This release was compiled during the COVID-19 pandemic. For further information on the methodology applied in this release see the Technical Note on Monthly Unemployment Estimates and COVID-19 that was published alongside the August 2020 Monthly Unemployment Estimate release. For more information please also see the Press Statement Monthly Unemployment October 2021 and the Information Note on Implications of COVID-19 on the Live Register and the Monthly Unemployment Estimates.
| Seasonally Adjusted Figures | Non Seasonally Adjusted Figures | |||||
| Number of persons unemployed | Unemployment rate (%) | Traditional Unemployment rate (%) | COVID-19 Adjusted Unemployment rate (%) | |||
| October 2020 | 153,600 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 20.3 | ||
| September 2021 | 133,700 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 8.9 | ||
| October 2021 | 135,200 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 7.9 | ||
| Percentage Points | Percentage Points | Percentage Points | ||||
| Change in month | 1,500 | 0.0 | - 0.1 | -1.0 | ||
| Change in year | - 18,400 | - 1.1 | -1.1 | -12.4 | ||
The results published today show that the COVID-19 crisis has continued to have a significant impact on the labour market in Ireland in October 2021. While the standard measure of Monthly Unemployment was 5.2% in October 2021, the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment could indicate a rate as high as 7.9% if all claimants of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) were classified as unemployed. This alternative measure is down from a revised rate of 8.9% in September 2021 and down from 20.3% in October 2020.
When comparing the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment in different months, users should consider the impact of Government restrictions on the number of people in receipt of the PUP. Users should note that the PUP was closed to new applicants from 08 July 2021, while the process of possible transition of PUP recipients to a jobseeker’s payment began on 26 October 2021.
The application of the standard methodology gives a seasonally adjusted Monthly Unemployment Rate of 5.2% for October 2021, which remained unchanged from a revised rate of 5.2% in September 2021 and is down from 6.3% in October 2020. The seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed was 135,200 in October 2021, compared to 133,700 in September 2021. When compared to October 2020, there was an annual decrease of 18,400 in the seasonally adjusted number of persons unemployed. In October 2021, the Monthly Unemployment Rate was 5.2% for both males and females, see Table 1(a).
Breaking the results down by broad age group, the traditional Monthly Unemployment Rate for those aged 15 to 24 years was 10.4% in October 2021, while it was 4.4% for those aged 25 to 74 years, see Tables 1(b) and 1(c).
The methodology for the standard Monthly Unemployment Estimates involves forecasting the number of persons who are unemployed using the trend in the recipient Live Register series.
As well as the standard Monthly Unemployment Estimates for October 2021, this release also presents an alternative COVID-19 adjusted unemployment measure to estimate the share of the labour force in October 2021 that were not working due to unemployment or who were out of work due to COVID-19 and receiving the PUP. These estimates are presented in Table A1.
The lower bound of Monthly Unemployment rates and volumes presented in Table A1 are the non-seasonally adjusted estimates for October 2021 based on the standard methodology. These lower bounds are based on the assumption that none of those in receipt of the PUP would have been classified as unemployed if the payment did not exist.
If all claimants of the PUP were classified as unemployed, the upper bound, or COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment indicates a rate of 7.9% for all persons in October 2021, with a rate of 8.1% for males and 7.6% for females. Breaking the results down by broad age group, the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment is 11.1% for those aged 15 to 24 years and 7.4% for those aged 25 to 74 years. See Table A1.
The CSO first published the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment in April 2020 as part of the March 2020 Monthly Unemployment Estimates release. At the time, the COVID-19 income supports were set up as temporary measures to protect those who lost income from employment due to COVID-19.
Those benefitting from the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme (TWSS) and later the Employment Wage Subsidy Scheme (EWSS), having a connection to their employer, would continue to be classified as Employed using the internationally agreed criteria for reporting on official labour market status. It was not possible to ascertain how those in receipt of the PUP would be classified using the labour market status criteria. Because of this, the CSO established the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment as an upper bound measure for unemployment.
This COVID-19 adjusted measure assumes that all those who are in receipt of the PUP would be classified as Employed for the standard measure of Monthly Unemployment and considers them as Unemployed for the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment. This assumption would have held in March 2020 when those who started benefitting from the scheme were required to have lost income from employment to be eligible to receive the payment. The assumption is unlikely to hold now for all recipients given that the scheme has been extended and some recipients would now be in receipt of it for over 12 months.
While it is not possible to ascertain how those in receipt of the PUP in October 2021 would be classified in terms of official labour market status, any changes to the methodology for the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment would result in a lower rate than the current methodology. Information is not currently available to establish the status of those who are currently in receipt of the PUP based on the ILO definitions for employment and unemployment. Thus, the CSO have decided to continue with the previous methodology for the COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment. It is important for users to note that it is a short-term measure and designed to be an upper bound rate and that is still the case now.
It should be noted that the Department of Social Protection (DSP) has been paying arrears to recipients of the PUP, to take into account the movement of people in and out of employment. The first arrears payment occurred on 01 December 2020. All PUP arrears paid to date are included in the week of the entitlement period, rather than the week of payment.
The CSO will continue to evaluate the Live Register series as well as the current and any new income support schemes to determine whether any additional changes are required to the methodology for the traditional or COVID-19 adjusted estimates. Any changes the CSO may make to the methodology in the future will be clearly outlined to users in the statistical release and accompanying material.
|
Data in this release are subject to revision, caused by updates to the seasonally adjusted series, whenever new monthly data are added. In addition, it should be noted that larger revisions can occur when the most recent Labour Force Survey (LFS) data are included in the calculation process. The monthly unemployment estimates published today for October 2021 have incorporated LFS benchmarks up to Q3 2021 for the monthly estimates up to September 2021, while the estimates for October 2021 have been forecasted. For further information on COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Unemployment, please refer to our Technical note (updated for August 2020) and Information Note. |
| Table 1a Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - All persons aged 15-74 years | |||||||||
| Number of persons | Unemployment rate (%) | ||||||||
| Males | Females | All Persons | Males | Females | All Persons | ||||
| 2019 | October | 64,500 | 50,600 | 115,100 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.7 | ||
| November | 65,100 | 51,900 | 117,000 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.8 | |||
| December | 66,700 | 53,000 | 119,800 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | |||
| 2020 | January | 68,200 | 54,400 | 122,700 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.9 | ||
| February | 67,800 | 54,000 | 121,800 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.9 | |||
| March | 66,200 | 54,900 | 121,100 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |||
| April | 61,300 | 46,700 | 108,000 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.8 | |||
| May | 62,000 | 48,800 | 110,700 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.0 | |||
| June | 68,100 | 57,900 | 125,900 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 5.6 | |||
| July | 81,000 | 75,400 | 156,400 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 6.7 | |||
| August | 87,500 | 83,400 | 170,900 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 7.1 | |||
| September | 90,700 | 84,900 | 175,500 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 7.2 | |||
| October | 83,000 | 70,600 | 153,600 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 6.3 | |||
| November | 83,100 | 66,500 | 149,600 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 6.2 | |||
| December | 82,500 | 66,300 | 148,700 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 6.2 | |||
| 2021 | January | 90,400 | 76,700 | 167,200 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | ||
| February | 98,100 | 84,600 | 182,700 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.6 | |||
| March | 102,600 | 89,300 | 191,900 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | |||
| April | 103,200 | 86,900 | 190,100 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.6 | |||
| May | 95,400 | 79,100 | 174,600 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.9 | |||
| June | 86,800 | 72,600 | 159,400 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 6.3 | |||
| July | 78,400 | 67,900 | 146,300 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 | |||
| August | 72,500 | 66,000 | 138,400 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | |||
| September | 71,300 | 62,400 | 133,700 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.2 | |||
| October | 72,000 | 63,200 | 135,200 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | |||
| Table 1b Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 15-24 years | |||||||||
| Number of persons | Unemployment rate (%) | ||||||||
| Males | Females | All Persons | Males | Females | All Persons | ||||
| 2019 | October | 17,600 | 14,500 | 32,200 | 11.9 | 10.3 | 11.1 | ||
| November | 18,600 | 14,400 | 33,000 | 12.4 | 9.9 | 11.2 | |||
| December | 20,600 | 14,600 | 35,100 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 11.5 | |||
| 2020 | January | 22,600 | 14,500 | 37,000 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 11.5 | ||
| February | 22,500 | 14,700 | 37,200 | 13.6 | 9.8 | 11.8 | |||
| March | 19,700 | 16,200 | 35,900 | 13.0 | 11.8 | 12.4 | |||
| April | 15,000 | 17,300 | 32,300 | 12.0 | 15.0 | 13.4 | |||
| May | 14,100 | 18,800 | 32,900 | 12.4 | 17.6 | 14.9 | |||
| June | 17,600 | 20,700 | 38,300 | 15.2 | 18.7 | 16.9 | |||
| July | 26,900 | 22,900 | 49,800 | 20.2 | 18.1 | 19.2 | |||
| August | 30,500 | 24,400 | 54,900 | 21.5 | 18.1 | 19.8 | |||
| September | 31,900 | 26,400 | 58,400 | 22.0 | 19.1 | 20.6 | |||
| October | 24,000 | 22,700 | 46,700 | 17.5 | 17.2 | 17.4 | |||
| November | 22,200 | 22,500 | 44,700 | 16.3 | 17.4 | 16.8 | |||
| December | 18,500 | 21,800 | 40,400 | 13.8 | 17.2 | 15.4 | |||
| 2021 | January | 17,800 | 25,000 | 42,700 | 13.1 | 19.2 | 16.1 | ||
| February | 21,100 | 27,300 | 48,400 | 14.9 | 20.5 | 17.6 | |||
| March | 25,600 | 29,100 | 54,700 | 17.1 | 21.0 | 19.0 | |||
| April | 30,900 | 30,000 | 60,900 | 19.5 | 20.8 | 20.2 | |||
| May | 29,900 | 26,200 | 56,100 | 18.4 | 17.8 | 18.1 | |||
| June | 27,000 | 22,800 | 49,800 | 16.2 | 15.0 | 15.7 | |||
| July | 22,800 | 19,500 | 42,300 | 13.5 | 12.3 | 12.9 | |||
| August | 19,200 | 18,100 | 37,300 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 11.1 | |||
| September | 18,800 | 17,100 | 35,800 | 10.6 | 10.1 | 10.3 | |||
| October | 18,400 | 17,500 | 35,900 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.4 | |||
| Table 1c Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - persons aged 25-74 years | |||||||||
| Number of persons | Unemployment rate (%) | ||||||||
| Males | Females | All Persons | Males | Females | All Persons | ||||
| 2019 | October | 46,800 | 36,100 | 82,900 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.9 | ||
| November | 46,500 | 37,500 | 84,000 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.9 | |||
| December | 46,200 | 38,400 | 84,600 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | |||
| 2020 | January | 45,700 | 40,000 | 85,600 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.9 | ||
| February | 45,300 | 39,400 | 84,600 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | |||
| March | 46,500 | 38,700 | 85,200 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |||
| April | 46,300 | 29,400 | 75,700 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 3.7 | |||
| May | 47,900 | 30,000 | 77,900 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | |||
| June | 50,400 | 37,200 | 87,600 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.4 | |||
| July | 54,100 | 52,400 | 106,600 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 5.1 | |||
| August | 57,000 | 59,000 | 116,000 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 5.5 | |||
| September | 58,700 | 58,400 | 117,200 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 5.4 | |||
| October | 59,000 | 47,900 | 106,900 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.0 | |||
| November | 60,900 | 44,000 | 104,900 | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.9 | |||
| December | 63,900 | 44,400 | 108,400 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 5.1 | |||
| 2021 | January | 72,700 | 51,800 | 124,400 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | ||
| February | 77,000 | 57,300 | 134,300 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 6.3 | |||
| March | 77,000 | 60,200 | 137,300 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 6.4 | |||
| April | 72,300 | 56,800 | 129,200 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.9 | |||
| May | 65,600 | 52,900 | 118,500 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 5.4 | |||
| June | 59,800 | 49,800 | 109,600 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | |||
| July | 55,500 | 48,400 | 104,000 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | |||
| August | 53,200 | 47,900 | 101,100 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.5 | |||
| September | 52,500 | 45,400 | 97,900 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 | |||
| October | 53,600 | 45,700 | 99,300 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.4 | |||
| Table A1 Covid-19 Adjusted Monthly Unemployment Estimates classified by sex and age group | |||||||||
| Number of persons out of work1 | Monthly Unemployment Rate %1 | ||||||||
| Month | Males | Females | Total | Males | Females | Total | |||
| October 2021 | Persons aged 15-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 68,776 | 58,664 | 127,440 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | |
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 112,200 | 93,046 | 205,246 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 7.9 | |||
| Persons aged 15-24 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 16,534 | 15,350 | 31,884 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 20,635 | 18,111 | 38,746 | 11.4 | 10.8 | 11.1 | |||
| Persons aged 25-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 52,242 | 43,314 | 95,556 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 91,565 | 74,935 | 166,500 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 7.4 | |||
| September 2021 | Persons aged 15-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 71,958 | 59,439 | 131,397 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.0 | |
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 127,602 | 105,264 | 232,866 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | |||
| Persons aged 15-24 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 18,577 | 16,300 | 34,877 | 9.8 | 9.0 | 9.4 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 24,541 | 20,578 | 45,119 | 13.0 | 11.4 | 12.2 | |||
| Persons aged 25-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 53,381 | 43,139 | 96,520 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 4.3 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 103,061 | 84,686 | 187,747 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.4 | |||
| October 2020 | Persons aged 15-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 79,317 | 65,327 | 144,644 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 6.0 | |
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 250,557 | 239,792 | 490,349 | 19.1 | 21.6 | 20.3 | |||
| Persons aged 15-24 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 21,771 | 19,937 | 41,708 | 15.6 | 15.1 | 15.4 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 62,150 | 67,020 | 129,170 | 44.7 | 50.8 | 47.7 | |||
| Persons aged 25-74 years | Lower Bound (Traditional MUR) | 57,546 | 45,390 | 102,936 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.8 | ||
| Upper Bound (COVID-19 Adjusted MUR) | 188,407 | 172,772 | 361,179 | 16.1 | 17.7 | 16.8 | |||
| 1 Not seasonally adjusted | |||||||||
| 2 Revised | |||||||||
The purpose of this release is to provide a detailed series of monthly unemployment estimates. The release contains both monthly unemployment rates and monthly unemployment volumes.
The Labour Force Survey (LFS) provides benchmark estimates of employment and unemployment for each quarter since the beginning of 1998. These quarterly benchmark estimates are then used to compile monthly data using the Proportional Denton method. The main characteristic of this method is that the monthly Live Register series is used as an indicator to disaggregate the quarterly LFS unemployment series into a monthly series in such a way as to minimise the differences between two consecutive months. It also ensures that the average of three months in a particular calendar quarter is equal to the corresponding LFS estimate.
For months where the quarterly unemployment data is not yet available, the ratio of the LFS monthly estimate to the Live Register monthly estimate (i.e. the benchmark to indicator ratio) is forecast forward in order to extrapolate a monthly LFS estimate. This approach adheres to agreed international practice.
Please see the Technical Note published alongside the August 2020 release which outlines minor changes made to the methodology used for results presented in this release following analysis of recipient and non-recipient claims in the Live Register Series.
To correct for typical seasonal patterns, the data series included have been concurrently seasonally adjusted. This seasonal adjustment is completed by applying the X-12-ARIMA model, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. In the case of these monthly unemployment estimates, seasonal adjustment is conducted using the indirect approach, where each individual series is independently adjusted. To preserve consistency between the individual and aggregate series, the series for gender, age group and total monthly unemployed are then created from these component series. The series for monthly unemployment rates are likewise created from these component series.
Seasonally adjusting the Monthly Unemployment series during the COVID-19 crisis period will be challenging until the scale and shape of its impact on the time series is better understood. This initial seasonally adjusted result might be revised for some months ahead as future observations become available. Users should be aware that there is increased uncertainty around the seasonally adjusted figures during this period.
Further information regarding the LFS and Live Register series are available from each respective release.
Hide Background Notes
Scan the QR code below to view this release online or go to
http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/mue/monthlyunemploymentoctober2021/
Show Table 1a Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - all persons aged 15-74 years
Hide Table 1a Seasonally adjusted monthly unemployment by sex - all persons aged 15-74 years