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Technical Note - Live Register August 2020

CSO statistical publication, 07 September 2020, 11am

Technical Note – Live Register August 2020

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Live Register: Recipient versus non-recipient claims

The Live Register measures the numbers of claims registered for Jobseekers Benefit (JB) Jobseekers Allowance (JA) or credited contributions¹.

The Live Register can be considered as consisting of recipients, where a claim has been awarded and the person is in receipt of a payment or credited PRSI contributions, and non-recipients, where the person is not in receipt of a payment. Non-recipient claims include:

Awarded claims where payment has been suspended
Claims pending award
Disallowed claims

While most Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) recipients are not counted on the Live Register, the payment has had an impact on Live Register trends. There are cases where both a PUP and jobseeker claim belonging to the same person have been registered with the DEASP, but where no jobseeker payment is being made. This has resulted in overlaps between the PUP (where they are a recipient) and the Live Register (where they are a non-recipient). In cases where PUP claims transfer to the Live Register, this will mean a decrease in PUP without an equivalent increase in the Live Register. In cases of PUP exits to employment, non-recipient Live Register claims are being identified and closed where appropriate.

This process is currently underway within DEASP and relates primarily to cases where a person who received a PUP has since closed the claim and reported a return to employment. This will impact the Live Register totals, as some of these non-recipient jobseeker claims were included on the Live Register, but their jobseeker claims were not automatically closed at that time.

The Live Register release for August 2020 was originally scheduled to be published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) last Thursday (03 September 2020). It was postponed and is being published today 07 September 2020. The Live Register release was postponed to allow the CSO some time to analyse the recipient versus non-recipient trends of the Live Register and to consider what impact the findings of that analysis might have on the August 2020 Live Register release.

Table 1 and Figure 1 present the breakdown of recipients versus non-recipients on the Live Register from January 2019 until August 2020.

	Recipients	Non-recipients
Jan 2019	179092	20535
Feb 2019	178194	18740
Mar 2019	174730	17677
Apr 2019	170186	22932
May 2019	171664	18203
June 2019	175366	21742
July 2019	184101	22295
Aug 2019	180221	18872
Sept 2019	164388	19395
Oct 2019	159056	21403
Nov 2019	159724	17830
Dec 2019	168137	13859
Jan 2020	164507	19248
Feb 2020	164547	18069
Mar 2020	167854	37355
Apr 2020	159831	54910
May 2020	163956	61706
June 2020	169976	50895
July 2020	181438	63124
Aug 2020	181079	44765

Table 1 Live Register total classified by Recipient and Non-recipient January 2019 to August 2020
		Recipients	Non-Recipients	Total
2019	January	179,092	20,535	199,627
	February	178,194	18,740	196,934
	March	174,730	17,677	192,407
	April	170,186	22,932	193,118
	May	171,664	18,203	189,867
	June	175,366	21,742	197,108
	July	184,101	22,295	206,396
	August	180,221	18,872	199,093
	September	164,388	19,395	183,783
	October	159,056	21,403	180,459
	November	159,724	17,830	177,554
	December	168,137	13,859	181,996

2020	January	164,507	19,248	183,755
	February	164,547	18,069	182,616
	March	167,854	37,355	205,209
	April	159,831	54,910	214,741
	May	163,956	61,706	225,662
	June	169,976	50,895	220,871
	July	181,438	63,124	244,562
	August	181,079	44,765	225,844

Open in Excel: TN-LR2020M08 Table 1 (XLS 30KB)

Table 1 and Figure 1 both show that the while the number of non-recipients was relatively stable from the start of 2019 until February 2020, the number increased substantially after February 2020 before seeing a sharp decline in August 2020. The number of non-recipients prior to March 2020 ranged from a low of 13,859 in December 2019 to a high of 22,932 in April 2019.

The number of non-recipients on the Live Register doubled between February 2020 (18,069) and March 2020 (37,355) and increased again each month to May 2020 (61,706) before falling slightly in June 2020 (50,895) and increasing again in July (63,124). It is important to note that while the total Live Register fell by 18,718 between July 2020 and August 2020, this fall was mostly in the non-recipient numbers which were down 18,359 (98% of the overall decrease).

Given that the LR series has always included non-recipient claims, none of the values published over this period are incorrect. However, the CSO may consider revision of the Live Register to improve the usability of the series.

This will require assessing the impact of the non-recipients and particularly those who are in receipt of the PUP enumerated on the Live Register to decide on the correct approach to take. The time table and methodology for these revisions to the Live Register series will be clearly outlined to users as soon as a decision is made in relation to them.

For now, the CSO have decided to publish the Live Register for August 2020 using the usual methodology but are also presenting this recipient and non-recipient analysis to provide information and transparency around the impact of non-recipient claimants on the overall Live Register totals in recent months.

Footnote: 1 - For example, jobseekers who have exhausted their entitlement to Jobseeker's Benefit but who do not qualify for Jobseeker's Allowance due to their means, they may be entitled to sign for credited PRSI contributions to protect their other social insurance entitlements (State Pension, State Maternity Benefit, Illness Benefit and other benefits that are based on the number of PRSI contributions)