.Public admin. and defenceOther services (including rent) GDP at constant factor cost   Taxes less subsidiesGDP at constant market costNet factor income from rest of worldGNP at constant market prices
 
 
 
20094,06944,2566,74139,9606,94066,477 155,40316,168171,503-30,563141,031
20104,09645,2234,97241,3356,78065,964 156,56615,649172,187-27,927144,169
20114,37644,8144,26141,5326,43267,762 161,50715,152176,643-33,693142,976
20124,26943,6304,00441,4146,23068,048 161,76415,149176,910-31,532145,318
20133,95341,9044,38844,8906,17566,692 163,11816,330179,448-27,406152,042
20144,64744,8794,72547,3986,15469,516 171,14617,631188,778-26,241162,537
20154,94551,0115,14251,5045,99272,505 184,19119,333203,524-31,657171,867
2009            
Q11,11412,2081,8349,9131,69116,466 39,3674,41143,735-7,59136,142
Q21,47712,0341,6679,8741,75216,468 39,9253,29143,262-8,08135,251
Q384610,2531,67410,2181,77416,760 37,9624,83142,708-8,14734,652
Q46329,7611,5669,9541,72216,783 38,1483,63541,798-6,74434,987
2010            
Q195912,1451,20710,0741,65416,174 38,8214,13942,939-8,05434,934
Q21,29411,7271,21610,0451,70816,390 39,6383,10842,769-7,86834,940
Q31,04110,5591,28010,7461,74416,531 38,9424,84343,742-7,00236,710
Q480210,7921,27010,4701,67416,869 39,1663,56042,737-5,00237,585
2011            
Q11,00611,5641,10110,2681,59216,263 38,8514,21943,062-8,22634,843
Q21,36012,2791,05310,3531,66017,019 41,7902,94544,742-8,78935,965
Q31,14710,5161,05710,3811,60617,125 40,1994,45744,645-8,56236,090
Q486310,4551,05010,5301,57517,355 40,6673,53244,195-8,11536,079
2012            
Q11,10211,68591010,0131,51516,551 39,5384,22643,752-8,79434,981
Q21,41312,0309489,6491,56016,693 41,7853,07844,886-7,89336,974
Q31,02010,2121,02210,8501,59017,276 40,0384,69744,710-7,79936,889
Q47339,7021,12510,9021,56417,528 40,4023,14843,562-7,04636,474
2013            
Q173910,94495210,4351,49016,151 39,0024,49343,524-6,97736,543
Q21,09611,4531,03210,7691,54516,404 40,9033,31244,202-7,80336,385
Q31,1939,9591,16611,7891,58816,937 41,9664,94446,913-6,91739,999
Q49249,5481,23611,8971,55217,200 41,2473,58144,809-5,70939,115
2014            
Q186111,0881,04411,0541,52316,816 40,5134,81045,323-7,20838,115
Q21,35713,1381,18811,1291,57916,921 43,4843,81047,294-7,01340,282
Q31,31210,3801,25912,6751,54717,823 43,7264,94548,670-7,20141,470
Q41,11810,2731,23412,5401,50417,956 43,4234,06747,490-4,82042,670
2015            
Q188512,3351,16012,1431,44017,560 43,5185,28948,807-7,37041,437
Q21,31513,8901,26812,3711,51017,654 46,4944,16250,656-8,03042,626
Q31,52612,1161,35813,6701,53218,498 46,6495,53752,187-9,25642,930
Q41,22012,6701,35713,3191,50918,793 47,5294,34551,874-7,00044,873
Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year 
20092.2-9.3-27.3-6.4-5.51.2 -3.7-22.1-5.6 -8.0
20100.62.2-26.23.4-2.3-0.8 0.7-3.20.4 2.2
20116.8-0.9-14.30.5-5.12.7 3.2-3.22.6 -0.8
2012-2.4-2.6-6.0-0.3-3.20.4 0.2-0.00.2 1.6
2013-7.4-4.09.68.4-0.9-2.0 0.87.81.4 4.6
201417.67.17.75.6-0.34.2 4.98.05.2 6.9
20156.413.78.88.7-2.64.3 7.69.77.8 5.7
2009            
Q13.0-6.6-26.0-6.9-3.21.7 -3.1-29.1-6.3 -8.7
Q27.4-7.8-27.5-5.8-5.31.2 -3.3-24.5-5.2 -8.0
Q3-7.1-14.2-29.2-5.8-5.80.7 -5.1-18.7-6.8 -8.6
Q43.0-9.1-26.6-7.2-7.51.3 -3.2-14.3-4.3 -6.5
2010            
Q1-13.9-0.5-34.21.6-2.2-1.8 -1.4-6.2-1.8 -3.3
Q2-12.4-2.5-27.11.7-2.5-0.5 -0.7-5.6-1.1 -0.9
Q323.03.0-23.65.2-1.7-1.4 2.60.22.4 5.9
Q426.910.6-18.95.2-2.80.5 2.7-2.12.2 7.4
2011            
Q14.9-4.8-8.71.9-3.80.5 0.11.90.3 -0.3
Q25.14.7-13.43.1-2.83.8 5.4-5.24.6 2.9
Q310.1-0.4-17.4-3.4-7.93.6 3.2-8.02.1 -1.7
Q47.6-3.1-17.30.6-5.92.9 3.8-0.83.4 -4.0
2012            
Q19.61.0-17.4-2.5-4.81.8 1.80.21.6 0.4
Q23.9-2.0-10.0-6.8-6.0-1.9 -0.04.50.3 2.8
Q3-11.0-2.9-3.34.5-1.00.9 -0.45.40.1 2.2
Q4-15.0-7.27.13.5-0.71.0 -0.7-10.9-1.4 1.1
2013            
Q1-33.0-6.34.74.2-1.7-2.4 -1.46.3-0.5 4.5
Q2-22.4-4.89.011.6-1.0-1.7 -2.17.6-1.5 -1.6
Q316.9-2.514.18.7-0.1-2.0 4.85.34.9 8.4
Q426.1-1.69.99.1-0.8-1.9 2.113.82.9 7.2
2014            
Q116.41.39.65.92.24.1 3.97.04.1 4.3
Q223.814.715.13.32.23.1 6.315.07.0 10.7
Q310.04.28.07.5-2.65.2 4.20.03.7 3.7
Q420.97.6-0.25.4-3.14.4 5.313.66.0 9.1
2015            
Q12.811.211.19.9-5.44.4 7.410.07.7 8.7
Q2-3.15.76.711.2-4.44.3 6.99.27.1 5.8
Q316.316.77.87.9-1.03.8 6.712.07.2 3.5
Q49.123.39.96.20.34.7 9.56.89.2 5.2
*Chain linked series not additive   
Table 2 Expenditure on Gross National Product at Current Market Prices  
          €million
PeriodPersonal consumption of goods and servicesNet exp. by central and local government on current goods and servicesGross domestic fixed capital formationValue of physical changes in stocksExports of goods and servicesImports of goods and servicesStatistical discrepancyGDP at current market pricesNet factor income from the rest of the worldGNP at current market prices
           
200984,95329,65235,899-1,490158,596-135,674-2,504169,432-28,517140,915
201083,66626,45529,584-569171,332-144,748437166,157-26,425139,732
201184,61726,15529,921780176,112-144,8111,166173,940-32,127141,813
201284,57925,95533,450297187,427-157,399536174,845-31,514143,331
201385,72426,11031,677772191,434-156,765496179,448-27,406152,042
201488,95927,23636,5111,905214,961-180,287-239189,046-26,169162,877
201592,38127,85147,2492,650260,593-215,830-271214,623-33,602181,021
2009          
Q121,3817,7819,749-56839,909-34,409-63943,204-7,16436,040
Q220,7767,2099,4531440,856-34,552-63743,118-7,58935,529
Q320,5607,2077,734-43038,716-31,448-61741,722-7,56234,160
Q422,2367,4568,963-50539,116-35,265-61241,388-6,20235,186
2010          
Q120,4996,7017,369-52740,252-33,09610941,307-7,56733,740
Q220,4226,4908,091-10643,627-36,67711041,958-7,51734,441
Q320,6276,4346,15035344,184-35,55711142,302-6,64935,653
Q422,1176,8297,974-28843,269-39,41810740,590-4,69235,898
2011          
Q120,7776,5087,065-31743,009-35,64427941,676-7,85833,818
Q220,7136,5008,57140344,387-36,68629644,184-8,32035,864
Q320,4936,5876,31959944,089-34,53729443,843-8,10035,743
Q422,6346,5617,9679544,627-37,94429744,236-7,84936,387
2012          
Q120,3656,6108,165-57545,327-38,08012941,941-8,68433,257
Q220,4176,43811,18155047,504-40,78113945,448-7,87937,569
Q320,8926,5196,86729246,537-37,32813543,913-7,87636,037
Q422,9056,3897,2373048,061-41,21013343,544-7,07536,469
2013          
Q120,6426,3847,96338545,352-38,03511842,810-6,94535,865
Q220,6126,5547,44824149,227-39,96812244,237-7,83536,402
Q321,2246,6207,88376548,249-37,52313147,349-6,92140,428
Q423,2476,5538,383-62048,606-41,24112445,052-5,70539,347
2014          
Q121,3436,3928,79848548,285-40,861-5644,386-7,13337,253
Q221,4736,7458,65111254,462-45,052-5946,333-6,95639,377
Q321,8396,8888,98057755,412-44,554-6249,079-7,16241,917
Q424,3047,21210,08173056,802-49,819-6249,249-4,91844,331
2015          
Q122,1877,0049,79489658,605-48,331-6350,091-7,75442,337
Q222,1796,97111,67814866,089-54,180-6752,818-8,50244,316
Q322,8326,90012,39889466,662-54,308-7055,309-9,83845,471
Q425,1836,97613,38071369,237-59,011-7156,406-7,50848,898
Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year
2009-11.2-3.7-22.8 0.4-4.3 -9.7 -12.9 
2010-1.5-10.8-17.6 8.06.7 -1.9 -0.8 
20111.1-1.11.1 2.80.0 4.7 1.5 
2012-0.0-0.811.8 6.48.7 0.5 1.1 
20131.40.6-5.3 2.1-0.4 2.6 6.1 
20143.84.315.3 12.315.0 5.3 7.1 
20153.82.329.4 21.219.7 13.5 11.1 
2009           
Q1-11.03.0-33.1 3.7-4.2 -9.9 -13.6 
Q2-11.0-5.5-17.7 3.0-2.6 -7.9 -11.8 
Q3-12.5-5.7-26.9 -0.6-6.4 -10.7 -13.4 
Q4-10.3-6.4-9.3 -4.3-4.1 -10.0 -12.7 
            
2010           
Q1-4.1-13.9-24.4 0.9-3.8 -4.4 -6.4 
Q2-1.7-10.0-14.4 6.86.1 -2.7 -3.1 
Q30.3-10.7-20.5 14.113.1 1.4 4.4 
Q4-0.5-8.4-11.0 10.611.8 -1.9 2.0 
            
2011           
Q11.4-2.9-4.1 6.87.7 0.9 0.2 
Q21.40.15.9 1.70.0 5.3 4.1 
Q3-0.62.42.7 -0.2-2.9 3.6 0.3 
Q42.3-3.9-0.1 3.1-3.7 9.0 1.4 
            
2012           
Q1-2.01.615.6 5.46.8 0.6 -1.7 
Q2-1.4-1.030.4 7.011.2 2.9 4.8 
Q31.9-1.08.7 5.68.1 0.2 0.8 
Q41.2-2.6-9.2 7.78.6 -1.6 0.2 
            
2013           
Q11.4-3.4-2.5 0.1-0.1 2.1 7.8 
Q21.01.8-33.4 3.6-2.0 -2.7 -3.1 
Q31.61.514.8 3.70.5 7.8 12.2
Q41.52.615.8 1.10.1 3.5 7.9
2014
Q13.40.110.5 6.57.4 3.7 3.9
Q24.22.916.2 10.612.7 4.7 8.2
Q32.94.013.9 14.818.7 3.7 3.7
Q44.610.120.3 16.920.8 9.3 12.7
           
2015
Q14.09.611.3 21.418.3 12.9 13.6
Q23.33.435.0 21.320.3 14.0 12.5
Q34.50.238.1 20.321.9 12.7 8.5
Q43.6-3.332.7 21.918.5 14.5 10.3
           
Table 3 Expenditure on Gross National Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2013)*
         €million
PeriodPersonal consumption of goods and servicesNet exp. by central and local government on current goods and servicesGross domestic fixed capital formationValue of physical changes in stocksExports of goods and servicesImports of goods and servicesGDP at constant market pricesNet factor income from the rest of the worldGNP at constant market prices
200986,60528,92135,835-1,417168,306-149,415171,503-30,563141,031 
201087,26226,87130,268-556179,103-154,710172,187-27,927144,169 
201186,66726,32331,240753182,913-152,385176,643-33,693142,976 
201286,01525,74833,924286186,805-156,758176,910-31,532145,318 
201385,72426,11031,677772191,434-156,765179,448-27,406152,042
201487,44427,30136,2141,599214,584-179,811188,778-26,241162,537
201590,47827,09146,4312,735244,256-209,233203,524-31,657171,867
2009         
Q121,4967,4089,519-55041,735-37,12543,735-7,59136,142 
Q221,1837,2819,2517743,035-37,93943,262-8,08135,251 
Q321,1616,9717,837-46841,333-34,95642,708-8,14734,652 
Q422,7657,2619,227-47642,203-39,39541,798-6,74434,987 
2010         
Q121,4766,7517,382-53242,292-35,83642,939-8,05434,934 
Q221,3556,7988,248-6445,134-39,27842,769-7,86834,940 
Q321,5626,5336,32733545,960-37,78543,742-7,00236,710 
Q422,8696,7898,310-29445,716-41,81142,737-5,00237,585 
2011         
Q121,4866,7197,341-35344,440-37,62543,062-8,22634,843 
Q221,2896,6388,86834546,479-38,99944,742-8,78935,965 
Q321,0246,4706,59660946,126-36,34444,645-8,56236,090 
Q422,8676,4958,43415245,869-39,41844,195-8,11536,079 
2012         
Q120,8606,5578,393-58745,626-38,19443,752-8,79434,981 
Q220,8496,38711,12151847,441-40,75944,886-7,89336,974 
Q321,3086,4676,93328145,948-36,84244,710-7,79936,889 
Q422,9986,3377,4787447,790-40,96443,562-7,04636,474 
2013         
Q120,8066,3847,94745945,455-38,20343,524-6,97736,543
Q220,6916,5547,46727948,965-39,86144,202-7,80336,385
Q321,2416,6207,85273348,190-37,39246,913-6,91739,999
Q422,9856,5538,411-69948,824-41,30944,809-5,70939,115
2014         
Q121,1306,4778,74036048,592-40,80445,323-7,20838,115
Q221,1626,8118,71114154,788-44,95947,294-7,01340,282
Q321,4776,8348,64646755,638-44,40348,670-7,20141,470
Q423,6757,17810,11863155,566-49,64547,490-4,82042,670
2015         
Q121,9646,8829,72690655,384-46,90148,807-7,37041,437
Q221,7956,86211,85112462,163-52,38450,656-8,03042,626
Q322,3046,65911,88693062,455-52,74052,187-9,25642,930
Q424,4156,68812,96977564,254-57,20951,874-7,00044,873
Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year 
2009-5.3-3.6-16.9 -1.1-3.3-5.6 -8.0 
20100.8-7.1-15.5 6.43.50.4 2.2 
2011-0.7-2.03.2 2.1-1.52.6 -0.8 
2012-0.8-2.28.6 2.12.90.2 1.6 
2013-0.31.4-6.6 2.50.01.4 4.6
20142.04.614.3 12.114.75.2 6.9
20153.5-0.828.2 13.816.47.8 5.7
2009         
Q1-7.0-0.2-27.0 -0.3-6.1-6.3 -8.7 
Q2-4.9-2.0-12.2 -0.9-2.4-5.2 -8.0 
Q3-5.8-5.7-20.6 -1.4-4.1-6.8 -8.6 
Q4-3.4-6.2-4.4 -1.6-0.4-4.3 -6.5 
2010         
Q1-0.1-8.9-22.4 1.3-3.5-1.8 -3.3 
Q20.8-6.6-10.8 4.93.5-1.1 -0.9 
Q31.9-6.3-19.3 11.28.12.4 5.9 
Q40.5-6.5-9.9 8.36.12.2 7.4 
2011         
Q10.0-0.5-0.6 5.15.00.3 -0.3 
Q2-0.3-2.47.5 3.0-0.74.6 2.9 
Q3-2.5-1.04.2 0.4-3.82.1 -1.7 
Q4-0.0-4.31.5 0.3-5.73.4 -4.0 
2012         
Q1-2.9-2.414.3 2.71.51.6 0.4 
Q2-2.1-3.825.4 2.14.50.3 2.8 
Q31.3-0.05.1 -0.41.40.1 2.2 
Q40.6-2.4-11.3 4.23.9-1.4 1.1 
2013         
Q1-0.3-2.7-5.3 -0.40.0-0.5 4.5
Q2-0.82.6-32.9 3.2-2.2-1.5 -1.6
Q3-0.32.413.3 4.91.54.9 8.4
Q4-0.13.412.5 2.20.82.9 7.2
2014         
Q11.61.510.0 6.96.84.1 4.3
Q22.33.916.7 11.912.87.0 10.7
Q31.13.210.1 15.518.83.7 3.7
Q43.09.520.3 13.820.26.0 9.1
2015         
Q14.06.311.3 14.014.97.7 8.7
Q23.00.736.0 13.516.57.1 5.8
Q33.8-2.637.5 12.318.87.2 3.5
Q43.1-6.828.2 15.615.29.2 5.2
*Chain linked series not additive  
Table 4 Gross Value Added at Constant Factor Cost by Sector of Origin and Gross National Product at Constant Market Prices
(Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2013) - Seasonally Adjusted      
 €million
PeriodAgric. Forestry and fishingIndustryof which Building and constructionDist. Transport software and commsPublic admin and defenceOther services (including rent)GDP at constant factor costTaxes less subsidiesGDP at constant market pricesNet factor income from the rest of the worldGNP at constant market prices
2009            
Q11,05411,7911,88210,0201,74816,71939,6774,05643,755-7,24336,508 
Q21,08611,3451,74410,0861,74416,68339,0454,11343,187-7,71135,512 
Q392010,7461,62010,0041,73116,62438,4714,03842,425-7,97634,637 
Q490510,3691,4999,8171,71716,44138,1733,95642,128-7,66134,370 
2010            
Q194311,5751,25710,2181,71116,48439,1173,85442,955-7,76935,193 
Q298011,0281,26510,3091,70016,56938,8593,86642,725-7,38135,379 
Q31,08111,1371,23710,4641,70116,38239,3154,01243,324-6,86436,509 
Q41,08211,5551,20610,2951,66816,51039,1973,92543,139-5,91237,024 
2011            
Q11,02811,2791,15910,4991,64516,51139,7463,80843,561-7,76235,848 
Q21,07511,1661,09610,6461,65517,31040,5303,76444,290-8,49035,721 
Q31,13311,1301,02010,0431,56516,95040,4033,67844,065-8,38935,773 
Q41,09911,26299310,3201,56916,97440,7073,94944,686-9,06235,592 
2012            
Q11,19611,22897110,2631,56816,89040,3113,84744,119-8,48035,623 
Q21,14711,0229769,9881,55416,93340,8373,81344,642-7,44537,148 
Q396510,82398510,4481,54917,06940,1063,89644,046-7,58236,527 
Q487710,5341,06610,6511,55817,13940,4013,62444,048-8,01935,985 
2013            
Q185610,4681,02310,7251,54216,51639,7914,08743,892-6,74937,073 
Q291810,4591,05411,2081,53916,63840,1273,99644,051-7,32536,709 
Q31,08110,5851,12111,2961,54716,70541,9024,15946,122-6,57139,631 
Q41,04610,4331,18011,5981,54616,82341,2354,11245,338-6,76238,572 
2014            
Q11,05210,8741,11711,4521,57617,10241,8264,25546,099-6,84339,316 
Q21,17711,6161,21211,5551,57417,27342,2864,62446,789-6,71239,964 
Q31,15411,0901,20812,1071,50817,55643,5494,20847,779-6,72541,151 
Q41,20911,2451,18612,2191,49917,57643,4304,64548,087-5,97542,028 
2015            
Q11,13711,9121,24612,5761,49117,92044,6194,78249,375-7,16342,172 
Q21,16512,4241,28312,8901,50317,95845,6034,86750,422-7,58942,864 
Q31,30613,0121,30013,0221,49318,21046,3704,79951,167-8,67142,657 
Q41,29313,8391,31212,9901,50418,41247,5774,91652,573-8,25944,124 
Percentage change on previous quarter 
2009           
Q113.14.7-8.6-5.4-5.82.90.9-11.4-0.2 -0.4
Q23.0-3.8-7.30.7-0.2-0.2-1.61.4-1.3 -2.7
Q3-15.3-5.3-7.1-0.8-0.7-0.4-1.5-1.8-1.8 -2.5
Q4-1.6-3.5-7.4-1.9-0.8-1.1-0.8-2.0-0.7 -0.8
2010           
Q14.111.6-16.14.1-0.30.32.5-2.62.0 2.4
Q24.0-4.70.60.9-0.70.5-0.70.3-0.5 0.5
Q310.21.0-2.21.50.1-1.11.23.81.4 3.2
Q40.13.8-2.5-1.6-1.90.8-0.3-2.2-0.4 1.4
2011           
Q1-5.0-2.4-3.92.0-1.40.01.4-3.01.0 -3.2
Q24.5-1.0-5.41.40.64.82.0-1.21.7 -0.4
Q35.4-0.3-6.9-5.7-5.4-2.1-0.3-2.3-0.5 0.1
Q4-3.01.2-2.72.80.30.10.87.41.4 -0.5
2012           
Q18.8-0.3-2.2-0.5-0.1-0.5-1.0-2.6-1.3 0.1
Q2-4.1-1.80.5-2.7-0.90.31.3-0.91.2 4.3
Q3-15.9-1.80.94.6-0.30.8-1.82.2-1.3 -1.7
Q4-9.1-2.78.31.90.60.40.7-7.00.0 -1.5
2013           
Q1-2.3-0.6-4.00.7-1.0-3.6-1.512.8-0.4 3.0
Q27.2-0.13.04.5-0.20.70.8-2.20.4 -1.0
Q317.71.26.30.80.60.44.44.14.7 8.0
Q4-3.2-1.45.22.7-0.10.7-1.6-1.1-1.7 -2.7
2014          
Q10.64.2-5.3-1.31.91.71.43.51.7 1.9
Q211.96.88.50.9-0.11.01.18.71.5 1.6
Q3-2.0-4.5-0.34.8-4.21.63.0-9.02.1 3.0
Q44.81.4-1.80.9-0.60.1-0.310.40.6 2.1
2015           
Q1-6.05.95.02.9-0.52.02.73.02.7 0.3
Q22.54.33.02.50.80.22.21.82.1 1.6
Q312.14.71.31.0-0.71.41.7-1.41.5 -0.5
Q4-1.16.41.0-0.20.71.12.62.42.7 3.4
            
Table 5 Expenditure on Gross National Product at Current Market Prices - Seasonally Adjusted  
         €million
PeriodPersonal consumption of goods and servicesNet exp. by central and local government on current goods and servicesGross domestic fixed capital formationValue of physical changes in stocksExports of goods and servicesImports of goods and servicesGDP at current market pricesNet factor income from the rest of the wrorldGNP at current market prices
2009         
Q121,6047,8029,536-40240,561-35,02843,649-6,81536,841
Q221,2707,3339,036-26440,063-33,94842,900-7,24735,701
Q321,0177,2498,555-44239,015-33,04541,646-7,42234,319
Q421,0107,2778,671-40439,029-33,57841,210-7,06934,031
2010         
Q120,7466,7277,286-34740,937-33,90541,839-7,30334,434
Q220,9816,5917,674-29142,695-35,92041,725-7,02434,883
Q321,0666,4506,86019744,359-37,18942,044-6,53735,546
Q420,8076,6907,656-13643,349-37,70140,502-5,57034,796
2011         
Q121,2196,5296,984-11043,724-36,47642,633-7,33735,331
Q221,2076,5968,19726443,448-35,89543,656-8,07835,684
Q320,9056,5856,99636644,106-36,18443,327-7,94935,378
Q421,2136,4497,64126344,844-36,23544,274-8,78335,361
2012         
Q120,7936,6648,106-47046,294-39,10442,787-8,36834,299
Q221,0146,49610,78656046,290-39,80045,148-7,41837,979
Q321,2986,5007,4564046,469-38,92443,231-7,67435,566
Q421,3916,3056,97616448,340-39,57443,604-8,06335,438
2013         
Q121,0976,4527,91439746,532-39,17343,657-6,73136,790
Q221,2876,5847,30038347,796-38,86644,111-7,30837,080
Q321,6186,5978,31752948,139-39,05546,488-6,58239,880
Q421,6576,4808,152-54148,878-39,66045,088-6,80338,185
2014         
Q121,9466,4508,73646949,631-41,97645,561-6,69638,943
Q222,1096,7788,62931152,838-44,00146,039-6,67039,379
Q322,2326,8689,24136355,276-46,01148,094-6,68841,436
Q422,6097,1329,85575457,094-48,28849,260-6,14242,925
2015         
Q122,7507,0879,81179760,500-49,58151,192-7,52143,613
Q222,9396,98311,70145363,909-53,02252,816-8,00944,982
Q323,2356,89412,58070366,458-55,71754,130-9,25345,035
Q423,4156,88313,07668969,612-57,48856,418-8,85247,262
Percentage change on previous quarter      
2009         
Q1-8.10.5-1.7 -0.0-0.5-4.4 -5.3
Q2-1.5-6.0-5.2 -1.2-3.1-1.7 -3.1
Q3-1.2-1.2-5.3 -2.6-2.7-2.9 -3.9
Q4-0.00.41.4 0.01.6-1.0 -0.8
2010         
Q1-1.3-7.6-16.0 4.91.01.5 1.2
Q21.1-2.05.3 4.35.9-0.3 1.3
Q30.4-2.1-10.6 3.93.50.8 1.9
Q4-1.23.711.6 -2.31.4-3.7 -2.1
2011         
Q12.0-2.4-8.8 0.9-3.25.3 1.5
Q2-0.11.017.4 -0.6-1.62.4 1.0
Q3-1.4-0.2-14.7 1.50.8-0.8 -0.9
Q41.5-2.19.2 1.70.12.2 -0.0
2012         
Q1-2.03.36.1 3.27.9-3.4 -3.0
Q21.1-2.533.1 -0.01.85.5 10.7
Q31.30.1-30.9 0.4-2.2-4.2 -6.4
Q40.4-3.0-6.4 4.01.70.9 -0.4
2013         
Q1-1.42.313.5 -3.7-1.00.1 3.8
Q20.92.0-7.8 2.7-0.81.0 0.8
Q31.60.213.9 0.70.55.4 7.5
Q40.2-1.8-2.0 1.51.5-3.0 -4.3
2014        
Q11.3-0.57.2 1.55.81.0 2.0
Q20.75.1-1.2 6.54.81.1 1.1
Q30.61.37.1 4.64.64.5 5.2
Q41.73.86.7 3.34.92.4 3.6
2015         
Q10.6-0.6-0.5 6.02.73.9 1.6
Q20.8-1.519.3 5.66.93.2 3.1
Q31.3-1.37.5 4.05.12.5 0.1
Q40.8-0.23.9 4.73.24.2 4.9
          
Table 6 Expenditure on Gross National Product at Constant Market Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2013) - Seasonally Adjusted
         €million
PeriodPersonal consumption of goods and servicesNet exp. By central and local government on current goods and servicesGross domestic fixed capital formationValue of physical changes in stocksExports of goods and servicesImports of goods and servicesGDP at constant market prices Net factor income from the rest of the worldGNP at constant market prices
2009        
Q121,6567,4719,382-38142,641-37,77243,755-7,24336,508
Q221,6607,3108,910-30442,211-37,26443,187-7,71135,512
Q321,5777,0728,706-40541,500-36,62742,425-7,97634,637
Q421,6517,0978,777-35241,974-37,68642,128-7,66134,370
2010         
Q121,6636,8077,361-37343,229-36,68142,955-7,76935,193
Q221,9046,7867,859-30044,280-38,43342,725-7,38135,379
Q321,9626,6187,07922245,968-39,47143,324-6,86436,509
Q421,6606,6907,870-11645,617-40,09843,139-5,91237,024
2011         
Q121,8576,7197,280-13945,644-38,49043,561-7,76235,848
Q221,7686,6578,53413945,397-38,11944,290-8,49035,721
Q321,4056,5117,34041145,945-38,05144,065-8,38935,773
Q421,5736,4557,99634345,888-37,69644,686-9,06235,592
2012         
Q121,2156,5688,383-50346,957-39,23444,119-8,48035,623
Q221,4416,38610,71049646,263-39,73944,642-7,44537,148
Q321,6876,4737,5936245,660-38,48344,046-7,58236,527
Q421,6166,3177,13922347,862-39,29344,048-8,01935,985
2013         
Q121,1736,4237,95044746,986-39,33543,892-6,74937,073
Q221,3586,5317,25939947,630-38,79144,051-7,32536,709
Q321,6156,6228,39352747,855-38,95946,122-6,57139,631
Q421,5416,5178,117-60648,883-39,64345,338-6,76238,572
2014         
Q121,6176,5228,67834950,473-41,91346,099-6,84339,316
Q221,7646,7948,62729553,147-44,00846,789-6,71239,964
Q321,8526,8619,03627755,312-45,86647,779-6,72541,151
Q422,1897,1039,83766655,590-47,97948,087-5,97542,028
2015         
Q122,3886,9699,76179857,325-48,15649,375-7,16342,172
Q222,4906,81911,71440660,519-51,38450,422-7,58942,864
Q322,6816,69912,27275962,115-54,13751,167-8,67142,657
Q422,9146,60412,62776164,254-55,50452,573-8,25944,124
Percentage change on previous quarter       
2009         
Q1-3.9-0.91.1 0.4-0.4-0.2 -0.4
Q20.0-2.2-5.0 -1.0-1.3-1.3 -2.7
Q3-0.4-3.3-2.3 -1.7-1.7-1.8 -2.5
Q40.30.30.8 1.12.9-0.7 -0.8
2010         
Q10.1-4.1-16.1 3.0-2.72.0 2.4
Q21.1-0.36.8 2.44.8-0.5 0.5
Q30.3-2.5-9.9 3.82.71.4 3.2
Q4-1.41.111.2 -0.81.6-0.4 1.4
2011         
Q10.90.4-7.5 0.1-4.01.0 -3.2
Q2-0.4-0.917.2 -0.5-1.01.7 -0.4
Q3-1.7-2.2-14.0 1.2-0.2-0.5 0.1
Q40.8-0.98.9 -0.1-0.91.4 -0.5
2012         
Q1-1.71.84.8 2.34.1-1.3 0.1
Q21.1-2.827.8 -1.51.31.2 4.3
Q31.11.4-29.1 -1.3-3.2-1.3 -1.7
Q4-0.3-2.4-6.0 4.82.10.0 -1.5
2013         
Q1-2.01.711.4 -1.80.1-0.4 3.0
Q20.91.7-8.7 1.4-1.40.4 -1.0
Q31.21.415.6 0.50.44.7 8.0
Q4-0.3-1.6-3.3 2.11.8-1.7 -2.7
2014        
Q10.40.16.9 3.35.71.7 1.9
Q20.74.2-0.6 5.35.01.5 1.6
Q30.41.04.7 4.14.22.1 3.0
Q41.53.58.9 0.54.60.6 2.1
2015         
Q10.9-1.9-0.8 3.10.42.7 0.3
Q20.5-2.220.0 5.66.72.1 1.6
Q30.9-1.84.8 2.65.41.5 -0.5
Q41.0-1.42.9 3.42.52.7 3.4
          
Annex 1a - Trade Summary: Quarterly Breakdown of trade into goods/services at current and constant prices
   Trade at Current Prices   Trade at Constant Prices€ million
          Exports           Imports           Exports           Imports  
             
 TotalGoods Services TotalGoods Services TotalGoods Services TotalGoods Services
2009            
Q139,90925,33014,57934,40915,63918,77041,73525,69416,04137,12517,16219,963
Q240,85625,26515,59134,55215,12519,42743,03525,92717,10837,93917,26820,671
Q338,71623,42015,29631,44813,63717,81141,33324,43616,89734,95615,82519,130
Q439,11623,25915,85735,26514,12221,14342,20324,60017,60339,39516,55022,845
 158,59697,27361,323135,67458,52377,151168,306100,65767,650149,41566,80582,609
2010            
Q140,25224,70215,55033,09614,46718,62942,29225,44716,84635,83616,15519,681
Q243,62726,60617,02136,67716,05120,62645,13426,78518,34939,27817,66121,618
Q344,18427,08317,10135,55715,09820,45945,96027,52318,43837,78516,27721,508
Q443,26924,86418,40539,41816,35123,06745,71625,94219,77441,81117,42424,387
 171,332103,25568,077144,74861,96782,781179,103105,69673,407154,71067,51687,194
2011            
Q143,00925,42317,58635,64414,79920,84544,44026,12518,31537,62516,23421,391
Q244,38725,11419,27336,68615,53821,14846,47926,11120,36838,99917,35821,640
Q344,08925,44318,64634,53713,89620,64146,12626,35719,76936,34415,16721,177
Q444,62724,59820,02937,94415,08822,85645,86924,80221,06739,41816,20023,218
 176,112100,57875,534144,81159,32185,490182,913103,39479,519152,38564,95987,426
2012            
Q145,32725,40519,92238,08016,29621,78445,62625,31620,31038,19416,10822,086
Q247,50425,63121,87340,78116,18424,59747,44125,39522,04640,75916,02324,736
Q346,53725,26321,27437,32815,00722,32145,94824,58521,36336,84214,54122,302
Q448,06125,59922,46241,21016,77324,43747,79025,21622,57440,96416,50424,459
 187,427101,89685,531157,39964,26093,139186,805100,51386,292156,75863,17693,582
2013            
Q145,35224,13721,21538,03516,28421,75145,45524,13021,32538,20316,32721,876 
Q249,22725,81123,41639,96816,02123,94748,96525,58723,37839,86115,99123,870
Q348,24925,11623,13337,52315,13822,38548,19025,10723,08337,39215,05422,337
Q448,60623,66724,93941,24116,22825,01348,82423,90624,91841,30916,29925,010
 191,43498,73192,703156,76563,66993,096191,43498,73192,703156,76563,67193,094
2014            
Q148,28525,86822,41740,86116,74924,11248,59226,48822,10340,80416,60824,197
Q254,46228,53625,92645,05217,28727,76554,78829,25525,53344,95917,25127,707
Q355,41229,05926,35344,55417,62726,92755,63829,34626,29244,40317,56426,839
Q456,80229,74827,05449,81919,24730,57255,56629,50726,05949,64519,43530,210
 214,961113,211101,750180,28770,911109,376214,584114,59799,988179,81170,858108,953
2015            
Q158,60532,78325,82248,33118,63329,69855,38430,86824,51646,90117,91328,987
Q266,08936,48629,60354,18019,38234,79862,16333,94528,21852,38418,64033,744
Q366,66236,43730,22554,30818,84935,45962,45534,11528,34152,74018,42334,317
Q469,23738,06331,17459,01122,33936,67264,25435,35228,90257,20921,84935,361
 260,593143,769116,824215,83079,203136,627244,256134,280109,976209,23376,824132,409
% growth rate year on year        
2009            
Q13.77.4-2.0-4.2-9.50.7-0.33.0-5.3-6.1-9.4-3.1
Q23.05.0-0.0-2.6-6.90.9-0.9-0.2-2.1-2.4-3.4-1.6
Q3-0.6-0.2-1.1-6.4-6.6-6.2-1.4-1.0-2.0-4.1-0.3-7.1
Q4-4.3-7.10.1-4.1-8.4-1.0-1.6-2.2-0.6-0.40.5-1.0
2010            
Q10.9-2.56.7-3.8-7.5-0.81.3-1.05.0-3.5-5.9-1.4
Q26.85.39.26.16.16.24.93.37.33.52.34.6
Q314.115.611.813.110.714.911.212.69.18.12.912.4
Q410.66.916.111.815.89.18.35.512.36.15.36.7
2011            
Q16.82.913.17.72.311.95.12.78.75.00.58.7
Q21.7-5.613.20.0-3.22.53.0-2.511.0-0.7-1.70.1
Q3-0.2-6.19.0-2.9-8.00.90.4-4.27.2-3.8-6.8-1.5
Q43.1-1.18.8-3.7-7.7-0.90.3-4.46.5-5.7-7.0-4.8
2012            
Q15.4-0.113.36.810.14.52.7-3.110.91.5-0.83.2
Q27.02.113.511.24.216.32.1-2.78.24.5-7.714.3
Q35.6-0.714.18.18.08.1-0.4-6.78.11.4-4.15.3
Q47.74.112.18.611.26.94.21.77.23.91.95.3
2013            
Q10.1-5.06.5-0.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-4.75.00.01.4-0.9
Q23.60.77.1-2.0-1.0-2.63.20.86.0-2.2-0.2-3.5
Q33.7-0.68.70.50.90.34.92.18.11.53.50.2
Q41.1-7.511.00.1-3.32.42.2-5.210.40.8-1.22.3
2014
Q16.57.25.77.42.910.96.99.83.66.81.710.6
Q210.610.610.712.77.915.911.914.39.212.87.916.1
Q314.815.713.918.716.420.315.516.913.918.816.720.2
Q416.925.78.520.818.622.213.823.44.620.219.220.8
2015            
Q121.426.715.218.311.223.214.016.510.914.97.919.8
Q221.327.914.220.312.125.313.516.010.516.58.021.8
Q320.325.414.721.96.931.712.316.27.818.84.927.9
Q421.928.015.218.516.120.015.619.810.915.212.417.0
             
Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Annex 1 - Trade Summary: Quarterly Breakdown of trade into goods/services at SA current and SA constant prices
  Trade at Current Prices  Trade at Constant Prices € million
         Exports         Imports          Exports          Imports
             
 TotalGoods Services TotalGoods Services TotalGoods Services TotalGoods Services
2009            
Q140,56125,40715,14335,02815,30819,57442,64125,85516,69137,77216,86620,820
Q240,06324,78915,21533,94814,77319,17542,21125,40516,76837,26416,83020,497
Q339,01523,56815,36933,04514,54818,37141,50024,50516,95836,62716,79719,735
Q439,02923,58115,55933,57813,89119,98941,97424,96517,16837,68616,28521,482
 158,66897,34561,287135,60058,52177,109168,326100,73067,586149,34966,77982,533
             
2010            
Q140,93724,77516,14833,90514,18419,41643,22925,57917,54136,68115,93320,551
Q242,69526,03216,59635,92015,66720,27944,28026,21118,01438,43317,20221,352
Q344,35927,08417,27437,18915,98621,18545,96827,46918,54039,47117,22322,239
Q443,34925,42018,01037,70116,11221,84445,61726,49419,22840,09817,11722,985
 171,341103,31168,028144,71561,94982,723179,094105,75273,323154,68467,47487,127
             
2011            
Q143,72425,29818,39336,47614,44321,85345,64426,14319,36638,49015,96622,421
Q243,44824,71618,65335,89515,28220,55545,39725,62619,72438,11917,03921,175
Q344,10625,30818,85536,18414,76621,43845,94526,19619,87838,05116,09321,944
Q444,84425,32019,57236,23514,77921,70045,88825,46120,46637,69615,80221,963
 176,121100,64275,473144,79059,27085,545182,874103,42679,434152,35664,89987,502
             
2012            
Q146,29425,41320,80539,10416,03822,83246,95725,41821,40639,23415,91523,174
Q246,29025,02621,25739,80015,92823,82446,26324,78921,46339,73915,75424,069
Q346,46925,09821,41738,92415,86023,16545,66024,40221,41838,48315,45523,074
Q448,34026,41221,94239,57416,38223,31847,86225,95221,96939,29315,97823,301
 187,393101,95085,421157,40164,20893,138186,741100,56286,256156,74963,10293,619
             
2013            
Q146,53224,22922,30839,17316,06922,81046,98624,30722,50039,33516,18322,961
Q247,79625,06922,76638,86615,82823,10947,63024,83922,78538,79115,81423,104
Q348,13925,01023,11439,05515,98023,19447,85524,96923,03538,95915,96423,072
Q448,87824,38124,40539,66015,72523,95448,88324,59124,31539,64315,63623,954
 191,34598,68892,593156,75463,60293,066191,35598,70792,636156,72863,59793,090
             
2014            
Q149,63125,84823,84341,97616,49325,43650,47326,66023,67241,91316,42125,478 
Q252,83827,81525,13744,00117,25726,61853,14728,38324,58244,00817,25526,663 
Q355,27629,03526,14346,01118,44327,82455,31229,26326,11045,86618,45527,658 
Q457,09430,56626,53848,28818,66929,36755,59030,31725,50247,97918,66329,057 
 214,839113,264101,661180,27570,862109,245214,523114,62399,865179,76570,794108,856 
              
2015             
Q160,50032,97027,37649,58118,47331,28757,32531,21026,13848,15617,82330,511 
Q263,90935,32828,82453,02219,34333,41660,51932,75827,35251,38418,65232,449 
Q366,45836,49829,89555,71719,64936,54862,11534,09028,02954,13719,30635,301 
Q469,61239,03630,68657,48821,69635,29764,25436,27628,34755,50420,99734,082 
 260,479143,830116,782215,80979,161136,548244,214134,334109,867209,18176,778132,342 
% growth rate quarter on quarter        
2009            
Q1-0.01.1-3.1-0.50.9-3.30.42.1-3.9-0.44.0-4.3
Q2-1.2-2.40.5-3.1-3.5-2.0-1.0-1.70.5-1.3-0.2-1.6
Q3-2.6-4.91.0-2.7-1.5-4.2-1.7-3.51.1-1.7-0.2-3.7
Q40.00.11.21.6-4.58.81.11.91.22.9-3.08.9
             
2010            
Q14.95.13.81.02.1-2.93.02.52.2-2.7-2.2-4.3
Q24.35.12.85.910.54.42.42.52.74.88.03.9
Q33.94.04.13.52.04.53.84.82.92.70.14.2 
Q4-2.3-6.14.31.40.83.1-0.8-3.53.71.6-0.63.4 
              
2011             
Q10.9-0.52.1-3.2-10.40.00.1-1.30.7-4.0-6.7-2.5
Q2-0.6-2.31.4-1.65.8-5.9-0.5-2.01.8-1.06.7-5.6
Q31.52.41.10.8-3.44.31.22.20.8-0.2-5.53.6
Q41.70.03.80.10.11.2-0.1-2.83.0-0.9-1.80.1
             
2012            
Q13.20.46.37.98.55.22.3-0.24.64.10.75.5
Q2-0.0-1.52.21.8-0.74.3-1.5-2.50.31.3-1.03.9
Q30.40.30.8-2.2-0.4-2.8-1.3-1.6-0.2-3.2-1.9-4.1
Q44.05.22.51.73.30.74.86.32.62.13.41.0
             
2013            
Q1-3.7-8.31.7-1.0-1.9-2.2-1.8-6.32.40.11.3-1.5
Q22.73.52.1-0.8-1.51.31.42.21.3-1.4-2.30.6
Q30.7-0.21.50.51.00.40.50.51.10.40.9-0.1
Q41.5-2.55.61.5-1.63.32.1-1.55.61.8-2.13.8
            
2014            
Q11.56.0-2.35.84.96.23.38.4-2.65.75.06.4
Q26.57.65.44.84.64.65.36.53.85.05.14.6
Q34.64.44.04.66.94.54.13.16.24.27.03.7
Q43.35.31.54.91.25.50.53.6-2.34.61.15.1
             
2015            
Q16.07.93.22.7-1.06.53.12.92.50.4-4.55.0
Q25.67.25.36.94.76.85.65.04.66.74.66.4
Q34.03.33.75.11.69.42.64.12.55.43.58.8
Q44.77.02.63.210.4-3.43.46.41.12.58.8-3.5
             
Annex 2 Transportable Goods Industries & Utilities Sector and Building & Construction Sector at Constant Factor Cost -
(Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2013) Non-Seasonally Adjusted and Seasonally Adjusted
        
 NON-SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
        
  of whichof which  of whichof which
PeriodIndustryTransportable Goods Industries and Utilities Building and Construct. Industry Transportable Goods Industries and UtilitiesBuilding and construct.
2009       
Q112,20810,6731,834 11,79110,2681,882
Q212,03410,7041,667 11,3459,8871,744
Q310,2538,7901,674 10,7469,3941,620
Q49,7618,4051,566 10,3699,0021,499
2010       
Q112,14510,9801,20711,57510,3881,257
Q211,72710,5711,21611,0289,8111,265
Q310,5599,4051,28011,13710,0381,237
Q410,7929,6351,27011,55510,4431,206
2011       
Q111,56410,4751,101 11,27910,1631,159
Q212,27911,1881,053 11,16610,0211,096
Q310,5169,4941,057 11,13010,1501,020
Q410,4559,4401,050 11,26210,328993
2012       
Q111,68510,714910 11,22810,183971
Q212,03011,024948 11,0229,989976
Q310,2129,2191,022 10,8239,892985
Q49,7028,6601,125 10,5349,5151,066
2013       
Q110,9449,988952 10,4689,4431,023
Q211,45310,4181,032 10,4599,4311,054
Q39,9598,7951,166 10,5859,4731,121
Q49,5488,3151,236 10,4339,1701,180
2014       
Q111,08810,0441,044 10,8749,7631,117
Q213,13811,9501,188 11,61610,4641,212
Q310,3809,1201,259 11,0909,8641,208
Q410,2739,0391,234 11,2459,9941,186
2015       
Q112,33511,1761,160 11,91210,6711,246
Q213,89012,6221,268 12,42411,2041,283
Q312,11610,7581,358 13,01211,6781,300
Q412,67011,3131,357 13,83912,5211,312
Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year Percentage change on previous quarter
2009       
Q1-6.6-0.8-26.0 4.712.5-8.6
Q2-7.8-3.2-27.5 -3.8-3.7-7.3
Q3-14.2-9.0-29.2 -5.3-5.0-7.1
Q4-9.1-3.0-26.6 -3.5-4.2-7.4
2010       
Q1-0.52.9-34.2 11.615.4-16.1
Q2-2.5-1.2-27.1 -4.7-5.60.6
Q33.07.0-23.6 1.02.3-2.2
Q410.614.6-18.9 3.84.0-2.5
2011       
Q1-4.8-4.6-8.7 -2.4-2.7-3.9
Q24.75.8-13.4 -1.0-1.4-5.4
Q3-0.41.0-17.4 -0.31.3-6.9
Q4-3.1-2.0-17.3 1.21.7-2.7
2012       
Q11.02.3-17.4 -0.3-1.4-2.2
Q2-2.0-1.5-10.0 -1.8-1.90.5
Q3-2.9-2.9-3.3 -1.8-1.00.9
Q4-7.2-8.37.1 -2.7-3.88.3
2013       
Q1-6.3-6.84.7 -0.6-0.8-4.0
Q2-4.8-5.59.0 -0.1-0.13.0
Q3-2.5-4.614.1 1.20.46.3
Q4-1.6-4.09.9 -1.4-3.25.2
2014
Q11.30.69.6 4.26.5-5.3
Q214.714.715.1 6.87.28.5
Q34.23.78.0 -4.5-5.7-0.3
Q47.68.7-0.2 1.41.3-1.8
2015   
Q111.211.311.1 5.96.85.0
Q25.75.66.7 4.35.03.0
Q316.718.07.8 4.74.21.3
Q423.325.29.9 6.47.21.0
        
Annex 3A Total Domestic Demand at Current Market Prices & Constant Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2013) -Non Seasonally Adjusted
           € million
              
 CURRENT MARKET PRICES CONSTANT MARKET PRICES
              
PeriodPersonal consumption of goods and servicesNet exp. by central and local government on current goods and servicesGross domestic fixed capital formationFinal Domestic DemandValue of physical changes in stocksTotal Domestic Demand Personal consumption of goods and servicesNet exp. by central and local government on current goods and servicesGross domestic fixed capital formationFinal Domestic DemandValue of physical changes in stocksTotal Domestic Demand
200984,95329,65235,899150,504-1,490149,014 86,60528,92135,835151,523-1,417150,012
201083,66626,45529,584139,705-569139,136 87,26226,87130,268144,441-556143,872
201184,61726,15529,921140,693780141,473 86,66726,32331,240144,275753145,073
201284,57925,95533,450143,984297144,281 86,01525,74833,924145,674286145,965
201385,72426,11031,677143,511772144,283 85,72426,11031,677143,511772144,283
201488,95927,23636,511152,7061,905154,611 87,44427,30136,214150,9591,599152,558
201592,38127,85147,249167,4812,650170,131 90,47827,09146,431164,0012,735166,736
2009             
Q121,3817,7819,74938,911-56838,342 21,4967,4089,51938,654-55038,089
Q220,7767,2099,45337,4371437,451 21,1837,2819,25137,5207737,553
Q320,5607,2077,73435,501-43035,071 21,1616,9717,83736,041-46835,556
Q422,2367,4568,96338,655-50538,149 22,7657,2619,22739,309-47638,814
 84,95329,65235,899150,504-1,490149,014 86,60528,92135,835151,523-1,417150,012
2010             
Q120,4996,7017,36934,570-52734,042 21,4766,7517,38235,680-53235,142
Q220,4226,4908,09135,004-10634,897 21,3556,7988,24836,214-6436,147
Q320,6276,4346,15033,21135333,564 21,5626,5336,32734,42233534,757
Q422,1176,8297,97436,920-28836,632 22,8696,7898,31038,126-29437,827
 83,66626,45529,584139,705-569139,136 87,26226,87130,268144,441-556143,872
2011             
Q120,7776,5087,06534,349-31734,032 21,4866,7197,34135,385-35335,024
Q220,7136,5008,57135,78440336,187 21,2896,6388,86836,72434537,085
Q320,4936,5876,31933,39959933,998 21,0246,4706,59634,25560934,889
Q422,6346,5617,96737,1629537,257 22,8676,4958,43437,91215238,074
 84,61726,15529,921140,693780141,473 86,66726,32331,240144,275753145,073
2012             
Q120,3656,6108,16535,140-57534,565 20,8606,5578,39335,810-58735,208
Q220,4176,43811,18138,03655038,586 20,8496,38711,12138,30451838,835
Q320,8926,5196,86734,27829234,570 21,3086,4676,93334,73228135,019
Q422,9056,3897,23736,5303036,560 22,9986,3377,47836,8287436,903
 84,57925,95533,450143,984297144,281 86,01525,74833,924145,674286145,965
2013             
Q120,6426,3847,96334,98938535,374 20,8066,3847,94735,08045935,542
Q220,6126,5547,44834,61424134,855 20,6916,5547,46734,48027934,760
Q321,2246,6207,88335,72776536,492 21,2416,6207,85235,84573336,584
Q423,2476,5538,38338,182-62037,562 22,9856,5538,41138,107-69937,397
 85,72426,11031,677143,511772144,283 85,72426,11031,677143,511772144,283
2014             
Q121,3436,3928,79836,53348537,018 21,1306,4778,74036,34636036,706
Q221,4736,7458,65136,86911236,981 21,1626,8118,71136,68514136,826
Q321,8396,8888,98037,70757738,284 21,4776,8348,64636,95746737,424
Q424,3047,21210,08141,59873042,328 23,6757,17810,11840,97063141,602
 88,95927,23636,511152,7061,905154,611 87,44427,30136,214150,9591,599152,558
2015             
Q122,1877,0049,79438,98489639,880 21,9646,8829,72638,57390639,478
Q222,1796,97111,67840,82814840,97621,7956,86211,85140,50712440,631
Q322,8326,90012,39842,13089443,02522,3046,65911,88640,84893041,779
Q425,1836,97613,38045,53871346,25124,4156,68812,96944,07277544,847
 92,38127,85147,249167,4812,650170,13190,47827,09146,431164,0012,735166,736
Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year    Percentage change on corresponding period of previous year  
2009             
Q1-11.03.0-33.1-15.7 -16.2 -7.0-0.2-27.0-11.8 -12.2
Q2-11.0-5.5-17.7-11.8 -12.9 -4.9-2.0-12.2-7.0 -7.9
Q3-12.5-5.7-26.9-14.9 -15.9 -5.8-5.7-20.6-9.4 -10.6
Q4-10.3-6.4-9.3-9.4 -9.6 -3.4-6.2-4.4-3.9 -4.0
2010             
Q1-4.1-13.9-24.4-11.2 -11.2 -0.1-8.9-22.4-7.7 -7.7
Q2-1.7-10.0-14.4-6.5 -6.8 0.8-6.6-10.8-3.5 -3.7
Q30.3-10.7-20.5-6.4 -4.3 1.9-6.3-19.3-4.5 -2.2
Q4-0.5-8.4-11.0-4.5 -4.0 0.5-6.5-9.9-3.0 -2.5
2011             
Q11.4-2.9-4.1-0.6 -0.0 0.0-0.5-0.6-0.8 -0.3
Q21.40.15.92.2 3.7 -0.3-2.47.51.4 2.6
Q3-0.62.42.70.6 1.3 -2.5-1.04.2-0.5 0.4
Q42.3-3.9-0.10.7 1.7 -0.0-4.31.5-0.6 0.7
2012             
Q1-2.01.615.62.3 1.6 -2.9-2.414.31.2 0.5
Q2-1.4-1.030.46.3 6.6 -2.1-3.825.44.3 4.7
Q31.9-1.08.72.6 1.7 1.3-0.05.11.4 0.4
Q41.2-2.6-9.2-1.7 -1.9 0.6-2.4-11.3-2.9 -3.1
2013             
Q11.4-3.4-2.5-0.4 2.3 -0.3-2.7-5.3-2.0 0.9
Q21.01.8-33.4-9.0 -9.7 -0.82.6-32.9-10.0 -10.5
Q31.61.514.84.2 5.6 -0.32.413.33.2 4.5
Q41.52.615.84.5 2.7 -0.13.412.53.5 1.3
2014
Q13.40.110.54.4 4.6 1.61.510.03.6 3.3
Q24.22.916.26.5 6.1 2.33.916.76.4 5.9
Q32.94.013.95.5 4.9 1.13.210.13.1 2.3
Q44.610.120.38.9 12.7 3.09.520.37.5 11.2
2015             
Q14.09.611.36.7 7.7 4.06.311.36.1 7.6
Q23.33.435.010.7 10.8 3.00.736.010.4 10.3
Q34.50.238.111.7 12.4 3.8-2.637.510.5 11.6
Q43.6-3.332.79.5 9.3 3.1-6.828.27.6 7.8
*Chain linked series not additive    
Annex 3B Total Domestic Demand at Current Market Prices & Constant Prices (Chain linked annually and referenced to year 2013) -Seasonally Adjusted   
            € million
 CURRENT MARKET PRICES CONSTANT MARKET PRICES
              
PeriodPersonal comsumption of goods and servicesNet exp. by central and local government on current goods and servicesGross domestic fixed capital formationFinal Domestic DemandValue of physical changes in stockTotal Domestic Demand Personal Personal comsumption of goods and servicesNet exp. by central and local government on current goods and servicesGross domestic fixed capital formationFinal Domestic DemandValue of physical changes in stockTotal Domestic Demand
2009             
Q121,6047,8029,53639,136-40238,708 21,6567,4719,38238,820-38138,351
Q221,2707,3339,03637,592-26437,354 21,6607,3108,91037,691-30437,473
Q321,0177,2498,55536,806-44236,403 21,5777,0728,70637,378-40536,987
Q421,0107,2778,67136,852-40436,416 21,6517,0978,77737,531-35237,079
2010             
Q120,7466,7277,28634,905-34734,545 21,6636,8077,36135,966-37335,556
Q220,9816,5917,67435,168-29134,860 21,9046,7867,85936,366-30036,095
Q321,0666,4506,86034,44819734,717 21,9626,6187,07935,70122236,017
Q420,8076,6907,65635,071-13634,913 21,6606,6907,87036,301-11636,112
2011             
Q121,2196,5296,98434,816-11034,717 21,8576,7197,28035,797-13935,643
Q221,2076,5968,19735,98226436,177 21,7686,6578,53436,89913937,006
Q320,9056,5856,99634,54536634,980 21,4056,5117,34035,43741135,988
Q421,2136,4497,64135,27626335,530 21,5736,4557,99636,05934336,373
2012             
Q120,7936,6648,10635,612-47035,179 21,2156,5688,38336,282-50335,770
Q221,0146,49610,78638,42156038,854 21,4416,38610,71038,58649638,960
Q321,2986,5007,45635,2764035,373 21,6876,4737,59335,7896235,975
Q421,3916,3056,97634,70916434,898 21,6166,3177,13935,04322335,291
2013             
Q121,0976,4527,91435,46539735,910 21,1736,4237,95035,58544736,017
Q221,2876,5847,30035,11538335,363 21,3586,5317,25934,82639935,079
Q321,6186,5978,31736,53052937,107 21,6156,6228,39336,73952737,402
Q421,6576,4808,15236,350-54135,901 21,5416,5178,11736,326-60635,831
2014             
Q121,9466,4508,73637,09746937,598 21,6176,5228,67836,93534937,197
Q222,1096,7788,62937,48831137,669 21,7646,7948,62737,09629537,250
Q322,2326,8689,24138,33436338,723 21,8526,8619,03637,70527738,113
Q422,6097,1329,85539,64775440,475 22,1897,1039,83739,11266639,905
2015             
Q122,7507,0879,81139,61479740,400 22,3886,9699,76139,23179839,866
Q222,9396,98311,70141,61845341,995 22,4906,81911,71441,00540641,316
Q323,2356,89412,58042,69370343,387 22,6816,69912,27241,57775942,455
Q423,4156,88313,07643,41168944,198 22,9146,60412,62742,08776143,016
Percentage change on previous quarter    Percentage change on previous quarter  
2009             
Q1-8.10.5-1.7-4.3 -4.3 -3.9-0.91.1-1.1 -1.0
Q2-1.5-6.0-5.2-3.9 -3.5 0.0-2.2-5.0-2.9 -2.3
Q3-1.2-1.2-5.3-2.1 -2.5 -0.4-3.3-2.3-0.8 -1.3
Q4-0.00.41.40.1 0.0 0.30.30.80.4 0.2
2010             
Q1-1.3-7.6-16.0-5.3 -5.1 0.1-4.1-16.1-4.2 -4.1
Q21.1-2.05.30.8 0.9 1.1-0.36.81.1 1.5
Q30.4-2.1-10.6-2.0 -0.4 0.3-2.5-9.9-1.8 -0.2
Q4-1.23.711.61.8 0.6 -1.41.111.21.7 0.3
2011             
Q12.0-2.4-8.8-0.7 -0.6 0.90.4-7.5-1.4 -1.3
Q2-0.11.017.43.3 4.2 -0.4-0.917.23.1 3.8
Q3-1.4-0.2-14.7-4.0 -3.3 -1.7-2.2-14.0-4.0 -2.7
Q41.5-2.19.22.1 1.6 0.8-0.98.91.8 1.1
2012             
Q1-2.03.36.11.0 -1.0 -1.71.84.80.6 -1.7
Q21.1-2.533.17.9 10.4 1.1-2.827.86.3 8.9
Q31.30.1-30.9-8.2 -9.0 1.11.4-29.1-7.2 -7.7
Q40.4-3.0-6.4-1.6 -1.3 -0.3-2.4-6.0-2.1 -1.9
2013             
Q1-1.42.313.52.2 2.9 -2.01.711.41.5 2.1
Q20.92.0-7.8-1.0 -1.5 0.91.7-8.7-2.1 -2.6
Q31.60.213.94.0 4.9 1.21.415.65.5 6.6
Q40.2-1.8-2.0-0.5 -3.2 -0.3-1.6-3.3-1.1 -4.2
2014
Q11.3-0.57.22.1 4.7 0.40.16.91.7 3.8
Q20.75.1-1.21.1 0.2 0.74.2-0.60.4 0.1
Q30.61.37.12.3 2.8 0.41.04.71.6 2.3
Q41.73.86.73.4 4.5 1.53.58.93.7 4.7
2015
Q10.6-0.6-0.5-0.1 -0.2 0.9-1.9-0.80.3 -0.1
Q20.8-1.519.35.1 3.9 0.5-2.220.04.5 3.6
Q31.3-1.37.52.6 3.3 0.9-1.84.81.4 2.8
Q40.8-0.23.91.7 1.9 1.0-1.42.91.2 1.3
              

Background Notes

 

Introduction 

This release gives the official quarterly national accounts estimates for Ireland. It provides the first set of results for quarter 4 of 2015 and preliminary results for the year 2015.

National accounts are compiled in the EU according to the European System of National and Regional Accounts (ESA) framework. In 2014, the new ESA 2010 framework replaced the previous ESA 95 version and all EU member states were required to adopt ESA 2010 by September 2014.  ESA 2010 is the European version of the current UN mandated international standards for national accounts statistics, the System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008.  The results for all years in this release are published on an ESA 2010 basis. For Ireland, the ESA 2010 change with the greatest impact on gross domestic product (GDP) is the new treatment of research and development (R&D) expenditure.  Under ESA95, R&D expenditure was treated as an ancillary cost to the main production of an enterprise, while under ESA 2010 R&D expenditure is recognised as capital investment.

In addition to the ESA 2010 changes, the results include additional estimates for illegal economic activities in line with the requirement from the European statistical agency, Eurostat, to include such estimates in the National Accounts from September 2014.

The aggregates shown have been derived from a wide variety of sources. As some of the available sources are of lesser reliability than those used for the annual national accounts, the quarterly estimates given in this release have a higher margin of error than the annual figures.

Revisions       

Minor revisions have been made to the previously published figures for 2015

Nace classification      

In compliance with EU regulations the Nace Rev. 2 classification system is used in Tables 1, 4 and Annex 2. (The national classification system that was used up to and including the Q4 2011 QNA results that were published in March 2012 was replaced with the Nace Rev. 2 classification system in the Q1 2012 results published in July 2012).

The results for the economy are shown for five sectors. The contents of the sectors conform to the Nace Rev. 2 system.  The “Publishing” industry is classified in the sector “Distribution, transport, software and communication.” In addition, enterprises in the Hotels and catering sector are also classified to this sector. The “Software” industry is also part of the “Distribution transport, software and communications” category in the Nace Rev. 2 classification.

In Tables 1 and 4 the following is the correspondence with the relevant sections of Nace Rev. 2:

Agriculture, forestry and fishing     Section A
Industry      Sections B to F
Distribution, transport, software & communications     Sections G to J
Public Administration and Defence    Section O
Other Services  

Sections K to N

and P to U

For further information on the Nace Rev. 2 classification of industrial activity, visit the CSO website:

http://www.cso.ie/en/surveysandmethodology/classifications/classificationofindustrialactivity.

 

Current Price       

For the annual accounts, GDP at current prices is calculated using two independent approaches i.e. the income and expenditure methods. On a quarterly basis, it is not possible to compile a reliable income based estimate. The estimates in current prices are on the expenditure basis only and these are supplied in Table 2. The balancing item (i.e. the statistical discrepancy) which is required to adjust the expenditure based estimate to the definitive measure of GDP (the average of income and expenditure) has been projected forward into 2015 in line with the trend in the aggregate of all the other expenditure items

Volumes   

At constant prices, two measures (output and expenditure) are used. These measures are produced using annual chain linked indices. On the output side, for each quarter, the volume growth measures at a detailed level are weighted together using value added weights of the previous year. Similarly, on the expenditure side, the growth estimates are weighted by expenditure weights of the previous year.  The average of the two measures is the growth measure used. The change over a period of years is then calculated by linking together the annual changes. The estimates in this release are referenced to 2013 values. A consequence of this method is that the individual components of GDP at reference year values do not add to the total.                                     

Definitions     

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total value added (output) in the production of goods and services in the country.

Net factor income from the rest of the world (NFI) is the difference between investment income (interest, profits etc.) and labour income earned abroad by Irish resident persons and companies (inflows) and similar incomes earned in Ireland by non-residents (outflows). The data are taken from the Balance of Payments statistics that are based on the BPM6 framework introduced in the Q1 2014 Balance of International Payments release. (BPM6 is consistent with ESA 2010; for further details please refer to Q1 2014 Balance of Payments release). The components of interest flows involving banks in the Net factor income item in the national accounts are constructed on the basis of “pure” interest rates (that is exclusive of FISIM).  Under BPM5 based Balance of Payments data released previously, this FISIM adjustment was not carried out. However, under the BPM6 framework introduced in 2014, FISIM is now being treated as part of financial services, rather than income, bringing it into line with the treatment of FISIM in national accounts statistics. The deflator used to generate the constant price figures is based on the implied quarterly price index for the exports of goods and services. In some years exceptional income payments have had to be deflated individually.

Gross National Product (GNP) is the sum of GDP and NFI. Because NFI is the difference between two large gross flows, its magnitude can fluctuate greatly from one quarter to another. This can lead to significant differences between the GDP and GNP growth rate for the same quarter.

 

Methodology        

Table 1: Output Measure

The estimation procedures are similar to those used for the annual accounts whenever possible.  However, in a number of cases the annual methodology cannot be followed due to the lack of relevant data quarterly.

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

The estimate for Agriculture is calculated by using the available sub-annual information for exports and slaughterings of animals, milk deliveries, stock changes (six-monthly), fertiliser and feeding stuffs usage etc. For some items, annual figures are distributed equally across the quarters. Monthly sea fish landings are used to estimate the quarterly output of fishing.

Industry 

The gross value added of manufacturing industy is calculated by applying monthly volume of production indices to the previous year's quarterly gross value added, including royalties. Royalties are separately deflated using the export price index and then deducted.

Changes in the volume of investment in construction projects are used to estimate the output of the building and construction sector.

Distribution, Transport, Software and Communications

For distribution the methods used are similar to those used for the annual calculation. They rely heavily on the retail sales indices and other CSO services inquiries. In the case of transport, most of the output measures used for the annual calculations are available on a quarterly basis. For communications the main data sources are direct inquiries to the suppliers, with additional data and trend estimation for some residual components.

Public Administration and Defence

The quarterly estimate of value added for public administration and defence has been calculated based on the employment trends in the public sector.

Other Services (incl. Rent)

The Other Services category covers a variety of service activities, some of which are surveyed on a quarterly basis by the CSO. For some services, information on outputs is not directly available on a quarterly basis. In most of these cases, quarterly estimates are derived using trends in related indicators. In a small number of residual cases, annual estimates are distributed equally across the quarters.

Taxes and Subsidies

Taxes and subsidies are deflated at a detailed level using appropriate price indices.  Value added taxes and excise duties have been accrued and recorded in the period in which the underlying expenditure took place.

Net factor income from the rest of the world (NFI)

The value of net income flows with the rest of the world in the Quarterly National Accounts release is generally consistent with the published Balance of Payments statistics except for the FISIM adjustment (see the definition of this item above).

 

Tables 2 and 3: Expenditure Measures

The various components of the expenditure based measure of GDP are defined in the annual National Income and Expenditure publication. The methods used for the quarterly series are similar to those used for the annual where possible but in many cases alternative methods have been applied.

Personal Consumption Expenditure is estimated using CSO data, such as the Retail Sales Indices together with some direct inquiries. Administrative data sources are used for some goods such as fuel and power products and motor vehicles. Constant price estimates are obtained using components of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Net Expenditure by Central and Local Government at current market prices is estimated using Government records. From Q2 of 2009 it is calculated net of the public sector pension levy introduced in March 2009. The constant price estimates of remuneration are derived by extrapolating base year estimates using an index of employment or using appropriate deflators for wages and are unaffected by the pension levy which is treated as a reduction in wage rates. Expenditure on goods and services is deflated partly by consumer price indices and partly by wholesale price indices.

Gross Domestic Fixed Capital Formation at current market prices includes expenditure on building and construction work and machinery and equipment. The quarterly estimates of dwellings are based on data from the Department of Environment’s (DoE) Quarterly Housing Bulletin. Information on other building and construction is based on the CSO’s quarterly index of production in Building and Construction. Quarterly estimates of commercial vehicles used in the business sector are estimated using administrative data. Estimates of other machinery and equipment and R&D (included under ESA 2010 standards) are made by reference to import statistics and the CSO Quarterly Capital Assets in Industry Inquiry. Current estimates are deflated to prices of the previous year using appropriate price indices such as components of the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and indices for construction activity.

Value of Physical Changes in Stocks at current pricescovers stock changes in the agricultural, industrial and distribution sectors and in intervention stocks. This item measures the actual value change in stocks between the beginning and end of quarter adjusted for any changes in the prices of the underlying commodities. Data on industrial and distribution stocks are taken from published and unpublished components of the CSO Quarterly Stocks Inquiry. Agricultural stocks are estimated from the results of CSO’s agricultural enumerations and statistics on animal slaughterings, etc. Constant price estimates are calculated by deflating the current estimates using relevant price indices and price data on agricultural and intervention stocks. Some adjustments have been made to the stocks values to improve the coherence of the quarterly accounts. These are judgmental adjustments to allow for within-year timing differences between the output and expenditure measures. Over a calendar year, these adjustments are neutral.

Exports and Imports of Goods and Services at current prices are taken from the CSO Balance of Payments series. An adjustment is made for FISIM (see the definition of “net factor income from the rest of the world” above). Current price estimates are converted to previous year prices using the available price indices, including export and import unit value indices.

A very significant fall in the pattern of distributive type trade with Great Britain in Electrical machinery and parts in 2002 has a very large influence on year-on-year comparisons of both exports and imports for 2003 and the latter part of 2002. While the comparisons of gross flows are considerably influenced, the net balance of trade is not significantly affected.

 

Seasonal Adjustment       

Seasonal adjustment is conducted using the direct seasonal adjustment approach. Under this approach, each individual time series is independently adjusted, i.e. aggregate series are adjusted without reference to the component series. This direct approach is applied to GDP and GNP and the seasonally adjusted GDP and GNP are not derived as the sum of the seasonally adjusted components (such as Personal Consumption, Exports etc.) but rather by seasonally adjusting the unadjusted values of GDP and GNP as shown in Tables 1 - 3. On this account, and also because of the statistical discrepancy in the original series, the sum of the seasonally adjusted components of GDP and GNP do not add to the respective seasonally adjusted GDP and GNP series. As part of the seasonal adjustment process, ARIMA models are identified for each series based on unadjusted data spanning Q1 1997 to Q1 2015. These models are then applied to the entire series (Q1 1997 to Q4 2015). Seasonal factors and the parameters of the ARIMA models are updated each quarter.

The adjustments are completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau to the unadjusted data. This methodology estimates seasonal factors while also taking into consideration factors that impact on the quality of the seasonal adjustment such as, for example:

• Calendar effects, e.g. the timing of Easter

• Outliers, temporary changes and level shifts in the series

For additional information on the use of X-12-ARIMA see Findley, D.F., B.C. Monsell, W.R. Bell, M.C. Otto, and B. Chen (1998), “New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Program”, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16, pp 127-177).

 

 

 

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